Civil War In Ukraine? ...and Venezuela?

I favor that, too, but it should be part of some grand solution in which Russia gets the Crimea, UN election observers (backed by Western muscle) come in to run the new election, Russia agrees to acknowledge and respect the territorial integrity of the remaining Ukraine, and a referendum on EU affiliation/path to membership is part of the election.

That would be a win-win in my opinion.

Hence my earlier post about being surprised no one has sat both groups down and tried to come up with such a solution involving that.

Russia is desperate for a win here - the Ukraine was meant to be the USSR-lite's jewel in the crown, a beacon of "democracy" in a furlough of dictatorships - and is terrified of NATO expansion eastwards. We need to ease that fear, even at the cost of our own pride.

And even as a Russian territory the Crimea would be problematic, Stalin forcibly moved the Tatars there - something they've neither forgotten nor forgiven.

Reveal dirty secrets of Putin and russia legislature gay family members etc.

Why is it the obligation of the west to ease Russian fears?

and don't mention WW2. That ended nearly SEVENTY years ago. How long are they going to ride that?

To avoid a war, that should be obvious to anyone with a shred of human decency, but since it is you, I can appreciate why it wouldn't be the case.

Russia is very paranoid about the West, they do not understand why people would choose the West over them, as they do not understand us (in the 70s, visiting Russian officials could not comprehend how we knew how much of things to make/import with edicts from top), and everything gets viewed through a filter of Western aggression. Think of some of the paranoics on the board, then put them in charge of a military, mafia and wealthy individuals, and you get to see why you tread carefully, because that is pretty much what the Russian political system is.

Russia's days are numbered - see how insular they've got compared to the Chinese and West, whose expansions into territories like Africa show growth, whilst Russia is content to fence itself in, and try to revive it's glory days. Putin's attempts to rebuild a USSR are as a tragic as someone fishing through their past relationships thinking that is somehow moving forward, what we're seeing is the geopolitical equivalent of a 40 year old frumpy woman desperately screeching Adele songs down an empty wine bottle at 3am.

But still, when a wounded bear retreats to its cave, and you want something from near the cave, you tread lightly. Or you get mauled.

Keep in mind that a warm water port was something the Russians fought CENTURIES to acquire. This is also why the Dardanelles are so touchy.

Or you dynamite the cave entrance.....

That's where the metaphor breaks down, Dayton. I appreciate the thought, but can we, in this case, dynamite the cave without injuring the guy setting the charges?

Long term, this is going to backfire on Russia, there is no need for us to blow our fingers off because we're impatient.

Gul, I at least have some Kirk style original thinking compared to Senator Lindsay Graham.

That should be up to a popular vote, shouldn't it? Not the Russians simply taking what they want? What kind of example is this? In Europe, almost every country has a sizeable minority that's the majority in parts of those countries. Should the 'motherland' invade there too? We'd have a Europe of 400 splinter nations and 50 million body bags within a fortnight.

If Crimea wants out, let the people decide and do it according to the laws of Ukraine and Russia. It's quite likely the eastern half of Ukraine would want to vote too.

Also, here's an interesting little factoid:

Didn't know that. Not a part of the world I have ever been to or know much about. Always thought Crimea was some kind of subtropical, quasi-mediterranean paradise

Strassbourg is German,
As German as knockwurst
And it's OURS...

http://www.johnforster.com/?section=music-group-4

I was just riding the metaphor. I"ve already told what I would do regarding Russia (and it didn't involve shooting anything).

But I'm curious as to how (and when) you think this will backfire on Russia? Aren't they likelier to get the idea that "aggression pays". I don't see the European community showing any more resolve that the U.S. (less probably).

What happens if a year from now Putin orders Russian troops into Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (at least one of which has substantial Russian minority populations)? Remember the Baltic Republics are considered "undefendable" by NATO.

For that matter, what if Putin because "no one wants a war" decides to send troops into Poland to keep order?

Remember Poland is a bit of a historical anomaly. For hundreds of years it didn't exist.

By the way, in regards to Russian populations in part of Ukraine, Nazi Germany routinely used the excuse that "Germans were being abused" in neighboring countries as the justification for their military actions prior to WW2.

I loathe Obama with a passion but I would say this about any president who has conducted foreign policy the way he has.

I believe that Putin (and possibly other dictators) are going to push hard the next 34 months until President Obama leaves office because they see that the next president, whether Hillary Clinton or a Republican are going to be far, far tougher to deal with than Obama.

Politically, Obama is in seriously danger of resurrecting the Democratic Party reputation of post Vietnam War weakness in dealing with threats to U.S. interests.

1795-1807 and 1815- 1918 is not hundreds of years.

How many times did we hear about Iraqi-funded terrorists killing Americans in the lead up to the Iraq war?

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431

Oh, boy, do I have a lot of questions about this!

It will backfire because the Crimea has quagmire written all over it. The peninsula is entirely dependent on mainland Ukraine for things like electricity and water. And if Russia wants to seize those resources, it's an actual fight with a sizeable adversary. Russia does not have the muscle or financial standing to really take this on, so if Ukraine wants to stand up against annexation, it will do so.

