SARS II: Respiratory Boogaloo

Especially for...naaah....

Let's hear those measures.

When describing them, keep in mind that if the R0 goes above 1 (ie every infected person infects more than just one other person) you have exponential growth and it's also game over for the economy.

Some other numbers: there are 1.1 million HIV+ Americans, and there have been almost 1.5 million cases of coronavirus in the US. Less than 20K people a year die from HIV in the US. The estimated total of Americans who've died from HIV is 450K. That averages out to just over 12K Americans a year since 1983. We're averaging (very roughly) about 15K Americans dying a month from the coronavirus. If it continues at that same rate, then in just over 2 years, it will have killed more Americans than HIV has since 1983. In the 1950s, before the development of a vaccine, 25K people contracted polio each year.

And please also keep in mind that epidemiology has been its own field of study since more than half a century, hundreds of the brightest minds of three generations all over the world have worked on it, and the very best minds currently alive in the field, including Fauci, agree on what needs to be done in this situation. So spare a sentence or two on explaining how it came about that you, @oldfella1962, are a more reliable source -- especially since the bet for which we are supposed to rely on you rather than them puts at least hundreds of thousands, more likely millions, of lives at stake.

That’s the Oxford vaccine (originally targeting MERS, so they’re doing combined II/III trials), but I haven’t heard of anything in the US that’s at that level.

Here's a simple analogy for the cognitively unsophisticated folks on this board:

When your house is on fire, you don't check the efficacy of your smoke alarms or waste time developing plans to mitigate fire risks.

Your priority is to get the fuck out of the house and contain the fire.

COVID-19 is the fire. It's called a novel coronavirus for a reason (look up the etymology of "novel".)

I'd argue we're still in the phase where we need to get the fuck out of the house and contain the fire. All other considerations are secondary at this stage.

(My apologies; I realized I used some big words in this post that may confuse some people.)

https://www.facebook.com/1024792571/posts/10220247402428292/?

Could those of us who can't log into Facebook have a hint of what it's about?

Sorry, this content isn't available right now
The link you followed may have expired, or the page may only be visible to an audience you're not in.

I guess you have to have an account.
I can't find a way to save the video clip itself.

Statewide cases are dropping. This is due to metro Atlanta and the bulk of GA population still sheltering in place. Businesses are being very conservative about reopening if they open at all.

In rural GA the story is different. Infections are rising.

Sorry, I made this up, but I think it's what's happening based on casual observation of the population in Atlanta and watching the state statistics by county.

I have been commuting uninterrupted as an essential cog in an essential wheel () so I have a front seat view of local businesses in Marietta and Atlanta. Also my wife is a staff nurse at a major metropolitan hospital.

Here are the GA tables if you're interested. Unfortunately they don't offer histories by county, just for the state.

An extract tells the story. Here are the top counties for infections per 100K:


Atlanta is Fulton county; it's nowhere near that high:

here's one of the factors in rural Georgia concerning rates versus actual numbers of cases. If a rural county with a small population has one major outbreak in a church (thanks god!) for example, their rate will of course skyrocket. The rate will go from near zero to holy shit! very quickly because there isn't enough of a total population to absorb one incident of recklessness. Also if that county's rate was near zero people will be more likely to have their guard down and thus be more vulnerable.

That's why assuming anybody could be carrying/spreading it is a good strategy especially since people can be asymptomatic. I hope testing & collecting is being ramped up. It may be too late for round #1 but when COVID comes back full force for round #2 having testing up and rolling will really pay off.

Uh, oh.

Government: everyone stay inside so you don’t get sick!

MWA: fancy a tour of the dump?

https://whotv.com/news/coronavirus/...-offering-landfill-tour-to-help-ease-boredom/

I'm still keeping a spreadsheet with the number of new infections, total infections, deaths, recovered, etc for the U.S.. With the numbers I'm using, the U.S. has only had one day where the number of new infections fell below 20k since March 29th. And only one day so far where the number of recoveries has been larger than the number of infections. On the average, the number of recoveries vs the number of new infections is at just over 12 percent, or 1 recovery for every 8 new infections.

However, the number of recoveries is slowly outpacing the number of deaths, in the last eleven days the number of recoveries vs deaths has increased from 3 to 1, to 4 to 1.

This chart shows the number of new infections per day since March 1st.



This one the number of deaths



This one is for the number of recoveries.

that is so Mitchellville! Anyway I guess it is true: one man's trash is another man's treasure!

The "Government" in this case lifted the stay at home orders yesterday, so I'm not getting your point.

