2007 Wordforge NFL Playoff Betting Contest

colts, chargers, saints, bears.

Colts +4. I'm not sure who is going to win here, so I'll take the points. My heart is rooting for the Colts, just because I think they are due. But the Ravens are a special team. The only reason I'm taking the points is I think the Ravens offense is a little too inconsistent - the 2000 Super Bowl version was just a shade worse in the passing game (Trent Difler's rating was 76.5, Steve McNair's is 82.5), but much stronger at running the ball behind an in his prime Jamal Lewis averaging almost a yard more a carry than the 2006 version, backed up by Priest Holmes. The Colts will face a VERY hostile crowd, but sometimes that galvanizes a team. Could go either way, so I'm taking the points.

Chargers -4.5. The last time these two teams met it was SD 41, NE 14. What has changed since then? Not enough. Blowing out an average Jets team is one thing. Facing the elite of the league is another. Oh, and Ehrie, it isn't SD's rookie QB. It's SD's PRO BOWL QB. I don't see anyone taking down the Chargers this year.

Saints +5. Philly's good, but they lost a quality db, and that's one thing you don't want to be down when facing Drew Brees and company. Call it Saints 34, Philly 24.

Seahawks +9. Easiest pick to take. The Bears are completely suspect at QB, and their defense is a shadow of it was in the early to mid part of the season before they lost a great DT, LB and S.

I would expect to see some close, low scoring games this week.
I'll take:

Indianapolis Colts
San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks

I can't see the Bears, giving 9 points, to anybody.

Well. All Four Dogs came in. Here's the results from this week:

Cobalt 3-1
Demiurge 3-1
Theodore 1-3
Fox Mulder 2-2
Nautica 2-2
darkstryke 3-1
ehrie 3-1
Ramen No pics

Here's the Complete standings. Still anybody's game

Fox Mulder 5-3
darkstryke 5-3
Demiurge 5-3
ehrie 5-3
Nautica 4-4
Cobalt 4-4
Theodore 3-5
Ramen 1-3

The Championship games will be up by Wednesday. Remember. This round you pick the game and total points. Either as a predicted score or just one number. This will be used to break ties.

Hope you all took up the personal advice on the AFC underdog moneyline double


Also can't believe Saints didn't cover. Damn fumble almost certainly cost that in a game they dominated and should have won much more easliy.

There have been a lot of close game so far though, so I'll take a winning record.

Looks like the Saints are going to be underdogs. Unbelievable - they must be thinking playing at home gives Chicago a 10 point advantage...

Vegas usually defaults the Home team in the playoffs as a 3 point advantage. I think both games are pretty much pick ems so that's why the debut lines are all around 3 points. They'll shift some in the next few days.

The Saints/Bears game line is tanking! It's only Monday evening and it's already down a point to Bears laying 2. There's a few with it at a point and one even has it already as a pick 'em game. Sure looks like all the money is flooding towards the Saints. Makes me want to pick the Bears.

Okay here we go for the Championship round. Remember, in addition to picking the game you must also pick the total points for the game. You can represent this as a score or just a single number for points.

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-3)

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans Saints vs. CHICAGO BEARS(-2.5)

Good luck to everybody this week.

If anyone cares, the over/under lines are 43 (NFC) and 47.5 (AFC) (which look respectively too low and too high IMO).

I'm nowhere near picking the spreads. Might go for both home teams to feel safe, but that's as far as I can get at the moment. Really tough games to choose.

Both of them games are essentially pickems. Tip of the hat to whoever manages to get both of these right. I imagine we are going to see a lot of 1-1 performances this week.

So last week I went 3-1. Colts bit me in the ass again. It's odd that I'm 5-3, yet the game each week I was most confident about I lost by a lot. This week features two games that can go either way. In each game you have two of my 5 playoff betting rules at odds. The details of which I'll get into later, but it really says how 'even' the NFL is nowadays. 10 years ago it would have been unthinkable that we could go through a playoffs like the NFC has where each game has been decided by 3 points or less. Watching the quality of the four games last week it became even more stark the quality difference in the AFC versus the NFC. The paradigm that ruled over the NFL for almost 15 years from the early 80s until the late 90s has completly reversed itself. Not only that the personas of the conferences has flipped. Now all the smashmouth physical defenses are in the AFC and the finess offenses are mostly in the NFC. Come this time next week I would be shocked if the AFC isn't giving atleast a touchdown in the Super Bowl. A Pats-Bears Super Bowl would probably be in the 10 to 11 point range.