If world leaders actually had balls, they could take some decisive action right now without the need for military intervention... like immediately removing Russia from the G8 and UN Security Council. The FATF could then issue a directive for member states to freeze all Russian government assets, including any accounts held by Russian politicians. All Russian diplomats should be expelled from G7 nations, and ambassadors to Russia recalled.

Fuck Putin and his Soviet buddies right in the ear.

I'll have to look at a map, but the landform geography should explain most of it.

And then what? The next morning, we all wake up in a world where one of the major and nuclear powers no longer belongs to any global treaties. They're still holding Crimea, and are probably about to invade another 5-10 regions they'd like. The only thing left then is to either let them, or go have a world war. Diplomacy is there for a reason; cutting diplomacy doesn't help us.

Russia was never the nuclear threat the Americans made them out to be. And kicking them out of the G8 and UN doesn't remove them from their treaty obligations unless the Russian government votes to withdraw from every agreement they've signed (which could be a likely possibility).

Yeah, diplomacy is working really well in this situation.

Sometimes diplomacy is about calling bluffs. In this case, cutting off access to a lot of the Soviet fat-cats' money would get their attention pretty quick.

Perhaps so, but that doesn't mean that cutting them loose is progress.

So assume we get the banks to go along with this, to their detriment, despite never having been able to dictate policy to them any other time in the last fifteen years. What exactly do you expect Putin to do next in this scenario?

Who gives a fuck, that's what.

I just proposed some concrete actions that don't involve military intervention. What are your bright ideas? Send in a bunch of diplomats and sing kumbaya?

The other members of the G8 are discussing tossing Russia out.

Tossing the Russians off the Security Council is a bit more problematic. The UN Charter specifically lists that the USSR is a permanent member of the Security Council, and there doesn't appear to be a mechanism for removing any state from the Security Council if they're a permanent member. Given that Russia got the USSR's seat, I'm guessing that the only way to get them off the Council would be to rewrite the Charter, and that's not going to happen.

They should definitely be tossed from the G-8, which is a honor they never earned in the first place. The UNSC idea is a non-starter, but we should definitely throw up some resolutions designed to embarrass them.

On the diplomatic front, our main goal should be working to get other countries to go along with isolating Russia. Aggressive autocrats like Putin and Husein see diplomacy as having no purpose other than delaying their enemies. We shouldn't bother with direct negotiations, just ultimatums. Or is that ultimata?

There are a lot of things we can do short of World War III. Isolate the Russians; cut them off from the world economy; provide financial and weapons aid to Ukraine.

Fuck Russia, they are not a super power, time for them to get the humiliation they deserve.

Putin's upset over Western reporters coverage of bad infrastructure.

Easy to say when you're not suckling on their natural gas teat. Thanks to disgraceful European energy policies, we will get quite cold when Putin (of course without a shirt on) pulls a lever somewhere in Siberia. Which, of course, he won't do. But we will notice a slight price hike of 800 per cent come next winter and the first cold wave if criticism becomes too loud.

So the European response to this is let Putin conquer lesser countries, just don't cut off our natural gas? I'm glad that wasn't the response to the Berlin blockade. Now obviously a Berlin airlift scenario isn't too possible, but winter is almost over, now is the time to take a risk with natural gas supplies.

I have always been quite outspoken about putting all the eggs in one basket. But hey, I'm a nobody and they didn't even listen to experts. What we have now is total dependency. Meaning that Putin can do whatever the fuck he wants to, nothing more than a few harsh words will happen.

Russians have long memories. Take a risk now, pay for it come next November. I wonder what's more important to me: the gentle whir of my gas heating when it freezing outside or what happens in a country I have no connection to and no interest in. Hmmm... guess I'm immoral since I tend to get cold feet fast.

As with the financial crises I am not seeing any political consequences. Our leaders seem happy with the status quo. What I want is a Manhattan Project with clear goals like energy independence by 2025 or something. It's doable. But then we have to bail out our precious banks so there is no money for actually useful projects

Only 40% of Europe's natural gas needs are serviced by Russia. What is this as a percentage of all energy requirements? Maybe some ramping up of oil production in North America, maybe some efforts around LNG, maybe some conservation efforts?

Yeah... as I said. That would require a vision beyond the next elections. And since there are 28 members to the EU, there's an election somewhere all the time. There have been attempts, though. Desertec is one of them. Great idea if you ask me, but the combined cries of environmentalists ('DON'T DESTROY THE, *ahem*, COMMON DESERT MOUSE'S HABITAT!!!!!') and bleeding hearts from the past ('NEO-COLONIALISM!!!!') put it into a coma.

There is not one such initiative that doesn't meet such considerations. For example, Austria has a great potential for fracking. Now most people don't even know what that means but the thought of doing something, anything in their back yards causes widespread hysteria. Add the usual does of horror stories from somewhere else (the tap water will be flammable!) and there, project's over. Much better to turn on the gas from a quarter way around the globe