Damn that part of Florida is some seriously banana republic level FUBAR. And not a fucking thing will be done about it either. The next election it will be Groundhog Day rinse & repeat.
It was just reported today that Snipes (Broward County) misplaced 2,040 ballots but according to her they are in the building somewhere.
And not a fucking thing will be done about it either. Yep - Ground Hog day will be here before you know it. But hey, it's all just a Republican conspiracy anyway...it's not her fault! Well we have our own voting issues in Georgia - but our problems might be fixed. Now that Stacy Abrams has lost she will have plenty of free time to file those lawsuits and voter discrimination. Granted if she would have won she would (most likely) not say a fucking word about the voting system. Funny how that works!
Jesus send the fucking UN to Broward County to throw a tent over that circus - the US is obviously powerless to control that retard ranch. So how badly does Snipes need to fuck up to get fired? If she starts folding ballots into paper airplanes and origami then lighting them on fire will they then begin to even entertain the thought of 86ing her ass?
not with Desantis in charge.. One of the most interesting stories for 2020 will be how those 1.5 million new voters affect the balance of power in Florida. Good chance the purple days are over (although fools like Gaetz will still find their way to Congress in the northern right wing districts. Longer term, if what is being predicted about sea-level rise is legit, it will be interesting to see where all those South Florida voters go when their place ends up permanently underwater.
Easy! Trump will make them all buy rakes (what, you thought the Fedgov would pay for it?) and head to Cali as a cheap labor force to solve their forest fire issues! Any leftovers will take the jobs the immigrants come for, solving that problem too! The Cajuns will probably just stay put, as they'll finally be able to justify their webbed feet.
Most of Florida is at or below sea level. Fake News Climate Change® will take care of it. America's flaccid penis will float out to sea and never be heard from again.
Florida Election Officials in 2001: "Well, that was humiliating. We need to take steps to ensure that if the eyes of the nation are on us during a critical election, that we present utter competence and professionalism, so that there can be no doubt about the integrity of our state's electoral process." Florida Election Officials in 2018: "Ah, shit."
Florida governors and cabinet members and legislative leaders who benefitted from the incompetent appointed by JEB! Bush are
Intelligent female millenial of colour gets dissed by Garak because his testes have withdrawn into his body at the sight of her. Film at 11.
Fun fact: The tightie righties are so threatened by AOC that they've started doctoring videos of her to fit the narrative they're so desperate to believe. https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a22533711/viral-video-alexandria-ocasio-cortez/
She has said some stupid, uninformed things - Israel, 3 branches of govt,etc, - and seems in over her head but she’s youngish and can hopefully overcome that And it’s always a good idea to disagree with a youngish, self proclaimed socialist
Interesting discussion had the other night; Is Italy the Florida of Europe or Florida the Italy of the U.S.?
The US is the Italy of the planet. Throws its weight around, thinks people owe it favors, and fucks up anything culinary that isn't pizza unless the colored folks cook it. Also, way too much hair gel. See Trump for example.
the first part had nothing to do with the context of my point. He specifically taunted you on one thing, and you said "no but this other stuff - also that one thing"
So, I did some digging into the results so far. While there are a few votes left to count, they are in states in which a few lingering changes to the totals won't affect this analysis. The results, i think, are remarkable - and Remarkably bad for Trumpublicans. In doing this, I'm using the House results as a rough proxy for a presidential vote. It's not perfect because some races were uncontested by one of the major parties, and because there's an element of local p0litics in every house race (due to, if nothing else, varying levels of campaign funding) but it's the only point of comparison to a statewide outcome in every state. In a few situations I adjust using senate races where necessary, see the notes below. In gross numbers, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by 2,868,518 votes or 2.1% In 2018, Democrats exceeded Republican votes by [edit] 9,103,134 votes - a full 8.1% of the vote. Democrats got 90.6% of the vote total Clinton got, the GOP got 80.3% of the Trump vote total. (Total third option votes were only 23.3% of 2016 but that's to be expected given often no third option was available). The GOP lost a net 40 seats (most likely as CA21 is slipping away) [/edit] That's bad enough, but it gets worse. There were 13 states in 2016 that went blue by at least 10 points. Among those states, the average shift in outcomes towards Democrats was 12 points and the median was 11.7. There's a couple of caveats here: MA (which shifted left by 30.4) had 4 seats without a Republican candidate, and New Jersey had 2. If we use the senate for a proxy, the MA figure isn't