A Recession on the Way?

You and people in general should realize that one's personal finances can vary from the overall performance of the economy. There are certainly individuals who have their personal finances suffer during boom times and people who have their personal finances boom during recessions or even depressions.

So even if it turns out that 41 percent of the polls respondents actually do have a worse financial situation six months from now, that doesn't change whether or not the statistics that are generally used to describe the U.S.'s economic health are positive, negative, or in-between.

But the rich will do better under a Trump administration, and they're the job creators and the main drivers of our glorious economy. We must vote Biden out of office to appease our benevolent overlords and get the economy back on track. Their track.

Not that I like Trump. No way! But you can't deny he's the greatest President ever who will one day return and smite all of his enemies.

New: Nasdaq 100 soars 54% in 2023 for best year since 1999
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-28/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

https://bsky.app/profile/bloomberg.com/post/3khplkfkikc24

But the price of a subway sandwich is still $5.50 and diarrhea.

You forgot the sewer and plumbing bill.

Remember what we had Before Biden?

I'll note that, because all the facts about how the economy is actually doing point in a direction he doesn't like, @Steal Your Face is now forced to resort to posting polls about how people feel like the economy is doing.

It's not unlike how, if you ask a bunch of people if crime is going up or down, most of them will say it's going up, even when it's not.

Which mostly just demonstrates that the Republican PR machine is extremely effective at convincing people to ignore the facts and believe what Republicans want them to believe.

US seeks to buy 3mb crude for the SPR for delivery in April
#oott

https://www.spr.doe.gov/purchase/docs/April 2024 Purchase/April 2024 Purchase Request for Proposal.pdf

https://x.com/staunovo/status/1742563176900669808

Just another (weekly) drop in the bucket right my VERY SERIOUS SPR Truthers?

You, sir, are a monster.

Uh oh. I wonder what happened in 2000.

No, Monster is a different kind of fizzy beverage.

Also, Face is right.
But, the Dew is better than Coke. Especially Baja Blast.

3mb? How the hell are we buying megabytes of crude?

Not megabytes, millibits. Capitalization is important!

Unemployment numbers are fucking great. Where is the fucking recession?

Just saw this pass my algorithm. I left it out of the quotes so everyone can just take moment to examine the charts. This is remarkable. It's worth noting exactly who will be happy about this news and who will not be happy or completely ignore it. Take notes!!

The US labor market just had one of its best years of the decade. 5 charts tell the story.
Story by Josh Schafer • 4h

The US labor market just finished a year that many thought would see a recession with one of the highest 12-month job totals seen in the last decade.

Including an unexpectedly strong December report, the US labor market added a total of nearly 2.7 million jobs in 2023.

Excluding outsized gains from the rebound from pandemic-era firings and re-hiring in 2021 and 2022, the most recent year was the most robust for job increases since 2015 and the third highest since 2000.


"The key reason why economic activity surpassed expectations in the US and actually, globally, is the fact that labor market resilience was a key feature of the economic landscape," EY chief economist Greg Daco told Yahoo Finance. "Businesses, business executives, were keenly focused on ensuring that they had the right talent to navigate this very unusual period of impact."

Entering the year, many economists believed the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes would slow the labor market as companies looked to cut expenses and protect profits as the cost of capital increased. But that didn't fully come to fruition.

"You look at these very rapid rate increases, and you're assuming that means there's going to be these kind of catastrophic impacts on the economy," Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons recently told Yahoo Finance.


"But in reality, both the household and the corporate sector are much more insulated from rate hikes than it appeared, and certainly than they have been in previous rate hiking cycles, based on just how they fund their activity."

This unusual reaction to rate hikes, combined with employers struggling to rehire workers after the pandemic, created an economic rarity. After the most aggressive federal interest rate hiking cycles in decades, the unemployment rate was nearly unchanged from where it sat when the Fed began hiking rates in March 2022.

The unemployment rate ended 2023 at 3.7%, just slightly above the March 2022 level of 3.6%. The average unemployment rate for the year, 3.6%, matches 2022's reading as the lowest since 1969.

The labor market also entered 2023 in an obscure predicament.

