"The 1980's are calling to ask for their foreign policy back."

I think we’ll see the Ukrainians launch serious counter attacks in the next couple weeks.

There are questions about how much artillery ammo the Russians have left.

Combined with the Ukrainians getting significant numbers of 155s to theater and the one major advantage the Russian Army has is neutralized.

Womp womp…

I hope it is true but you never know with orcs.

How's that working out for the Russians these days?

The Russians have used geography as a defense. You might remember a few examples of western armies finding an invasion of Russian untenable with very long supply lines.

Uh, you really should read the thread if you think I'm in any way pro-Putin or pro-Russian.

You seem to think my trying to understand the Russians' strategic reasoning is agreeing with it or apologizing for it. You couldn't be more wrong.

If the Russian strategic goal is to secure inlets to its heartland, the Baltics will eventually be on the list. Russia will not simply invade; they will foment discord and attempt to bring political change there.

Notice also that Russia is threatening Moldova. What do you suppose they want from them? Here's a clue:

Dude, they're literally calling them Nazis.

All of these things are true, and Russia does stand to gain from them, although it's hard to see how economic gains will offset their escalating losses.

They also gain strategic distance from the west (Russia's historically great ally) and control of the entire northern coast of the Black Sea making them inapproachable by land from the southwest, once pesky little Moldova's been re-absorbed, which, you might have noticed, is being very strongly hinted at.

You argue like a child.

I disagree. Please take off your partisan blinders for a moment and understand: this does not mean I think the Russians' actions are right or justifiable. I do not.

Spend a few minutes talking with a Russian about their history and you'll probably find they have a bit of a persecution complex, some of which, to be fair, is understandable. Remember, they lost 20 million people in a war with the West within living memory.

One, you can't see how trouble can be fomented in borderlands without an army actually rolling in. Hint: look at what the Russians themselves have done in Donbass.

Two, you need to understand that it's lazy thinking to say "We got nukes, no one can touch us." Not true, because there are ways to undermine a nuclear power without nukes being a solution. And you never want to let a situation materialize that offers the choice of (1) your own destruction or (2) using nukes. When you have nukes, that situation must be prevented.

Russia is experiencing a demographic collapse. They have lots of aging people and much fewer younger people (who are continuing to have fewer children themselves). Russia has even tried to pay people to have children to stave this off. They know it's coming. Total collapse is still some time off, but the numbers make it inevitable.

They have little in-migration, and a lot of their brighter, younger people are headed West. The economic sanctions now in place--even if they were reversed in six months or a year--have exacerbated their problems.

They're doing this because they know the collapse is coming, and they're trying to prolong their state for another generation. Because they're not going to have enough military-age men to defend their vast border in another 20 years.

The demographic decline of Russia is well-known and has been for many years.

That's the rise of populism from which Putin may have benefited, but certainly didn't create.

Indeed, even with the aggressive actions of Russia, many in Europe have been reluctant to cease doing business with them; European bureaucrats were lovin' that oil.

Certainly, any politician is concerned with legacy, but believing the Russians are doing this without some grander strategic thought is underestimating them.

I do agree that it's becoming increasingly likely that Putin will be...dismissed...and the sooner it happens, the better.

If Putin believes that his country is 1-2 generations from collapse (and there is evidence he does) and if he believes he must attain borders that allow Russia to defend itself with fewer soldiers (this seems reasonable), then the Russians may view securing those borders as an existential necessity. That makes Russia even more dangerous than you may think. (Although, I concede that, given the Russians military's exceedingly poor performance in Ukraine, they may not be able to go any further in the near term.)

How am I falling for bullshit? I'm saying Putin and Russia are MORE dangerous than YOU think, not less.

Geez, man, take off the partisan blinders.

I'm real interested in if that steel plant has been operational during all of this or not. Speaking from experience, steel plants quite often produce military equipment, and can readily adapt to switching production items different than they normally make. Where I went to school to be a machinist, one of the final projects a student could do was using a punchcard programmed lathe to make a small cannon. I don't know what Ukrainian trade schools teach their machinists and metal casters, but trust me when I say that it wouldn't be hard for folks in a steel plant to figure out how to make a 19th Century style cannon. Charcoal and sulfur won't be hard to find, saltpeter might pose a bit of a problem, but not too much. And, it doesn't matter what kind of body armor you might have, if you walk into a room with a black powder cannon firing grapeshot at your ass, you're going to have a very bad day.

They're joining.

Sorry, Vlad.

It's a countdown for that bridge falling!

The message is something like "Crimea Bridge will fall. Russians who have moved into Crimea after its occupation in 2014, you still have time to leave the sovereign territory of the state of Ukraine."

So I have made quite a few posts making fun of Russian logistical errors. In the sense of fairness I just want to say that logistics aren’t easy. It takes a lot of work. And there will be fuck ups.

Like sometimes you have to learn first hand that you can’t pull a Uy… in a HEMTT… with a Water Buffalo… in a tunnel…

And you have to learn that maybe making a PFC the driver so you can snooze is a bad idea.

And maybe sometimes an entire SSR (Sustainment at Speed and Range) training mission needs to entirely shut down an Interstate.

There gonna be a lot of learning happening soon…

Anyone else reminded of...

Fairly sure that's meant to read "Russia's war is behind Q1 jump" instead of looking like it might say IQ.

Though the many, many idiots dying at Putin's behest probably were dragging the average down a bit.

Might have worked if it was the Marine's version of the HMMTT. LVS

Putin: "Lavrov! What were you thinking insulting the Jews?!?"

Lavrov: "Sorry, boss."

Putin: "Don't you know they run the world?!?"

"Plus, with all the fires lately, we haven't got enough wood left to burn them all with!"

Well, that was a bunch of nonsense.

For anyone who actually bothered to read it, the Russian threat of Moldavia is specific to Transnistria, yet another break away republic. Paladin doesn't know that none of that area actually is on the Black Sea, nor that large swathes of Ukraine coastline still exist.

Russian demographic issues aren't solved by this war. Again, it exacerbates their problem. If they are worried about that they should seek closer ties to the EU and liberalize their economy. Of course they won't do that as it threatens their leadership. But in no scenario was their population problems, which are largely now based on their completely ineffective response to the Covid Pandemic, helped by this war. The years prior to Covid they were beginning to see an increase in population again.

They also aren't a generation away from collapse even then.

What I do see is Paladin parroting Russian talking points. That they are doing this for defensive reasons - bullshit. That they are a fearsome enemy and we should be afraid. Sorry, not buying it anymore. Yes, they have nukes. If they use those nukes, they will face collapse. And I'm sure that's the one point that China has addressed with them repeatedly. The last thing China wants is a nuclear exchange, they want stability and trade.

The question now is whether Ukraine wants it to end before they are thrown entirely out.

And in that vein:

There's a rule in politics: if you know something is going to happen, predict it.

but...

I think Russia's actually gonna lose this thing.

Victory Day's gonna be a bit awkward this year.

Well, that depends on how much embarrassment Putin is capable of feeling. One thing we should have learned about shitheads like Putin, Trump, Bolsinaro, et.al. is that things that would make most of us bury ourselves in a deep hole somewhere off the grid, don't bother them a bit

This:

Followed immediately by this



They lie, we lie.