Civil War In Ukraine? ...and Venezuela?

Let him mobilize - it's a free country! Oh wait.....well semi-free anyway.

So the Russians have occupied an airport in Crimea, but are somehow denying it...

Wall Street Journal

If these guys are Russian military, then that's a Geneva violation, essentially an act of terrorism. The State Department should place Russia on the list.

Seems to me the U.S. is facing these crisis with the worst possible president in office. Something that won't change for three years.

Got any constructive thoughts Dayton? Not everything needs to be seen as an opportunity to bash politicians you don't like. What would you recommend, if you had the President's ear?

Seeing some stuff about how China bought a bunch of land in Ukraine. Yanukovich is keeping it the money.

How about "this is none of America's business"?

For years during the cold war, there was a generally accepted world order, in which there were the NATO and SEATO countries, which were regarded as "America's territory", the Warsaw Pact countries, regarded as "Russia's territory" and all the nonaligned countries which were nobodies territory, but which America and Russia could try to influence and occasionally fight over by proxy, in an attempt to bring them onside.

Then the USSR collapsed. In the 90s the Soviet Union was gone and Russia was weak, and in the late 90s towards the 2000s, the rising neocons somehow got it into their heads that now the whole world should be America's territory. I guess they thought Russia was gone and not coming back.

But then Russia returned to prosperity and got Vladimir Putin in charge of it, and it's coming back up and re-asserting its power on the world stage, taking back its superpower status, and the Americans who had gotten used to thinking of the world as America's territory to do as they pleased after the Soviet Union fell, are going into convulsions over it.

Hopefully they don't do something idiotic.

None of our business is a valid stand. But I'm asking a different question, which involves a scenario in which we find it our business. Realistically, do we have any leverage there?

We're going to have to frame the discussion first. How heavily are US companies invested in Russia and Russian companies? How heavily are US companies invested in Ukraine and Ukrainian companies?

Sanctions are a no-go. It'll never get past the Security Council. I also admit that a lot of the State Department's trade craft is beyond me and may as well be black magic. But, since sanctions aren't on the table and direct military intervention is out of the question as far as I'm concerned, it's going to come down to the green backs. Does Russia need them to continue flowing? Do they need them more than they need Ukraine as a puppet?

Obviously we can't seriously threaten military force or for that matter sanctions. For various reasons of both common sense and practicality.

The U.S. could threaten (and carry through if necessary) to withdraw from every arms control treaty it has with the Russians. And in addition announce a noticeable increase in defense spending. The Russians do not want to have their economy drained by a threatened renewed arms race. They are content to "win" their localized victories with whatever is at hand. Treaty withdrawals would be considered by them a big deal and something they had to respond to though which would have the potential to drain their economy considerably .

Think what it would say to the Russians if President Obama suddenly committed to an increase in defense spending greater than their entire annual defense budget

Note, in regards to withdrawing from treaties, this need not lead to more nuclear weapons being built or deployed. It would take years to do that and if problems with the Russians abate, it would be possible to reinstitute them.

Where would that noticeable increase in defense spending come from exactly, in light of the recent noticeable DEcrease in defense spending?

Oh that's an easy one Forbin......

Congress will just stupidly raise the debt ceiling by whatever it takes.

The increase in spending that Dayton suggest isn't feasible, but some of his other ideas aren't bad.

Nothing is going to happen other then mouthing off.

Obama is weak. John Kerry is laughably incompetent.

Putin knows this. So does the rest of the world.

President Obama and the Democrats would never do it (and even some Republicans) but once again, cuts in domestic spending "could" be made. IF President Obama put his political weight behind it enough of the Dems would fall into line and the GOP would probably back it.

But face it, a foreign policy crisis is the absolute LAST thing President Obama is interested in. He has chosen to make the Affordable Care Act his legacy and he knows he will have to fight like hell to keep it from dragging down the the Democrats in 2014 and 16. He knows if he loses more in Congress and even worst the presidency in 2016 then the ACA will slowly die.

Russia intervening in Europe's back yard?

Sounds like a great time to cut our military!

Not to nitpick here, but don't we have elite black ops units that conduct missions in civilian clothes/unmarked uniforms and clothing? Is that against the Geneva Convention?

So, what do you think will happen if we keep military spending at the same levels or increase them? You think Pootie-Poot will pull out? Tell me, if the Russians had increased their military spending in '04, would have been for the US pulling out of Iraq? Or would you have had the "business as usual" attitude and recommended that we continued as we had been doing, but keeping an eye on Russia?

Yeah, that occurred to me after I posted. OI don't know the answer, though I expect our resident SpecOps expert can explain.

Calling @Ancalagon!

Sarah Palin said this would happen.

So what's the end game here? Eastern Ukraine annexed by Russia, Western Ukraine becomes part of the EU?

Well, now she has something to watch from her house.

I suspect the Russians will want the Crimiea back and demand a rather large "easement" which they will effectively control. I don't think they're in a position to consider reabsorbing the entire Ukraine...yet.

I used to have a guy from Ukraine working for me, and he was adamant that he was Russian, and that most of Ukraine was really part of Russia. That's a legitimate issue, though it sure is reminiscent of the Sudetenland argument made by Hitler.

I think Putin will push, get what he can, see what the reaction his, consolidate his position then push again. Lather, rinse, repeat.

The time frame we're looking at on the cycle probably depends as much on Russian internal factors than anything else.

I'm curious. The natural gas pipelines to Western Europe go across Ukraine and of course Ukraine gets its natural gas from Russia.

What if Ukrainians get really pissed off (doesn't even have to be govt. action) and blow all the pipelines?

Isn't it the excuse the Russians used for invading the northern part of Georgia? Not the lebensraum part, obviously, but that they were protecting native Russians?

So a couple issues.

One is a general 'Russian' thing. Going back to the Tsars there was a Russian policy of 'resettling' any ethnic group/sect/region that started getting restless. Move them to Russia (out of their comfort zone) and move Russians into their former territory. Not only did this generally settle the uppity group down (in a strange land, closer to center control) but also helped 'Russianize' more outward regions. The Soviets only expanded this policy. So you've got a shitton of ethnic "Russians" all over the former Soviet states. In recent years the Russian government has started giving these people passports. LOTS of passports. They've actually been creating citizens (great grandfather was Russian, here have a passport, be a citizen) all over the region. They've then used these groups to start to exert pressure on the former states politically and economically, but also as a stick. Don't make me come in there and 'protect' my 'citizens'.

The second has to do specifically with the Ukraine and Crimea in general. The country was basically created by the Bolsheviks. Most of the south and east was historically Russia. In fact the Crimea wasn't actually gifted to the Ukrainian SSR until the 1970s IIRC.