SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

Which means between 1 and 2 million deaths in Germany alone!

I heard an interesting broadcast yesterday about the flu and coronavirus, for those people saying the flu is worse because many more people die of the flu than of coronavirus. The guy pointed out that extraordinary measures are being taken because of Covid19's significantly higher death-rate. In France, over 10,000 people die of the flu in an ordinary year. He explained that that is because we don't take very serious steps to prevent it spreading. To have that many deaths, something like 11 million people catch it. He then went on to make the implication of that clear: if we let 11 million people in France catch Covid19, we are talking about nearly 200,000 deaths!

In the US, Trump is thinking the same thing, just looking at the raw numbers. He says: "25,000 people die of the flu every year, and only a handful have died of coronavirus, so it isn't as bad." But the figure for flu deaths means that huge number of Americans catch the flu every year. If the same number catch Covid19, we are talking about at least half a million deaths in the US alone!

And since the Americans lost so much time in actually doing anything about it, and so many of them still don't take it seriously, that could well happen.

a disgrace? It was probably his most ego-free non grandstanding short & sweet speeche. My wife actually watched it and she never watches any president speak about anything.
And ironically it came on just after Survivor ended.

Here's the dilemma: it appears (correct me if I'm wrong) that you don't think the U.S. and Europe are doing enough, fast enough. If we go total lockdown then a lot of people will say it's draconian overreaction and spreading fear and panic. As for 70 percent of Germany getting infected? No fucking way unless they literally went on a mandatory "cough in each other's faces" prpgram.
So what IYHO should be done whether locally, nationally, or internationally?

The 70% figure comes from the WHO. It's what they say could potentially happen if aggressive measures are not taken. But Merkel appears to have adopted it as a prediction - and her policies, which emphasise "maintaining economic life" in her words, do little to mitigate against it.

There needs to be the kind of lockdown that has been shown to work in Asia and that we're seeing in Italy before things get as bad as they have there. I don't think you realise how bad that is. Their capacity is overwhelmed and they've now been reduced to treating patients selectively - that is denying it to elderly patients who they think won't survive.

Too bad for anyone saying that's an overreaction. They're wrong, and they'll get over it. We should be guided by the medical science.

See here - the head of the WHO criticising "alarming levels of inaction". Some countries lack "capacity" or "resources" but "some countries are struggling with a lack of resolve".

this. Is. Real.

that meme should be in quarantine!

Public apology to @Zombie : you were right. shits really going to hit the fan.

(off to scrounge some toilet paper from ebay)

The Irish government has just closed all schools, colleges and childcare facilities from tomorrow, and all indoor gatherings of 100 people or more and outdoor gatherings of 500 or more will be cancelled. I expect our office to be closed shortly and to be told to work from home. Hopefully the UK will follow suit.

membership drives must be fun. Is this by referral only? What do volunteers do?

The best article around.

Yes. Administration officials had to clarify several of his statements afterward. Dipshit can't even get a prepared speech right.

You're actually married? Remind me to send your wife a sympathy card.

thanks, what he says makes a lot of sense, with graphs and stats to back him up, but I don't see that he's an epidemiologist or statistician.

His main point is cases are doubling everyday in the rest of the world including the US. Social distancing now is the best course of action. I can't dispute this.

Interestingly the link he posts to the "stay at home club" (competition for Anc's club) lists a fortune 500 company I work for, as encouraging people to work from home if they can. This isn't the company's policy, it's: we'll close the office once there is a confirmed case onsite.

Credit where credit is due: Zombie has been the only right-leaning poster on the board to consistently take the whole thing seriously, and that from very early on.

Wife's a nurse at a local Atlanta hospital. Confirmed cases at their facility are up from 2 yesterday to 6 today.

To anyone who didn't bother reading this, or didn't want to because it's Rick who posted it: I very, very highly recommend reading this article. And taking it seriously. It confirms, and presents in serious order with a very careful analysis, the things I have been hearing from those who are the most informed.

The sky is truly falling, and we need to admit it and take steps to protect ourselves and those we care about, especially if they are old or in poor health.

You have a failed casino owner and reality television host as your commander-in-chief. He's backed up by a guy who thinks prayer will make the virus go away.

There's a public health emergency.

What could possibly go wrong, America?

The reality is that the sky isn't falling.

This is a serious health threat and measures need to be taken, but the politicans and media are fueling hysteria.

All the evidence points to the fact that more than 80% of people who contract the virus will recover without the need for hospitalization or medical intervention. I suspect that number is even higher because it's only based on reported cases, and it's quite clear that the actual number of cases is likely several magnitudes greater than the official number.

Also, if you're under the age of 80 and in generally good health, you have a greater likelihood of dying in a car crash than from COVID-19.

The real problem is the 10 to 20% of people who may require medical intervention. The velocity and severity of the virus can quickly cripple health care systems.

Western governments have been slow to respond. Social media and even mainstream media have been fueling paranoia and fear.

It seems to me that rational discussion has gone bye-bye. That's why we are fucked.

If you think the sky is falling, it's only because we're making it fall.

It's not just America.

Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'

Define hysteria. There will be millions dead given current trajectories.

@RickDeckard - please point out, factually, where I'm incorrect.

Millions die for all kinds of reasons every day.

We're honestly past the point of containment on this virus. It's out there. The only thing we can do now is deal with it as best we can, but shutting the world down isn't going to solve anything.

I'm actually thankful it's not something like Ebola. The fatality rate of this virus is merciful by comparison.

I'd argue that your car crash statistic is misleading. What's it based on?

But the real problem is not your facts but how you're reacting to them. You seem to think that 20% of people getting a serious illness, and a significant proportion of those dying from it is no big deal. As a young healthy adult, I personally might be fine if I get coronavirus, but that is hardly the point. I have a duty of care toward others in society who may not be as resilient.

These are millions more and there are ways to prevent it which we aren't taking. Why is that okay?

Shutting things down in at risk areas is exactly how we deal with it as best we can - to slow its progress and to given healthcare systems a chance to deal with it more gradually.

I'm not saying it's not a big deal; I'm saying that realistically containment is no longer an option (read the article you posted). Anything we do now is shutting the barn door after the horses have fled.

I have parents and in-laws who are 80+ years old. I've told them to stay home except for necessary outings (groceries and medical appointments) and haven't visited them since the beginning of February. The most vulnerable people should have been protected since it became obvious that this virus preys on the weak. Western governments didn't do that. Stocking up on toilet paper and hand sanitizer ain't going to save them now.

You can accuse of me being heartless or bloodless but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. Short of completely shutting down civilization, nothing is going to stop the spread.

That's not remotely what the article says. It argues that containment has failed but also argues very strongly for aggressive action to mitigate the spread, and it illustrates the different outcomes that are to be expected depending on how early that is done.

The Holy Stock market agrees with you.

For the second time this week, fourth in the last forty years trading was halted as the markets crashed.

How many times did he refer to it as a "foreign virus" in his badly-fumbled address to the nation?

But remember: Joe Biden is a dangerous man to have as president, because he doesn't speak very well. We can't have someone like that as president...

The board backs itself up at 12 a.m. Pacific. For ~5-10 minutes all new posts go sit in the ether until it finishes.

Basically it is a large lounge/club space in the front with a back area for folks to play in. Everything but the folks taking money and a manager is done by volunteers. Door/wristbands, bartenders, cocktail servers, waiting area hosts, etc. Plus folks to give tours/new member orientations and monitors (aka Creeper Keepers) that work in the back making sure someone intoxicated doesn’t come back, single men aren’t wandering the play rooms, consent is being followed, etc. Also monitors change sheets after and clean up.