The 2024 Presidential Primary Election thread

Biden eeks out an electoral college win while taking the popular vote handily.

However, his popularity stays in the mid 40s due to COVID remaining a drag on the economy and the R controlled Senate and SCOTUS not allowing anything meaningful to move forward and in fact some things move backwards.

Dem voters are demoralized after seeing all their work in 2018 and 2020 not really amounting to anything.

Biden decides not to run.

Republicans have been waging an internal war that boils down to Establishment (Reagan-Bush II alignment/platform), Trumpists and New Direction.

Dissatisfaction with both parties and the American system as a whole are at all time highs.

What do the 2024 fields look like?

Will Kamala Harris have it locked up or does dissatisfaction with the Biden admin leave a realistic opening for challengers?

Does Trump or a Trump family member run? Does a Trumpism w/out Trump candidate make a legit run? Does Joni Ernst’s win put her back as a leading Establishment contender? Does Nikki Haley step back in?

(And yes, I am totally making some assumptions here, not least of which the 2020 election is far from over, but there isn’t really much to say until the votes get counted and I’m a weird mixture of overwhelming anxiety and bored/burned out, so let’s distract ourselves by making wild ass predictions on little information.)

Oh, did I mention this one?

Hell no.

"ekes"

All that can be predicted for sure are two things:

- this was the last time two old white men ran and
- Trumpism is dead the second his loss becomes official. They are already leaving the sinking ship, fueled by Trump's despotic claims (as if they hadn't know before)

Trump specifically yeah, but the road for the next Trump to follow is mapped out. God help the US when they get the next authoritarian fuckwit who is able to keep up a veneer of respectability.

I really don't know about that.

I'm sure there we're plenty of "eeks" when Trumpistas got up this morning and realized that their whole world view was in the process of turning upside down.

If Trump loses 2020, he'll still be holding rallies and making headlines, because the media can't help themselves. I wouldn't rule out him running again in 2024. Trumpism is alive and well, regardless of the outcome this week.

AOC 2024

Nah. Give her until at least 2028 to get more experience working in the system, otherwise you could have another Obama situation.

I'm not sure what you mean.

As far as I can tell, Obama's issues had nothing to do with a lack of knowledge/experience working the system.

They were:
1. For all the rhetoric about hope and change, his vision of what America could and should be and what government's role in that was not dramatically different from most establishment politicians
2. He remained convinced through both terms that the best path was to try to build bridges with Republicans who had no interest in reciprocating.
3. He stirred up a ton of opposition because of, among other reasons, racism.

The first two aren't a potential problem for AOC, and the third isn't something that is going to change no matter how much experience she might get.

I'd bet against a 2024 run because it carries too much risk for him on a pride level.

When he first ran in the primaries it didn't really matter if he didn't win, because it increased his platform. Then in the election if he lost against Clinton he could spin it as a rigged system and go forward with the Trump News Channel plan.

Then he became POTUS and pretty much had to run for re-election because to not do so would make him look like a quitter. If he loses this election he'll kick and scream for the rest of his life about it, saying it was fraud and rigged but he won't try again because there's a real chance if he did he would get smashed in the primaries.

And that would hurt him the most, losing that denial, putting himself unnecessarily in a position to have the Republicans say "No, fuck off" would destroy the image he wants to create.

That isn't to say he won't flirt with the idea. He'll invite the speculation because having people praise and beg him is what his ego needs, but he'll ultimately stand back and say that he knows he would win if he tried again but being president wasn't that great anyway and he has better things to do.

That's the biggest one, except for AOC to do anything as president she would need the support of Democrats who absolutely don't support a more left vision of what they should do. Better for her to work on building up that base of like-minded types first.

There's a whole bunch of old white men in both parties that make your first proposition not a sure thing, if not in 2024 some time in the next decade or two.

Assuming Trump loses, Trump might run again for the Republican nomination. Or Pence might step up. Or a number of people who have thrown their hats in the ring in this or previous election cycles might try a comeback, like a Jeb or Mitt.

On the Democratic side, Biden might run for re-election (though it seems like that would not be wise on his part, given his age). If he does not, Bloomberg might try to make a comeback now that he has a better idea of what a presidential run might involve and more time to prepare for one. One would assume Bernie Sanders isn't going to make another attempt at the Democratic nomination no matter what happens, but who can count him out? Hey, third time might be the charm.

Even assuming that the candidates will include at least one woman/person of color in 2024, there are plenty of elections for two old white men to end up winning the primaries for.

As to the death of Trumpism, I definitely wouldn't count that chicken before it's hatched. Even assuming a loss, and on top of that assuming that he gets out of politics, there are plenty of people who are potentially willing to take up his mantle. They may not have his charisma or other talents, but then, they probably don't have his high negatives either.

She's already slaying it though.

There's a factor everyone is leaving out against a Trump 2024 run.

1. He goes to jail.
2. He dies of delayed covid damage.
3. Mix of both.

Bloomberg was never serious about running. His goal was merely to sandbag Warren and Sanders in the primaries, once that was accomplished, he walked away. Yeah, I know that he gave a bunch of money to the Democrats to help defeat Trump, but it wasn't near the $1 billion he pledged when he entered the race. Also, he's almost the same age as Biden, so I can't see him running again.

It's obviously a longshot tht he might run again, but there's no telling what a combination of money and ego might do.

I don't think his primary goal was to spoil the chances of a progressive from winning. Or at least if it was, he went about it in a pretty dumb way. Having yet another centrist in the mix seems like a poor way to block progressives, especially when he could have just thrown cash toward whoever was his centrist of f choice.

How dare you she is beautiful

By throwing cash at Biden, he’d have enabled Warren and Sanders to fully open up on Biden. They eviscerated Bloomberg on the debate stage, and they would have been able to do the same to Biden if his pockets were filled with Bloomberg’s cash.

Too soon. She'll only turn 35 in that year which is the first line of attack. Watch for her in 2028 or 32 (if that happens at all and 2020 was just a glitch instead of the start of a steep downward spiral for the planet)

And please stop it already with Bernie. The guy is 80 and he's the same kind of internet darling Ron Paul was. The GOP could have put up Homer Simpson against him, uttering just the one word, 'socialist!', and won.