"The 1980's are calling to ask for their foreign policy back."

Ancalagon · Sep 22, 2022

Pretty powerful video. In Dagestan locals clearly don't want to go to war with Ukraine. The recruiting officer argues they have to fight for the future. – We don't even have a present, what future are you talking about," replies a Dagestani man.

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1572924327405707264?s=46&t=LPyWxww2MV47UQm0aOwyVA

If you listen carefully there is so much truth being told in that short videoclip. In 0:54 sec the lady from the conscription office says “Are you literate? Do you watch TV and know what happens at all?” The reply is “I don’t watch TV and that’s why I’m staying literate.”

https://twitter.com/panszymanek/status/1572948116793442306?s=46&t=LPyWxww2MV47UQm0aOwyVA

They could be talking about Fox News.

Also, Dagestan is Muslim majority central caucus state next to Chechnya that has separatist issues of its own. If things keep going downhill I wouldn’t be surprised if they start feeling froggy.

matthunter · Sep 22, 2022

Rumours in a post down from that that Russia is drafting those arrested at protests. Whilst they might think it will instill fear in the protestors, I'd say it'll backfire - if they have problems with operational security now, just wait till folk on the front start deliberately passing info.

Tuckerfan · Sep 22, 2022

Poland is issuing iodine pills. http://rmb.reuters.com/rmd/rss/item/tag:reuters.com,2022:newsml_KBN2QN18I:1?channel=FES376

Tuckerfan · Sep 22, 2022

Thread on where Russia is drawing most of their troops from: https://twitter.com/val_voshchevska/status/1572949260034838529?s=46&t=O3eL6hpnUdOPCMzc3WHWGA

Spoiler alert: It’s territories that are populated by non-Russian ethnic groups and have a history of unrest against Moscow.

Tuckerfan · Sep 22, 2022

Tucker Carlson says that if we keep supporting Ukraine, it’s going to kill us. https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/1573113005805604864?s=46&t=O3eL6hpnUdOPCMzc3WHWGA

Steal Your Face · Sep 23, 2022

Tuckerfan said: ↑

Tucker Carlson says that if we keep supporting Ukraine, it’s going to kill us. https://twitter.com/mmfa/status/1573113005805604864?s=46&t=O3eL6hpnUdOPCMzc3WHWGA
Click to expand...

Actually it’ll be super easy, barely an inconvenience.

Ancalagon · Sep 23, 2022

Will the Tankies in the west (and on this board) ever have a ‘Are we the baddies’ moment?

Tuckerfan · Sep 23, 2022

Zelenskyy’s unhappy with the amount of support provided by Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelen...of-israeli-arms-support-they-gave-us-nothing/

The Original Faceman · Sep 23, 2022

Ancalagon said: ↑

Will the Tankies in the west (and on this board) ever have a ‘Are we the baddies’ moment?

View attachment 58122
Click to expand...

Can the latest fad diet beat that? No!

Tuckerfan · Sep 23, 2022

Russian reservists getting shitfaced as their being bused to war.
https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1573438432126570496?s=20&t=11h8i9UBXyE9lMs-_PR5Fg

Uncle Albert · Sep 23, 2022

Board the being bus! We're busing our beings to war!

14thDoctor · Sep 23, 2022

Tuckerfan said: ↑

Zelenskyy’s unhappy with the amount of support provided by Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelen...of-israeli-arms-support-they-gave-us-nothing/
Click to expand...

Never Again!

(But only to us. Fuck everyone else.)

Ancalagon · Sep 24, 2022

A little CLP and some elbow grease and it will be brand new.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1573582019979841536?s=20&t=dQGn69SoNG7fuwHR_KDERg

Tuckerfan · Sep 24, 2022

Canada is investigating Russian war crimes.

Tuckerfan · Sep 25, 2022

Excuse me, but I think your tank is stuck.
https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1573875873043849218?s=20&t=i7D3rCl4080kvIIJ-4j9Fw

Tuckerfan · Sep 25, 2022

Ukraine war: Hundreds arrested as Russian draft protests continue

Tuckerfan · Sep 25, 2022

What it’s like to vote in occupied areas of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1573356436091969536?s=46&t=b3TaJKk3j9sH_HWJco1zmg

matthunter · Sep 25, 2022

Oh please please please let things get so bad for the Russians they have to break these things out:

matthunter · Sep 25, 2022

matthunter said: ↑

Oh please please please let things get so bad for the Russians they have to break these things out:

View attachment 58179
Click to expand...

Thing is, back when I used to play Shadowrun there was a bike in the Rigger Black Book that someone suggested you could mount a Panther Assault Cannon on. And now I see it, it doesn't look as cool as teen me thought.

I also don't know why you would want a cannon that assaults panthers.

