Peter Zeihan on the next decade and the end of Globalization

Fair enough, I stand corrected. I misremembered the details on the Moskva, a Slava class cruiser.

Turns out the Admiral Kusnetsov's original name when it was laid down was... the Riga.

I have been paying close attention to Zeihan and I have to assume his predictions on China will come true. This secure, nice middle class life we enjoy here will end in the next decade. Time to move on.

Gonna brush up on Hindi?

@Bickendan

I imagine the Middle East is next for me.

I think we all probably assume Russia is in a very bad place right now. It may be a failed state in the next decade.

If China goes down too... that's a huge disruption in the world order. Especially considering just 10 years ago everyone was predicting the 'Chinese century.'

So the question goes what replaces the current order. Even if Anc is right and the new indo-pacific pact with the US becomes the next major player, that doesn't necessarily mean that globalization will continue.

It looks like Biden is following Trump's lead here on Trade. He's making major moves to detach the US from its place as the overseer of its hegemonic order. First with the removal from Afghanistan, second with the new microchip policy that is already in place. Even without Dutch buy in (IIRC they were hesitant to fully sign on), Taiwan, Japan, the US and South Korea denying China imports of the tools necessary to continue with their microchip technology is a grave threat to their continued expansion. And without foreigners to run their techs, evidently it's becoming apparent they don't currently have the intellectual backdrop to continue.

So that cuts China out of AI. The Great Firewall. The Social System they were building. It's pretty dramatic.

And if the US doesn't continue Pax Americana than whatever 'globalization' will be replaced by independent trade groups like this. Even at scale, it's not the same thing to have access to all markets everywhere.

He has a YouTube channel, you should check it out.

Speaking of the Lianoning and the Kuznetsov it should be noted that one thing the US does well is building solid ships and then maintaining them.

Gerald Ford aside (and I fully believe the kinks will be worked out) US carriers are the most reliable in the world.

The Kuznetsov on the other hand makes the Charles De Gaulle look as steady as a Maytag.

She’s never spent much time out of port. When she does go somewhere under her own power this is what she looks like:



No, she’s not on fire. That is just what she looks at under her own power.

But she’s been in dry dock for five years now with no idea when she’ll be seaworthy, if ever.

Don’t know if the Lianoning or the Shandong
inherited similar issues but I would be very surprised if they were more available than US carriers.

And a carrier at sea is worth two in dry dock.

Hey since it's okay to post Youtube videos now, this guy predicts America moving towards a military dictatorship or theocracy. But he says that democracy will likely remain and people won't starve. In the end we we end up in a good position, but a lot of nasty shit will go down first. China will likely collapse. India will not do much better. Oh and he even points out that Peter Zeihan's books show how we are positioned to have a golden age once we pull out of the shit show. America re-industrializes to the determent of women. We also likely end up with a new religious revival in the 2040s.Funniest thing? We likely annex parts of Canada.

It always has been.

Interesting summary, although most of those predictions seem to clash with the idea of a golden age.

You have to watch the video to find out how.

A democratic dictatorship? How does that shit work?
Or is he just hedging his bets?

Hitler became dictator through democratic means, did he not?

He in fact did not.

Well, kinda. The source still has to be credible. Random internet guy is just a random guy with an opinion. It may be credible, or not, but it's certainly not authoritative in any way.

American higher education spends a lot of time on assessing sources now.

Like you'll notice Zeihan and other professionals don't start out by hawking Ramen, like this vid does.

Yeah, this guy is an idiot. There's absolutely no way the right can lose either the culture war or a civil war. He puts up a map that shows a lot of empty red land as if that has meaning.

Not credible IMO, just confirmation bias.

The guy uses sources to back up his opinions.

Yes he did.

You need more than sources. You need CREDIBLE sources.

This guy tells you the bullshit you want to hear. That's it. That's all.

Show your work.

No I'm not going to because it's pointless to try and have a discussion with you because all you'll eventually do is insult me and make joke about me working at Subway or call me a kid or make fun of my history degree or call me a Nazi or something else. Or you'll just ignore it all together or try and play definition games and I'm getting sick of all of it.

in other words, you get owned every single fucking time and it's getting humiliating so once again you'll shift the blame to those who are proving you wrong...

yes, we do all those things because they're generally far closer to accurate than whatever bullshit you're peddling.

LOL. Made it 30 minutes into the kid’s video and of course the dude is 21 and using his number of followers as evidence of how his conjecture is true.

you found FF's youtube channel then?

In the upper right corner of the page is a magnifying glass.

That’s the search function.

Click on it.

Type in ‘Subway’ in the content field and ‘Ancalagon’ into the member field.

Hit enter.

You’ll see I have NEVER mentioned you working at Subway.

Never. Not one single time.


Only my work in transportation and other transit related issues.

Here. I’ll save you the effort.



This is the projection that has been pointed out to you and yet you refuse/are unable to take care of.

You lump anyone who challenges you into one Don’t-Agree-With-Me-Thus-Meanies pile.

Which by the way, from a psychological standpoint is a textbook immature mode of thought.

Just saying.


So again. You claimed Hitler came to power democratically. Back it up please.

Well, at least he admits he has absolutely no credentials in the same sentence. Wow, I would have never have known. LOL.

How many times have you called me a kid or Jr? Did you do a search on that?

Y’all need to understand. I’m not just throwing this out randomly as some kind of cheap dig.

Go to the ~30m mark. When discussing how memelords will be the new political elite in the upcoming illiberal democracy he seriously uses how he is only 21 and has more followers than almost any history professor as his data point.

This is the kind of quality evidence you find in this video.

No. I didn’t.

I was responding to your limp squib excuse for not knowing history/able to explain it due to me supposedly having called out your Subway career.

Now that we all agree you were just spouting petulant bullshit let’s move on.

You explain how Hitler came to power democratically and then I’ll go run that search for you.

You failed to mention the several maps and charts he uses throughout the video to get his point across.

I think he was referring to the kid in the video...