Sectors like leisure and hospitality, government, and healthcare were severely impacted during the pandemic and were still rebuilding throughout the year. That rebound, combined with more workers joining the workforce, contributed to the surprise in job gains.

With bonuses and other lavish incentives driving job gains, some wondered if the full pool of Americans would ever come back to work. They did, contributing to the quickest labor market recovery in history.

In fact, the portion of prime age workers in the labor market hit an annual average of 83.3% in 2023, the highest average in 21 years.

"The ongoing rebound in participation in the labor force, I mean, it's massive," Bank of America US chief economist Michael Gapen told Yahoo Finance recently when describing why the economy outperformed in 2023. "The numbers are massive."

Another narrative about the labor market also failed to materialize.

At the beginning of 2023, the thinking went that a labor market slowing would force the economy into recession, as less employment would result in less disposable income for consumers powering economic growth. But that, too, didn't play out in a year that was defined by resilient consumer spending.

And part of that spending was driven by resilient wage growth.

Average hourly earnings growth in 2023 ended at 4.3%, the third-highest total since 2008.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

Aww... Where's my charts? Oh well, they're at the link

Democrats really need to stop gaslighting us with facts, charts, statistics, etc.

It's now two years since FF claimed a recession was on the way for the US, and 18 months since he claimed the US was in a recession. I am curious if the claimed recession has been in effect the whole time since then.

You could ask him. But where is he?

He's at home, WASHING HIS RED MAGA CAP!

It’s all fake news!! Dontcha see? Dontcha SEE?

False. I didn't claim a recession was on the way, I pointed to news pieces (not an article because I know the difference between a news piece and a news article even though in the past I might have confused the two in my head.) and Youtubers who were talking about a pending recession. Anyone who reads this thread title should be able to understand that a question had been asked because the thread title ends in a question mark. I wasn't aware that you and others here don't understand basic English.

Correct, I was under the assumption that we were going with the common definition that we've understood for the past forty + years. I should have anticipated that you would act in your usual weaselly way and ignore reality and use a different definition all together.

I guess that depends on who you ask. I've pointed out several things throughout this thread that indicates to me that the economy isn't as good as the Biden administration is saying, but they get ignored every time.

Which quarters did we have negative GDP growth?

No, you didn’t. But you wouldn’t know because didn’t bother to read them before posting.

Also they are opinion pieces, not news pieces. Opinion pieces, news articles.

Welcome back btw.

Now, about that jobs report.

It's all smoke and mirrors.
Dec jobs report : there's SO much bad news under the hood of this report, including the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions, and a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5% - here's the truth you should know...




E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
8h

First, the headlines: nonfarm payrolls rose 216k on the backs of big downward revisions to previous months and unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% - let's delve into why that rate is so low (hint: 676k people left the labor force in Dec)...



E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
8h

LFPR fell hard in Dec, closing the year well below pre-pandemic levels - this is artificially lowering the unemployment rate...

E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
8h

Both measurements of employment from the household and establishment surveys show jobs way below trend, bearing witness to the number of missing workers...

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni

Continued...
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
8h

And same thing w/ those not in labor force and the employment-to-population ratio...









E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
Jan 5

Depending on your preferred method of estimation, we don't have 6.3 million unemployed w/ an unemployment rate of 3.7%, but btwn 11.1 million and 13.1 million unemployed w/ an unemployment rate btwn 6.4% and 7.5%...










E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
Jan 5

Back to nonfarm payrolls - repeated downward revisions of previous months in '23 made initial job gains look larger than they were; Dec's 216k rise less the 71k revisions to Nov and Oct yields a 145k rise, missing expectations; ~25% of job gains last year were revised away...

There's a lot more at the link, but it's worth noting that part time jobs are going up while full time jobs are going down. People are having to get 2nd or 3rd jobs.
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/st...8?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Nowhere in that second part that you quoted did I say news article, learn to read. 2022 we had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You know this because I pointed it out in this very thread.

Look bucko I never said you misused it in the second part. I just didn’t feel like quoting the top part for one line so added it to the bottom. Notice the paragraph break denoting it was a separate line of thought.

I’m look at the Fed’s data and not seeing it. I see a dip in 2020 but nothing in 2022.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NC000334Q

I notice you still refuse to read your own article.