2007 Wordforge NFL Playoff Betting Contest

Okay so here's how it works. Everybody picks every game agianst the betting line everyweek. To the Winner goes some rep and whatever else we feel like giving. I will post the betting line here each Wednesday. Posts with picks must be made no later than kickoff of the first game of that week. The Super Bowl and both conference championship games will also include picks of total points to break any potential ties. Cumulative totals of those three games will determine the winner in the case of a tie.

The Wild Card Round(Home team in CAPS)

AFC
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS(-9)
Kansas City Chiefs at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-7)

NFC
Dallas Cowboys at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(-3)
New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES(-7)

Not shockingly, all the home teams are favored. I'll post my picks by the end of the week. At first glance, though, that Jets-Pats line is awfully high to me...

I will take the jets and the giants.

Actually I think I'm ready now. Here's my picks with thoughts on each game. My pick is the one I bold.

AFC

Jets at Patriots(-9)

The more I think about this game the more and more I like the Pats. Consider this: The Jets only beat one team with a record above .500 all year. Yes, that was against the Patriots, but since then I think the Pats have taken steps to mitigate what helped the Jets a ton, namely the terrible field. The new field will help the Patriots defense keep up with Jet receivers in that short passing game. I think this one finishes somewhere around 23-10 or in that range.

Chiefs(+7) at Colts

Give me the money line on this game. Not only will I gladly take the points, but I'm pretty darn sure the Chiefs will win on the field. The Colts can't even stop god damn Ron Dayne. Larry Johnson is going to go crazy. I expect him to get the ball 25-30 times in this game. As soon as Manning has his first set back the aura of "Here we go again" will set in over the Colts. I see this one at about 30-24 Chiefs. One road time always wins and none of the games screams upset as much as this one.

NFC

Giants(+7) at Eagles

I don't think the Giants will win, but I think they will cover. Both games these two teams have played this year have been really close and the only way this is a blowout is if the Giants get down more than 10 in the first quarter and the team quits. Expect to see a lot of Barber and Westbrook. As goos as Garcia has been, the biggest change in the Eagles this year has been the re-commitment to the running game after McNabb got hurt. The Giants need Jeremy Shockey to play and though he is an asshole, he has a reputation for playing hurt, so I think he'll be on the field Sunday. I think this is a 21-17 type game with the Eagles winning.

Cowboys at Seahawks(-3)

This is the other game that can really go either way. The reason I like the Hawks is because the last game they played against a good team, against the Chargers, they really took it to San Diego and I think that shows now that this team has a healthy Alexander and Hasselback they are a force. The Cowboys are on the way down. Romo has come back down to earth and is looking human. Their running game has been horrid the last few weeks and the Lions offense tore their defense apart. 28-10, Seahawks.

Ooh, going against the spread makes it more interesting...!

AFC
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS(-9)
Pats to win, but not cover

Kansas City Chiefs at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-7)
Chiefs to win straight up

NFC
Dallas Cowboys at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(-3)
Cowboys to cover, possibly win straight up

New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES(-7)
Iggles to win and cover

What, they are the only two games I care, and know, about...

Then flip a coin for the other two or don't play.

Fine...

I'll take the Jets, Giants, Colts, And Seattle.

Assuming the lines are still the same,

NE -9 This is meant to look too big. Watch the Pats win by a couple of touchdowns.

Colts -7 This one would worry me a bit - I'd probably play the over. I don't think the Colts' run defence is as amateur as they looked in a couple of games, and I fancy them to score a lot as well. Could well push I suppose

Giants +7 Think they win this outright. That's if the real NY show up, and Jeff Garcia plays like the average QB he is. I can't see all four home teams winning anyway.

Seattle -3 Probably going to be a close game. I went for Dallas at first, then decided that we're more likely to see the Tony Romo of the last 3 weeks than the previous 3 months.

My pics are bolded and italicized.

AFC
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS(-9)
Kansas City Chiefs at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-7)

NFC
Dallas Cowboys at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(-3)
New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES(-7)

My pics are bolded and italicized.

Not exactly: I took the Chiefs over the Colts, unless you meant just the two you're interested in.

ya, I didn't even look at the others that close.

AFC
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS(-9)
Kansas City Chiefs at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-7)

NFC
Dallas Cowboys at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS(-3)
New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES(-7)

My picks are bolded

Question--are we just picking who we think will win, straight up? Or are we picking against the spread? I assume against the spread, since you've got the lines listed, but I want to make sure.

Against the spread:

Jets - they've been underappreciated all year. I don't think they will win, but they are gutty, well coached, and are a consumate team. They should stay with a New England team that is talented but has some flaws.

