The Sixth (!) Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread

I just talked with my sister in Ann Arbor last night. In her own words, she "leans Republican" (I'm the black sheep of the family; by American standards I would probably count as a socialist...), though she also has plenty of bad things to say about Trump. She said that the plot to kidnap Whitmer has "given Republicans a bad name". With all the other advantages the Democrats have right now in MI, anything that gives bad press to the Republicans is going to hurt them even more. I'm guessing 55%-45% Biden when the votes are all counted. Would love for it to be even more, but for MI that's already a pretty hefty advance.

Trump 320 EV or better.

If wrong it's because I overestimated the "shy" voter by a few percent.

Tangent prediction - if Biden wins my income next few years will be a lot higher than under Trump second term (labor costs the most variable factor in my line).

This will be fun to refer back to in a couple weeks.

Because you overestimated the shy Trump vote? Your dear leader will not be happy to hear that you aren’t following the party line that the only way Trump loses is if the election is rigged. What’s the penalty for such disloyalty, anyway?

I predict this will age as well as your Covid-19 predictions.

^You mean where I pretty much nailed it on everything I asked or claimed, from the beginning? That covid?

Starting with Qs about the denominator, and the likely grossly wrong "death rates" as a consequence, or the simple, but apparently elusive to the left, point that the cure must not be worse than the affliction, and early on advising that imo a lockdown of all was faulty when instead a 'lockdown' (or special treatment) be taken only for those in the high risk, so as to most effectively minimize the negative impacts.

Or do you mean when I claimed the experts were full of shit and probably wrong, or speculated that when Fauchi claimed masks don't work he might have been purposely lying to save stock in PPE long before he confessed to that lie?

Nice life you have there in fantasyville?

^ Wow, you're delusional. None of that is based in reality.

Made 5 claims - here are the links in support of my memory/reality.

1-bogus death rates

2-don’t let cure be worse than harm
and this.

3-better approach is to protect high risk, not lockdown all
EDIT:Oh, and this link is better for #3, when in March I claimed a better approach of protecting only the high-risk, and not locking down the entire economy.

4-all experts are full of shit. or this

5-turns out I speculated why our Surgeon Gen’l lied, not Fauci; oops, sue me, people talkin out of their ass sometimes all look alike

Bonus, raising Q about different measurement standards, people die w covid or because of it? from March 22

As for my very first prediction about bogus death rates, this month WHO claimed 1/10 of earthlings infected by covid. Around 780 million infected according to WHO. WHO is full of crap as I've claimed repeatedly, so let's divide their "best estimate" by 5, which means 156 million infected. Do the math yourself (check the Biden News Channels for latest deathcount) about who accurately predicted actual death rates after we fully emerge from the 'fog of war.'

You're supporting your own reality with your own posts? Do you realize there's a whole universe outside of tuttle world?

How about supporting your claims with actual references?

The point is that my predictions & comments are all time-stamped - which I'll agree only confirms that my opinions were what I claimed them (remembered them) to be, at the time.

So, for the record, are yours. : P

OTOH, these are among the things that I posted the following month, in March:
March 2

March 22

March 23

March 24

March 25

The Q isn't whether or not I'm wrong or right, but whether my version of reality conforms to Lanz's in this context.

And my point has never been that I'm smart or dumb, but that the choice is sources of info, which determines whose predictions are more likely to turn out to be right? Imo the left and anti Trumpers have constructed a reality based largely on garbage purporting to be "news"

/interest level

I keep timestamps of my balls entering your mouth

Go away Child. Better yet, pass the bar and get a job (uberdriver counts), and then come back in, say, fifty years, you might eventually become interesting.

Maybe Dr. Face could help you, but I doubt it.

So, just to be clear, what exactly did this post mean?

ubersuck my balls for fifty years

Thanks for weighing in Dr. Oz.