significantly different and the NJ figure is tainted by Menendez's trial. if you eliminate those two and calculate based on the rest the adjusted shift is 10.3/10.1 -------------- There were 17 states where either Clinton or Trump won by less than 10 points. Among those, the average shift to the left was 6.8, the median was 7.4. Six of those states were already in the D column in '16, of the other 11, six shifted enough to move to a Democrat majority and all but one of those - Arizona - by a statistically significant margin. An interesting note about Arizona: The senate race was a wider margin than the collective House races, so one could argue for a greater shift there than I used in my calculations. Among the remaining five, one was Florida where there were four Democrat seats that were uncontested and no votes were counted, and a fifth where their was no Republican candidate - so real professionals adjust heavily for that. I don't have access to their resources so the only option is to look at other statewide races. Both Senate and Governor were decided by less than a point (the House totals were +5.2 to the GOP) - it seems to me that in this case those are a more reliable proxy than the House and it's those that I used in the averages. That makes Florida the closest divide in the country (which you already know) however, the voter base will change dramatically for 2020 and likely to the left. -------------- There were 20 states that were at least +10 Republican in '16. These shifted Blue, collectively, 7.85 points, and the median was 8.35 14 of the 20 moved more than 5 points to the left Only ONE moved to the right (Arkansas, by 0.5) If I create a map of the 2020 EC using these House results (except in Florida where I'll use the Senate instead) it looks like this Note that here the Dems could lose every state they won by less than 7.6 points this month and still win On the other hand, they are within 2.1 points in NC (who had one uncontested Republican seat and so is likely closer than that), 3.5 in Texas (2.6 if you use the Senate race instead), and 4.6 in Georgia (1.4 if you use the Governor's race as your proxy)and all this on top of Florida being volitile. Interestingly, Montana re-elected a D senator and the at-large House race was only +4.7 for the Republican but i can't bring myself to suggest Montana is in play. So an absolute ceiling for a potential Democrat landslide looks like this: Again, the proxy system here is very crude, but don't think I'm cooking things for a favorable Democratic outcome. Here's some specific notes starting from the most "red" house vote to the least this month: ***If I had used Idaho's governor race instead of the House, it would have made a more dramatic shift (the House vote shifted 3.9, the Gov race was 10.2 better for Dems) ***Same idea for Oklahoma, House shifted 10.9, Gov 24.5 ***In ND, the House shift was 10.7, but the Senate race was 24.8 points better for Democrats ***Nebraska's Gov race was 6.2 points better for the Dems ***In SD, Trump won by 29.8, the '18 House race was +24.3 for the GOP, but the Gov was only 3.4 ***In Utah I had to used the combined Trump/McMullen vote to get a truer representation, the shift from '16 to '18 was 15.8 using the House races. Romney's senate win was closer by I chose to not meddle with Utah because how that third-party vote from '16 breaks down now is impossible for me to parse ***In TN, the Gov race mirrored the House race, but the Senate contest was over 9 points closer. Even counting the House though, it's six points towards the Dems ***West Virginia was weird - Trump won it by an insane 41.6 points, But the GOP won the collective house vote by 17.7 and they re-elected a Dem senator by 3.3. I can only assume Manchin's coattails were stronger than Trumps. ***Missouri was +18.5 for Trump, +12.6 R in the House and +6 in the Senate race - pick your favorite interpretation. ***I could go on. SC gov was closer than the House, so was Indiana Senate and Kansas Gov races. ***In Ohio the Dems preformed better in both Gov and Sen races than in the House but all three were more Dem than '16 Trump by 8.1 GOP lean in the House 5.2 Governor R +4 Dem Senator won by 6.4 About MS... On the one hand, the normal Senate race was R+19 (Trump won 17.8) but the D turnout was up substantially even compared to '16 But the House aggregate was only an 8.3 margin and the Senate race on Tuesday appears to be likely closer. The point in all these notes is that with the exception of MS (incomplete) and Utah (weird in '16) I used the figure that came out best for Republicans in every Trump-won state. And it's still ugly. He got basically 46% of the vote in 2016, his polling as been very consistent between 38 and 42% for over a year now, and his party was down 6% more in the national aggregate this month than it was in '16 - and even when you differentiate between Blue, Red, and swing states the pattern holds. In states that matter (i.e. those where he wasn't already doomed to lose next time regardless) he's cost his party no less than 6-8% So far.
I'm forced to reconsider by views based on the power of your prose and the intellectual depth of your rebuttal! Well played sir. No...wait...the opposite of that.
Are you kidding? That's as eloquent as he gets. Now, watch his snappy comeback to this post. Less than 25 syllables and it broke his brain.