Chiefs - they may win outright, with a strong ground game and much stouter defense than in the Vermeil years, especially against the pass. I'd love to see the Colts win it all, especially after the tragedy last year, but I just don't think they have the horses.

Dallas - I think the Seahawks have more talent, but when it comes down to it I think Parcells will have them well motivated after inexplicably losing to a pathetic Lions team at home. Plus the Seahawks best cover corner is injured.

New York - only with the points. Interdivision rival games are always close. I'd put Philly to win, but I expect it to be tight.

Well, this is tough.
The hardest part is picking a winner from Dallas and Seattle.
Here are my picks.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Against the spread. And even if it changes at this point it'll only be a half a point here or there. I used the average of the seven places listed on yahoo.com to come up with what I posted.

Four underdogs. Ballsy. Then again underdogs had the year of years against the spread this year so that might actually come to pass. Favorites only covered 35% of the time in the regular season this year.

Only a few hours left to the kick off of Wildcard weekend!

So, the colts and seattle won, now time for the jets and giants to do their part...

Amazing how many times you lose by a point or two betting against the spread on games with lines of three points or less...

Yah that missed 2 point conversation cost me a push in the Seattle game. Here are the standings after the first two games :


darkstryke 2-0
Theodore 1-1
Demiurge 1-1
Fox Mulder 1-1
Nautica 1-1
Ramen 0-2
Colbalt 0-2
ehrie 0-2

Only dark got em both right on Saturday. Ramen, Colbalt and I managed to get em both wrong. Go us!

Well the Giants and Jets both flamed outta the playoffs, but the Giants covered. Here's the standings after the Wild Card Rounds. Lines for the next week will be posted on Wednesday.

Fox Mulder 3-1
darkstryke 2-2
Theodore 2-2
Demiurge 2-2
Nautica 2-2
ehrie 2-2
Ramen 1-3
Colbalt 1-3

Everybody is clearly still alive as nobody managed to get all four games right. Props to Fox Mulder who managed to get 3 of 4 correct. Most of us went 2-2. I whiffed on both Saturday games and got both Sunday games correct. Go me.

Okay here are our betting lines for the division round. Home team in CAPS.

The Divisional Round

AFC
Indianapolis Colts vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS(-4)
New England Patriots vs. SAN DIEDO CHARGERS(-4.5)

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS(-5)
Seattle Seahawks vs CHICAGO BEARS(-9)

All the Home teams favored again, as usual. All the home teams won last week after they all lost last year. The NFL always comes back to the middle. There's going to be a lot more agony this week as a couple of those games really can go either way. Same rules as last week.

Well I went 2-2 last week. One of them I deserved. I was so pumped up on the Chiefs that I forgot Herm Edwards was involved in the game. Being a New York Giants fan I should have remembered what a playoff cancer Edwards is. I can't believe how horrible the Chiefs gameplan was against the Colts. They ran the ball in the only way the Colts could stop it and shockingly the Colts did. Did anybody in Kansas City watch the Texans game? The other game was a crapshoot. It's the nature of the NFC this year that anything can happen as all the playoff teams have huge gaping flaws that can detonate in any game. That being said here are my picks for the Divisional Round. My picks are bolded.

AFC
Indianapolis Colts vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS(-4)

My god the level of Colts hysteria after last week is crazy. Everybody went from thinking the Colts had a terrible defense(true) to thinking it was magically fixed over the course of one game(horseshit). The Ravens may be a bunch of thugs, but their coaching staff is one of the most underrated in the game. This team looks a hell of a lot like the team that blasted my Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. The Ravens running game isn't amazing, but it won't need to be as their defense is the exact type of smashmouth physical defense that gives the Colts timing offense fits. Peyton Manning could come out and have an all-world game, but I don't see that happening. He threw three interceptions last week against a pretty average defense. I'd gladly lay a touchdown in this game. Ravens 27 Colts 13.

New England Patriots(+4.5) vs. SAN DIEDO CHARGERS

Rule number one in the 21st century is never bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck. Unlike last week I realize Marty is holding the headset on the Chargers sideline and he's gone into the playoffs with teams as loaded as this years Chargers before and found a way to lose, even at home. This Chargers teams is easily the most talented in the NFL, but with a rookie QB against the Pats defense combined with Marty is just too much for me to like the Chargers in this game. The Bolts may very well pull this out on a last second field goal or something as it should be a close game, but my head says otherwise. When the playoffs started I thought the Chargers would win with all, but now I've changed my mind. Pats 17 Chargers 14.

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles(+5) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

This goes back to the fact that no NFC team should be giving another more than 3 points. This is my pick I'm the shakiest about. I'm pretty sure the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl and if it isn't close I think the Saints would probably be the team that wins in a rout. This will be a very high scoring game as both defenses can be ran against and that always leads to points in the playoffs. I really wouldn't be surprised if either team won this. Saints 37 Eagles 34.

