2016 Presidential Election Thread

So if I understand correctly, the rule has an effect in the situation it was originally intended for -- keeping a non-winning candidate from getting publicity by having his/her name placed in nomination and having votes verbally cast for them on national TV -- but in a situation where nobody has a majority going in, it doesn't really affect anything?

Oh wow.....

After some more reading yeah this rule could even prevent anyone other then Trump being on the first ballot.

This explains why Cruz worked hard for Guam and Rubio for Puerto Rico since both are considered "states" under this rule.

They are going to change the rule. But it's going to be a major shitstorm. Serves the bastards right......

OK, so are there rules about how people vote in the first round?

Let's say they don't change the rules and Trump is the only name on the first ballot. What do the delegates pledged to Cruz do? Are they allowed to cast a "none of the above" vote to force a second ballot? Obviously they can't be forced to cast a vote, but what happens if they refuse to? Does nomination require a majority of all delegates, in which case they could deny Trump a majority by not voting at all, or does it only require a majority of delegates who vote?

First round is that the delegates vote for who they are pledged too. After that if no one has the nomination the delegates are free to vote for anyone.

Under this rule that was changed by Romney and his people you need eight states to qualify on any ballot so in essence any vote for Cruz (assuming he doesn't have 8 states) means that the votes for him on the first ballot don't even bother to get counted nor could Cruz be on any future ballot. (or Kaisch or Rubio or anyone else)

So it's a real cock-up because they never took into account of what happens if someone like Trump comes along, who has eight or more states but still not enough delegates AND everyone behind him doesn't have eight states meaning they didn't qualify to be on the ballot in the first place.

They are going to be forced to change the rule unless Cruz pulls out one more win. He already has seven.

In that case it comes down to just Cruz and Trump and the hopes of the GOP and a brokered convention come to a screeching halt.

If a state primary ballot challenge dragged on late and Cruz was ruled ineligible after the primary vote but before the convention, what happens to his delegates? Are they reapportioned as if he'd never been on the ballot, as if the people who voted for him never showed up at the polls and the delegates are apportioned to the other candidates by percentage (or winner take all, etc)?

This may come up because there are still challenges being filed, and a couple have been granted standing.

So, this is even more weird ... apparently when Rubio dropped out, some of his delegates were immediately released, some are still bound to him for the first ballot, some are bound through the second ballot, some can be released at any time but only if he says so, and some were redistributed to other candidates, proportionately based on nationwide standing at the moment he dropped out.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432985/marco-rubios-delegates-where-they-go-guide

(I'm assuming that in Alaska's case, his five delegates simply lose their place at the convention and Trump and Cruz get to send three and two more of their own people, respectively, rather than three of Rubio's delegates being ordered to vote for Trump and two ordered to vote for Cruz.)

Ted Cruz will not be found ineligible.

He will once he gets to a judge from a halfway decent law school. The Pennsylvania case was decided by a 70-year old judge who graduated from Dequesne University school of law. Cruz's people presented a very poorly researched article that somehow got published in Harvard Law Review, and without digging into any details other than who might have standing, the judge ruled for Cruz, probably thinking that the person bringing the suit was some birther yahoo who spent most of his time mapping chemtrails.

Gotta love gturner's optimism that a judge as deranged as he is can be found.

Cruz will probably win Utah

Utah would vote for a Democrat for president over Trump, according to poll
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865650513/?user=app

If this poll is accurate the Republicans are in trouble if Trump is nominated. Utah is as red as they come.

I've heard enough stories from your side of the pond not to bet on that one.

In some ways, this is not too surprising. Utah voters tend to be very conservative in the cautious about change version of the word. But the strong communitarian impulse among Mormons probably makes a lot of Sanders' platform appealing. Trump, on the other hand, is fairly appalling when viewed through that same lens.

I've been saying that for awhile now but it seems the die hards are utterly convinced that Trump will somehow magically transform everyone's opinion of him in the next 6 months.

Descendants of people who joined an upstart polygamist cult and moved West prefer socialism over someone who talks smack about a Mormon. Film at 11.

That's not surprising. Mormons are conservative and religious, but they are also very polite and peaceful. Trump is a boorish ogre who hurls insults at people who disagree with him. And Mitt Romney coming out against Trump probably has something to do with it as well. Many Mormons have also done missionary work south of the border, so they probably have more of an affinity for immigrant communities. This negativity towards Latino people probably hurts the Mormon cause of trying to convert as many people as possible over to the religion.

Official Mormon attitude: Communism is evil! Now, support the United Order.

I'm not joking.

This.

Yeah, well, the whole Mormon idea that people are dark skinned because their ancestors "turned their back on Jesus" doesn't exactly help, either. I know they tend to downplay that these days, but even the sanitized version of The Book of Mormon is pretty goddamned racist when it comes to people of color. "Whitesome and delightsome." for example.

Aren't Native Americans supposed to be the 13th tribe of Israel or something like that?

I thought Mormonism was the fastest growing religion in the world? Which means a lot of that expansion would be in areas populated by people of color.

Eh, my understanding is that there's two "theories" in Mormon circles about that. One is that after a couple of tribes of Israelis were brought to the Americas by Gawd in submarines (I shit you not.), and they turned their backs on Jebus, Gawd genetically altered them as punishment to be the people we know as Native Americans. The other is that the descendants of the Israelis all wiped one another out and the Native Americans are a completely unrelated people who came along later.

The LDS claims that they're they fastest growing religion in the world, but there's speculation that the numbers are grossly inflated or at least distorted. Recent decisions by the Mormon Church in terms of things like gay rights, equality, etc., have also caused a number of people to formally leave the church, which is said to be erasing the gains in the missionary endeavors.

If Galactica is right, is the 13th Tribe of a 13th Tribe super-awesome, like the Seventh Son of a Seventh Son? Maybe that's Apache Chief's origin story!

So if I'm a Kasich delegate and I'm legally obligated to vote for him on the first ballot, but he isn't eligible to be on the first ballot, what do I do?

Why not just kill them?

Well, if you're a Kasich delegate, you're a Republican, so there's a pretty good chance you don't give a shit about your legal obligations.

Buy a coffee and wait to see who offers you the biggest bribe? I kid you not outright bribery of delegates is both legal and common but rarely looked at unless there is a contested convention. There is a long history of it going back to the 19th century.

I'm not counting on anything with Trump anymore.

You do nothing.

You're just there. Then you get released.

But in reality that will probably never happen.

One of two things will happen:

#1 Trump will get 1237 delegates rendering all the brokered convention stuff irrelevant

or if Trump doesn't have 1237 going into the convention......

#2 They will change the rules in order to load up the ballot in an all out effort to derail Trump.

Either way we are going to have some fireworks at the convention.

Throw in the violent leftists throwing riots outside the convention along with Trump fans possibly throwing a riot if he doesn't get the nomination it's going to be one hell of a convention. I'm really glad I don't work in the jails in Cleveland....

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-breitbart-rise-fall-20160318-story.html