Democrats slightly favored to keep the Senate (at 50-50) in prediction markets, 62-38%, 29% up from 24 hours ago.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/348874/ Colorado is an all-mail state, so only county counting timing should matter, not early vs day-of.
In the PA counties where all or nearly all of the vote is in, Fetterman is running ahead of Biden and Oz is running behind Trump.
Kornacki says it's "possible" that Democrats keep the house. "Possible". He's too much of a pro to make a prediction like that, but that would be fuckin' awesome. I'm out of popcorn...damn... MSNBC Calls NH for Maggie Hassan.
I am trying to keep my expectations low, but there are a lot of good looking results for Ds. If things continue along these lines there is a decent chance that the Ds not only keep the Senate but McCarthy won’t have a governable majority in the house. So we’ll have Hunter-gate and Impeachment-aploosa but less likely to have defaults or government shutdowns.
Kornacki's big board shows a lot of California enough house seats held by Republicans in districts won by Biden to make things very interesting. Abortion rights measures are winning all over the place.
MSNBC decision desk model projects the house at 219 R 216 D, with a +/- of 13 California votes come in so slowly that we won't have a result tonight (CA) time.
NC-13 projected Dem. That was considered by 538 the most likely tipping point district for the House.
Prediction markets now believe PA, GA, AZ, and NV Senate races will go Dem, resulting in a 51D-49R Senate.
Huh. For the DA's race in SF, the Board of Elections is running more rounds of RCV elimination than necessary. They ran 2 rounds (on a 4-person race) when there was a winner after 1 round.
Sounds like at this point, the House is a dead heat and the Senate will come down a runoff in Georgia. So no red wave, and political violence from MAGA all but guaranteed.
One down ballot race of interest in Idaho where Governor Little (about as good as we're going to do) and Sen Crapo are big winners. But the Attorney General race still hasn't been called. Raul Labrador is a former Freedom Caucus member of the house. He's promising to politicize the office and fight for the legislature's blatantly unconstitutional bills instead of actually, y'know actually considering if their constitutional... He's opposed by a long-time Republican turned Democrat who's gotten overwhelming support from old-line Republicans. Last I saw, Labrador was winning comfortably but the race hadn't been officially called, which is about as much as I'd hoped for. BTW, I did vote for Republican Congressman Mike Simpson. His opponent wasn't any great shakes and Simpson actually has stuck his neck and is pushing a controversial plan to remove four dams from the lower Snake River that are blamed by environmentalists and Indian tribes for driving salmon to the verge of extinction. The plan has plenty of opposition from agriculture and other interests.
MSNBC's reporter who swims in the fever swamps of the right wing echo chamber says they're almost catatonic after spending the whole day ballyhooing the impending "red wave". Oddly the big winner in the prognostication sweepstakes is Michael Moore who predicted a "blue wave". That won't happen, but you've got to give him credit for trusting his (ample) gut than the polls, especially since he famously called Trump's 2016 win. BTW, MSNBC calls PA for Fetterman.
It saddens me to say that Lauren Boebert might have to return to her former life as an escort Fortunately though @TheLonelySquire is around to pay her to pee on him
No red wave, but a clear victory for Republicans. Expect more gridlock. I think it is a rebuke against Trump. I would guess that 2024 is going to be a closer race with candidates that didn’t win, but came close (Hung Cao in my district) that will run again and a huge distancing away from Trump. I don’t see Trump winning the nomination. @Ancalagon is probably right, no shutdowns and Biden will be forced to compromise on Ukraine as well as other things. In the end, a little bit of normalcy will return. Social security is probably safe as well. Republicans are not going to piss off the boomers or gen X too much. Trumpism lost. ETA: the American experiment got a stay of execution.