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-3)

Rarely in my life do I ever violate a Rule #1. Betting against Brady/Belicheck probably is a really stupid thing to do. Rule #5; however, states to beware the Team of DestinyTM. ToD teams are ones that for whatever reason mend all wounds in the playoffs(Indy Defense), win playoff games when their playmakers don't show up(Anybody seen Peyton Manning?), and most importantly have momentum out the wazoo coming into the title game. The Colts shut down Larry Johnson and won a game against the Ravens where they didn't score a touchdown. Only in the NFL universe is that possible. The Colts will get a 3rd crack at the Pats and most importantly this time they will be home. This feels a lot like the Cowboys-Niners games in the 90s where Steve Young just could not get by the Cowboys until they finally managed to get a team that was slightly less than what they played in previous two years at home. That's going to be the key in this game. I don't expect Manning to play gangbusters in this game and I certainly don't expect this to be a blowout. Hell the Pats got their asses kicked by the Chargers last week and still managed to win. That's the Patriots for you. Tom Brady has reached a status where he could be choking a small child on the side line and 2 drop dead hot girls would line up to bang him at the same time. This job will be out of even his reach. I think this is the set-up Manning has been waiting for for the last 6 years. If he doesn't win this game he can jsut go ahead and reserve that seat at the Fouts-Marino table of great passers who could never get their teams to the promise land. Local sports talk radio is going on and on about how awful it would be if Vaneteri kicked a game winning field goal. Bollocks, Brady can console himself with three Super Bowl rings. Eventually some luck has to go against the Patriots. For all intends and purposes this is the Super Bowl. Whatever we get in two weeks could be a good game, but that's only if the AFC team keeps the NFC team in the game. This has the potential to be a really really good back and forth game and in the end, Peyton Manning is finally going to get to the Super Bowl. I've also picked the Colts game wrong both weeks so what the hell do I know.

Colts 27 Patriots 23

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans Saints(+2.5) vs. CHICAGO BEARS

My god does the NFC suck. All 4 games so far have been won by the home team, yet none of them have covered. I really can't see the Bears staying in this game for much beyond the first half. The Saints were the only team in the NFC coming into the playoffs that had a totally complete offense. Yes their defense stinks, but the Bears defense is not the defense of the middle of the regular season. Problems with bodyguards dying and injuries have really made the Bears unit into a merely good defense. Rex Grossman is an abomination. We're looking at Kerry Collins level bad of Rex manages to get to the Super Bowl, but events like that only happen once in a lifetime. It would be fun to watch him tie the Super Bowl record for interceptions though. The Saints are also much more healthy than the Bears where it counts for the Saints. Weather could be an equalier in this game, but with the Saints having two running backs better than anything on the Bears side of the ball it probably won't be the issue it could be. This line got down to almost a pick 'em before in the last day and a half a ton of Bear money has come in. Perfect time to pounce on a Saints pick. By the middle of the third quarter I expect this game to be over. The Saints will get the honor of being blown out in the Super Bowl in two weeks. Congrats! We're also going to have to endure wall to wall stomach turning Katrina coverage from ESPN and CBS. Ugh. Why can't the Bears have a competent QB?

Saints 30 Bears 10

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-3)

Colts 35 Pats 21

NFC Championship Game

New Orleans Saints vs. CHICAGO BEARS(-2.5)

Bears 19 Saints 14

AFC Championship Game
New England Patriots vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS(-3)
While I think he's a darned good QB, I also do not think Brady is the Supreme Being QB that most East-Coast-biased media types and fans do. And he doesn't play Defense or Special Teams. And those that do for the Pats are less than their counterparts from years past. Colts are due, Colts are hungry for it.
Indy 23, NE 17

NFC Championship Game
New Orleans Saints vs. CHICAGO BEARS(-2.5)
Saints have a better QB, better running game, and at least are equivilent at WR. Their O-line has held up well so far. And they'll be able to put enough pressure on Rex Grossman that he'll only have a mediocre game. Bears D is overhyped in their current state.
Saints 30, Bears 21

NE +3 Indy 23, NE 20

Vanderjagt gets Indy over their playoff hump against NE, though they've beaten the Pats the last two regular season games at Foxboro.

Hard to go against the Pats at 12-1 in the playoffs with Brady and Belicheck. Especially being 6-2 all time against the Colts. However, their are two streaks there. NE won the first six, but the Colts have won the last two, and I'm thinking they extend.

Saints +2.5 Saints 20, Bears 17

If it was in the dome I'd put up more points, but the weather will affect the passing game in a big way, giving both teams incentive to pound it out, shortening the game and lowering the score.

The Saints actually are a better road team than home team, and the outdoor chilly Chicago weather helps them as much as it hurts them - their big weakness is their secondary and the winds and cold weather helps them there.

If Chicago was healthy they'd do it, but I think it's another year for Lovie's Bears. If they can get through a season without two of the best three defensive players hurt, they should be favored to win the NFC next year.

Well, almost everybody seems to be backing the Saints, which worries me, but i'll join them. The obvious key to Chicago winning would be Grossman having a very good game, which I just can't see

Saints + 2.5

NO 28 - 21 CHI


AFC game might be the hardest game to predict ever. Again, there's been a lot of support for Indy, which also worries me. The line must have moved a point or two. I like Indy to win, but only by a point or two, and no more than three, so it's

Pats + 3

IND 24 - 23 NE

I can't decide who I wan't to win either really.

I like the Saints to win outright, and the Colts to win and cover.

Saints 20-17
Colts 27-17

Umm...I'm going to assume you mean Vinateri, since Vanderjagt isn't kicking for anyone anymore.

I thought I was going to wet my pants the last two minutes of the Pats/Colts.

Peyton Manning finally going to the Superbowl.

Tony Dungy finally going to the SB, ironically, playing against his best friend, Lovie Smith.

Chicago VS Indianapolis. Too bad they have to play it in Miami.

Bah. Should have stuck with my original safe thought of backing both home teams.