Good thing the dems are going to take it away and feed it to hillary. This way you don't have knee problems or bruised thighs from running.
that's not Silver personally adjusting it - it's AI and they said a while back that they had to adjust it because it was being too agressive in factoring in early results in districts that were leanig R when 20% or so of the vote was in. What the machine does once returns start coming in is not the same as the official projection which closed WAY before the polls closed and which, frankly, looks damn good. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo As of closing the projection at 11 AM, it had the average House gain at +39 That might even end up a bit low. In the Senate https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=irpromo the highest probability was R-51 but the model had higher odds of R-53 than it did for D-51 Most of the Governor races were pretty much as the polls predicted too, except they seem to have missed by 5 points or so in Ohio.
Kathy Griffen had it right. Beheading is the only acceptable remedy for a treasonous head of state. Just ask Charles I of England and Louis XVI of France.
You wait. Flashtard will be along in a minute to decry the tolerant left and it’s advocating of violence!
yes that is a blessing in disguise! I'll cut minutes off my 1 mile run time without that extra weight, but I can always wear a 25 pound rucksack to compensate for it when I feel energetic.
are you sure 25 pounds would be enough? I must say, good old hill dog is going to love your feast. Oh wait, the dems did not take over the world. My master plan has fallen apart. Damn you republican incels!
Of course he wants to focus on the Senate and ignore everything else, including the fact that he's now unable to pass legislation. The border wall? Forget it. Another round of tax cuts? Nope. Full Obamacare repeal? Not gonna happen. The worst of this outcome is that the GOP can proceed with their court-stacking agenda, and heaven forbid RBG dies in the next two years. Having to flip six seats in 2020 is a tall order. But Speaker Pelosi will be subpoena-ing Trump's tax docs, first order of business.
What did you want to see? Smashed open dams, and drowned people floating around? We got the house, and a shitload of governors. I'd call that a good shopping spree. Better than the doomsday I was clenching my ass for.
And don't poo-poo the governors and state legislators, they can halt or undo some of the gerrymandering fuckery, and have a HUGE impact on 2020.
When all is said and done, I suspect we'll find that a huge majority of the country said they wanted to be represented by a Democrat in the Senate. Even if Florida, Montana and Arizona all go Republican, Democrats will have won the majority of the Senate seats that were on the ballot. And when you count up the votes in the election cycles that go into making up the 116th Congress, it will probably turn out that the vote margin is similar. Republicans are clinging to power through structural advantages, not because of anything resembling the will of the people.
awesome! The Dems will be so focused on crucifying Trump they will drop the ball on everything else. After two years of them exposing themselves as bitter, petty, trifling losers the Dems will piss off the moderates and undecided voters so badly that they vote Republican in 2020. If Trump runs again in 2020 the election is his to lose. I would say Tuesday 6 November 2018 turned out pretty well!
yeah, I'm sure the will of the people isn't a factor. Just keep telling yourself that, and encourage others to do the same for the next two years.
"Democrats will have won the majority of the Senate seats" Yeah because those seats were all Democrat already. It would have been different if all those Senate seats were held by Republicans and lost to the Democrats but that's not what happened. So your point is meaningless. It's very difficult to unseat an incumbent and when the chamber does flip it doesn't do it by large numbers. There was no wave. The Democrats won the House but it was pretty much expected. Same thing happened to Clinton, Bush (2nd Term), and Obama. The Democrats couldn't make any gains in the Senate and lost a couple seats. However it's not good news for Trump. His 2020 chances have gone down because the Rust Belt gave him the electoral wins needed to be POTUS. Those states went back to Democrats. If the economy falls apart however it could be curtains for him. This win is also not good news for the Democrats even though it looks like it is. You've got tensions in the party between the various groups within the party. Pelosi has already said they won't be looking to impeach Trump (unless the GOP is on board) but a huge swath of the party and the party base is demanding it. So you're going to see infighting and if the impeach Trump crowd wins that could play into his hands. You've also got the problem that the Dems don't want Trump to do to them what Clinton did to the GOP in 1994 where he co-opted the credit for a lot of things the GOP was doing. So they may foolishly do nothing but fight Trump for two years. They will be fighting on his terms. That's never a good thing. The country is not going to accept two years of them just screaming at the top of their lungs about Trump.
Well hang on a minute. I don't see how you can claim there isn't structural advantages. Traditionally red states have far lower populations than blue states, but they get the same number of senators don't they? So you can have a state with twenty million people and they'll have the same as a state with one million people, yes? Isn't it a fact that if the legislative elections were based on per capita number of people than the Democrats would be in a more advantageous, possibly dominant position? Isn't it also the case that if the electoral college didn't exist then there would be no Republican president since George H W Bush, given that the popular vote is more representative of "the will of the people"? So I don't see the "will of the people" being on your side.
