...where is the bottom of this on Wall Street? 8,000? 5,000? After last night's miserable day around the world's markets where most lost 6-10% of their value, now what?
Well, Iceland officially went belly up this morning. The Icelandic Krona is history. No other country will accept the currency. Seeing as Iceland imports so many of its goods, the country now needs a bailout from the international monetary fund so its citizens can continue to eat. How's that for starters?
Let them row their boats with the power of their backs and eat fish. Let them rape and pillage the northern coasts of Europe.
Hard to say. The DJIA is set to open down 350 as I write this, so 8,000 seems optimistic. Still there's a lot of the financial crisis that hasn't hit yet, no one's quite sure what the government's going to end up doing, and it's more-or-less impossible to guess how much known-to-be-likely future events and the uncertainty about them is already priced into the markets. Right now I'd guess, with no certainty, the bottom as in the 5,000-7,500 range, a lot more pessimistic than I was just a couple of days ago.
One thing I know: I'm unlikely to lose my job. (Touch wood!) I work in the pharmacutical industry, and it's one industry that's actually benefiting from this, as millions of people who have fallen on hard times go on anti depressants, get prescribed various stuff by shrinks, etc.
Well, dire news for Wall Street: European and Asian markets continued to crash. Vienna even closed for two hours. It's safe to say that this will continue in New York too. We'll know in a few minutes...
I think I'm gonna pack the rifles when I drive to Mississippi this weekend - just in case I have to make a diversion.
I'm not going to make any predictions about where it ends, but at some point today it will be back above 8000, probably by a few hundred points. We should see it drop for the first hour as the overnight trades kick in, then it will start to climb back for a while. About 2 hours before the close is the time to really look at it, because if we are in for a real crash, that's when it will happen IMO.
Crazy prediction of the day: The DJIA will, at some point, be positive for the day before dropping back again to a loss of 2% or more.
Dead cat bounce, profit-taking or genuine recovery? Personally, I'd like to see the government put the squeeze on lenders to force them to pass on the interest rate cut, rather than let them get away with improving their margins.
These swings are typical, and not even worth watching unless you are a day trader. It's fun to check in now and then, of course, for voyeuristic purposes. I'm guessing we lose between 400 and 600 by the end of the day, but until then, we can expect to see swings of 1000 points.