New Study Confirms Cats Can’t Spread COVID-19, But Would If Given Option

Idiot woman. They should strip her license since she certainly no longer can pass her certification for a cosmo license, and does not know you have to obey OSHA guidelines as a licensed salon operator because OSHA defines safety like disinfection, chemical safety, ventilation, and everything you do to protecty you, your workers, and your customers when dealing with products that will burn and kill you.

This is a woman who does not want to believe in safety and she works with lye, acetone, heat generating nail adhesion products, products that will burn your flesh with chemical and physical heat, cutting objects, objects that will grow fungus and bacteria, cross contamination of disease, all sorts of bacteria, skin lesions, bleeding, viruses, and chemical hair dyes.

She is bitching about OSHA when she should know cosmotologists have suffered huge health problems because there were not safety guidelines, worker protections, and regulations. Someone should pour her a big old pile of strong activated hair straightener and tell her if she wants to open she can eat the bowl and we will let her open if she survives. Small point, she won't. She would die painfully as the flesh in her throat is litterally dissolved by the PH 13 + base.

Oops.

three mistakes in three weeks? I support Kemp's opening up some businesses Georgia a little earlier than planned (while delaying the opening of bars & nightclubs from the original opening date) because it did not result in bodies stacked up. It was very low key and managed well by all businesses involved. But fudging the numbers? Not once but thrice? You can't blame that on the federal government. Trump let all the states manage things on their own, and mayors within states can manage things as they see fit, up to a point.

If I were Stacy Abrams I'd be all over Kemp's ass about this - if she wants to be the next Georgia governor this is good ammunition.

One State's Virus Tests Are No Good, Company Says
AdventHealth admits that 35K tests are unreliable


Emphasis mine:

The results of more than 35,000 COVID-19 tests ordered by a Florida-based health care system and performed by a third-party lab are unreliable, the company said Saturday. According to AdventHealth, a faith-based health care system, the situation has created "unacceptable delays." AdventHealth didn't name the third-party lab but said it had terminated its contract with the lab, the AP reports.

The tests were a mixture of positive and negative results, and some had been at the lab for a while. About 25,000 of the unreliable tests were in the central Florida area. AdventHealth president and CEO Terry Shaw said the company will notify patients who are impacted. AdventHealth has 49 hospitals in nine states. Company spokeswoman Melanie Lawhorn said two of those states are joint venture systems and were not affected by the unreliable testing.

Sailors on Carrier Get Coronavirus — a Second Time
Five sailors on the sidelined the USS Theodore Roosevelt test positive for a second time

Seriously, what the FUCK are you people doing?!

Floridian #1- How about we not fuck THIS up?

Floridian #2- Yeah....but see...we're FLORIDA. Failure is our thing. It's who we are. If we start succeeding, it'll ruin the joke.

Floridian #1- Yeah...you're right. *Starts failing with gusto*

It is called floriduh for a reason

Proving, once again, that America is number one: "No one is going to beat us at this coronavirus game! We'll outscore them all!"

Seriously, though, not all the American leaders are so bad. A lot of Democrats (not all, unfortunately) and even a few Republicans have actually responded to the pandemic in a more or less rational way.

But then Trump and his legions of counkewas make fun of them, say they are purposely doing it to hurt the economy and Trump's re-election chances, and call them "chicken littles" for taking seriously the worst health-care crisis the world has known in a century.

Even though the virus spread so fast initially through Europe (I suspect more and more that that was due to the prevalence of public transportation, where Americans tend to drive around in their own cars), I am very glad to be in Europe right now. The curves are looking much more reasonable for most European countries than for the USA. In the USA, if you take out a handful of hard-hit states (with Democratic governors...) that have managed to bring the pandemic pretty much under control, the number of cases is actually still rising.

Has someone done the calculation you mention at the end in detail? That is, comparing the development across all states with rational covid measures against those without? I wonder how much the open borders level the difference. Scandinavia has outrageously different results within a comparatively small area, and that would seem impossible if they hadn't closed the borders.

We're a nation that has denied the existence of global warming for decades, that managed to crash the global economy because some guys figured out they could make a lot of money if they fudge the paperwork, and we elected a "reality" show "star" as President, what the fuck did you think we were going to do? I know that it's fun to blame the weird actions of ancient rulers on things like inbreeding, and while that probably didn't help, the simple fact is that they did that shit because no one ever held them accountable for their actions. America is a nation that has allowed businesses to do basically whatever they wanted, so long as they appeared to turn a profit. And instead of punishing those executives when they fucked up, we patted them on the back and gave them another company to run into the ground. If a politician lied to us, we simply re-elected them, instead of running them out of town on a rail. Globally, we did what we wanted, and everyone, generally, kept their mouth shut because they wanted to do business with us, instead of telling us to stop that shit. The only question remaining is if Trump is the culmination of all that, or if he's merely the harbinger of what's to come.