Seattle Seahawks(+9) vs CHICAGO BEARS

Again just too many points. That and I think the Seahawks could really win on the field, or rather the Bears could lose. You really don't know which Rex Grossman is going to show up. If the 100 QB rating one shows up the Bears win by a few touchdowns. That one hasn't shown up recently though. Even against bad defenses Grossman has looked very very bad latly. The Seahawks are probably the most banged up team in the playoffs right now, but they do have their best two players on offense and should be able to put some points on the board. I'm pretty sure this will be a low scoring sloppy game, pretty much the epitome of the NFC this year. Bears 16 Seahawks 13.

3 dogs and a favorite.

My picks are bolded

AFC
Indianapolis Colts vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS
New England Patriots vs. SAN DIEDO CHARGERS

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Seattle Seahawks vs CHICAGO BEARS

The Divisional Round

AFC
Indianapolis Colts vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS(-4)
I am torn for my newfound love of the Colts bandwagon, and the reality of the Ravens Defense. Not sure who will win outright, but I figure it'll be close enough to be within the spread.

New England Patriots vs. SAN DIEDO CHARGERS(-4.5)
The Chargers have a rookie QB?!? When did they replace Phillip Rivers? Oh, wait, you're just totally discounting the first 2 years when he learned the offense while carrying a clipboard? Yeah, nobody's ever done that before, 'cept every team in the NFL! Sometimes the old ways are still valid. Besides, w/ LT, Antonio Gates, and a tough defense, the QB just needs to be adequate. Rivers is far more than just adequate. Besides, NE wins a couple of games and the whole East Coast goes apeshit. Sorry--they're overrated. SD 34 NE 21

NFC
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS(-5)
Tough call. I look for the Saints to win, but not cover. Or they could blow out the Iggles. Tough call, but I'll assume that Philly's momentum combined w/ a slow start by New Orleans due to the bye week makes for a closer game. NO 31 PHI 27.

Seattle Seahawks vs CHICAGO BEARS(-9)
Tough call again, simply due to such a big spread. But I'll take the Bears to cover on the power of a defensive TD and an extra FG. CHI 27, SEA 17.

^ I really can't begrudge any pick this week. All the games are crapshoots. It's one of the reasons the NFL is so popular. As for Rivers, yes technically he's a third year player, but as this is first year actually playing he is considered a rookie to me and most of the world. First year starters not named Tom Brady and Big Ben don't usually fare well in the playoffs. If San Diego wins it will be because the Pats couldn't stop Tomlinson, which is entirely possible. I expect Marty to play it close to the vest and not give Rivers the chance to lose the game. Don't get me wrong, the Chargers are absolutly loaded on both sides of the ball, but B&B have beaten such teams before.

Colts +4

Patriots +4.5

I understand why these lines are as they are, I really do.

However, I don't see Baltimore scoring more than about 14 points, taking into account that McNair has had just a steady season beating up poor teams, the Colts secondary is decent, and their run defence, while not as brilliant as it appeared to be against KC, is not as abysmal as it was in the second half of the season, and should be adequate against the Ravens. Peyton's three inteceptions last week were a little harsh on him last week, as one, if not both were Marvin Harrison's(?) fault. I've had a feeling all season that with the pressure off a little from last season, this could be the year the Colts get to the Superbowl.

As for NEvSD, this could be close, and 4.5 points is a nice number to back against, and a couple too big for this game IMO. Having said that, considering the season the Chargers have had, a loss for them would still make this potentially the upset of the playoffs. On this game I'm going only by the (flawed) logic that SD could be this year's version of last year's Colts, and that discounting NE is usually a bad idea - they're definitely not "finished".

Feel really strongly that at least one of the away teams in the AFC will win outright, and the odds on both doing so are probably ridiculously good.

Saints -5

Bears -9

Continuing my insistence the Eagles and Jeff Garcia are overrated, and in this game overmatched. Too many individuals for Philly to contain here - I fancy a high scoring win, possibly by double figures. I don't see a letdown here after a great season for NO. The points over looks good too.

Bears v Seahawks is an unpredictable game IMO. If both teams play as well as they can, then Chicago should win, fairly comfortably. If Bad Chicago plays, then Seattle could easily win playing rubbish as well. Maybe the line is a few too many, but the Seahawks have very rarely looked like last year's team.

^ The Pats/SD line is the classic Vegas "We have no idea what is going to happen in this game." If the game was in New England I'm positive the Pats would be laying 4.5. The Colts game is the one I am the most confident with this week. The Ravens defense is in my opinion exactly the kind that gives Payton Manning happy feet. We know what happens to the Colt when the Lord of the Dance is taking snaps in the playoffs.