Seriously, possibly the singular thing that social media has most given to humanity is that phenomena in which a renowned expert in some field, with decades of experience or multiple published studies or having researched and written a dozen books says "It's X" and ten thousand internet randos who drive a truck or work as an accountant or builds furniture or milks cows or teaches middle school or mops up the mess at the middle school immediately responds "Definitely NOT X, you're wrong and let me tell you why..."

It's comical, and bizarre, and more than a little tragic.

This is a very good point, according to WebMD this is usually called the 404 Not Found syndrome.

Hence, my signature...

It's rare that some does all the work to reference how stupid they are... but saves us some effort. Thanks?

I have a BAD FEELING Trump's going to be re-elected

I DON'T trust the American electorate to do the right thing at the polls next Tuesday &/or via Absentee Ballots &/or however people will be voting, or have already voted.

It'll be 4 more years of Donald Dickhead

Interesting. My sense is just the opposite, that Trump is heading for an EPIC GTFO moment. Hopefully a lot of the Republican shitheads who've been enabling him, too.

God I hope so. Unless something fundamentally changes about the Republican party, I will never vote GOP. Doesn't matter what I think about a particular candidate, it is too toxic of a party to enable.

Well, to restate something I've said many, many times . . . I don't vote for parties. I vote for candidates, and I don't care what letter comes after their name. If the D looks like a better choice, I vote for the D. If the R looks better, I vote for the R. If the L looks better, I vote for the L. And so on.

Same here. And I sure hope we're right.

I am so disgusted with what the US has become under Donald Trump that I promised myself, shortly after he was elected with his racist rhetoric that is the complete opposite of what it says on the Statue of Liberty that as long as he was president I would never salute the American flag and would never sing the Star Spangled Banner. I have kept that promise. I am hoping so much that on January 20th, things will change. No, I do not expect a Biden presidency to be a Golden Age in which everyone lives happily ever after. But just going back to the normal ups and downs of previous administrations would be so much better than the last four years that it would cause me to hope, at least, that the USA might actually be worth something once again.

But I expect some real bad surprises from the Trump administration, the Republican Party, and the far-right Trump supporters between now and then...

Hard to say. Probably a surprise or two coming up. But generally I hope (!) the GOP's vote theft cannot undo Biden's lead. They are trying their hardest, though.

Against all oods I HOPE that election night will bring a decisive result. But since 2020 is such an asshole of a year, we'll quite likely see the dreaded Blue Shift scenario. Of course Trump will put that before SCOTUS and hope his nominations will act as party weasels instead of independent judges above petty politics.

It's funny, huh. Nobody needs a Golden Age any more and Biden doesn't promise it. US politics has sunk so low that Trump -> out is enough of a message of hope.

My prediction for the outcome of the election:

Half of Americans can't believe 2020 has gotten even worse.

Half of Americans say, at last, a bright spot in 2020.

I used to be the same way. But after the GOP nonsense of the last decade, anyone who hitches their wagon to their brand is poisoned to be. At least run as a libertarian and I will consider you.

That's because when your house is on fire, it's more important to put out the fire than it is to hang drapes and rearrange the furniture.

the actual voters will be fine, notwithstanding the Unreconstructed folks in red states who LIKE the idea of a right wing autocrat if it puts the uppity others in their place. Trump SHOULD get no more than 25% (25% will reliably take the wrong position on literally ANY question ever asked) and that he'll get into the 40's is a disgrace but you still can't win a normal election when you're down by double digits.

If you want to have a bad feeling had a bad feeling about how Republican judges have apparently decided to go all in on election stealing if it's close enough for their bullshit to change the outcome. It speaks to the cancer that conservatives have become that you can be leading by 9-10 points and STILL have to sweat whether "courts" will find a way to install the loser in what will essentially be a permanent autocracy.

It's like Tom Nichols (a die hard conservative former Republican) keeps saying, the only way to eradicate Trumpism is to burn the GOP to the ground - he says, correctly, that he will vote Democrat for every elective office no matter how minor until the cancer is purged.

He's exactly right.