Ancalagon · Sep 25, 2022

matthunter said: ↑

matthunter said: ↑

Oh please please please let things get so bad for the Russians they have to break these things out:

View attachment 58179
Click to expand...

Thing is, back when I used to play Shadowrun there was a bike in the Rigger Black Book that someone suggested you could mount a Panther Assault Cannon on. And now I see it, it doesn't look as cool as teen me thought.
Click to expand...

OG Nod had missile bikes.

Ancalagon · Sep 25, 2022

Dagestan is rapidly becoming Russia's most 'troublesome' region. This morning locals gathered to protest against the mobilisation on the Khasavyurt-Makhachkala highway near the village of Endirei. Machine gun fire can be heard

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/status/1573977123920007175?s=46&t=_5SuvZlYMG3Niohnie29sg

Dagestan has chaffed at being a subjugated people of the Russian Empire for a while. Will this (ethnic minorities being 4x more likely to be mobilized than white/real Russians) be what finally kicks things off?

matthunter · Sep 25, 2022

Polish football fans ain't fucking around.

Tuckerfan · Sep 25, 2022

Ex-Putin advisor on why he thinks Putin's invoked the draft.

Former adviser sees influence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Putin's recent decisions

DW: What is your impression of the televised speech made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21?

Andrei Illarionov: We need to understand why he made that speech, why he made his decision on mobilization, on [so-called] "referendums" in the four occupied regions of Ukraine, why he once again started to threaten to use nuclear weapons. All these decisions were announced within the space of three days, between September 19 and 21. All these decisions go against the policy Putin has been pursuing thus far, and against his previously known plans.

For example, referendums were expected to be held either at the end of this year or next year. All of a sudden, the Kremlin has given orders that they be held right away, within the space of just a few days: from September 23 to 27. This is a sham even by Kremlin standards. This is a sham even by the standards of the so-called Crimea referendum in 2014. We need to find an explanation for all these decisions.

Do you think these decisions are a sign of panic in the Kremlin?

I don't see much panic over there. Panic because of what?

Because of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv?

It doesn't look like the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast is the cause of any changes in Putin's decisions and way of thinking. I have a different feeling. All those decisions were announced within the space of three days, between September 19 and 21. It means that those decisions were made by the Kremlin at least one or two days before that, meaning on September 17 and 18 . What happened on those dates?

It looks like the most important event was Mr. Putin's return to Moscow from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand. It seems that Putin had some conversations there that forced him to make all those decisions.

The only meaningful person who could have such a conversation with Putin is Chairman Xi. So Xi seems to have told Putin something that forced Putin to reverse his attitudes towards the war, to radically change his previous plans for "referendums," for mobilization and for nuclear blackmail.

Can you guess what Xi said to Putin?

We don't know. But based on some leaks and on their body language, I would not exclude the possibility that Xi suggested to his junior partner to finish his business against Ukraine as soon as possible — for example, before the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October — and not with Putin's defeat. The fact that Russia has been waging war for seven months and has not been victorious is an embarrassment to Xi and makes him look weak before the most important event in his life. But Xi cannot allow himself to look weak.

Returning to Putin's speech on Wednesday, what will partial mobilization in Russia mean for the course of the war and for Russia itself? Do you think that it is evidence of the failure of Putin's Russia in this war?

This decision is a clear sign of a radical change in the strategy Putin has been pursuing for several months. Before Samarkand, Putin was ready to continue a long-term war of attrition — for years if necessary. The decisions of the last few days mean that his strategy has been radically changed. These are not signs of his weakness or defeat; these are signs of his dependence on Xi.

How many soldiers will Russia be able to mobilize, arm, supply and put on the front line in Ukraine? Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is talking about 300,000, but the Russian army can allegedly count on more than 20 million reservists.

Officially, Russia has mobilization reserves of 18 million. Only 10% of this is 1.8 million, so figures like 1 million, which have appeared in some publications, or even the 300,000 announced by Shoigu, seem realistic. Those mobilized people certainly won't be equipped with the most perfect, high-quality, modern weapons, but there are enough outdated weapons for millions of mobilized personnel.

There have been reports of protests in many Russian cities. More than 1,300 people have been detained by the police. Do these protests have any chance of success? Will these new decisions increase resistance to war within the Russian population?

I don't think so.

Not at all?

Many people outside Russia keep forgetting that this is a totalitarian regime. No totalitarian regime has been removed, destroyed or even changed by peaceful protests. Not a single one in the history of humanity.

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine will soon present a proposal for the creation of a special tribunal to try Russia. Is that a good idea? Or is there a risk that it would make Putin dig in his heels even more?

I think it is a right step. But Putin himself does not care about such statements. He is much more attentive to voices not from New York, but from Beijing.

What is the chance that Putin will be finished in this way?

Sooner or later Putin will be defeated. We just don't know when and what the price will be.

Russian economist Andrei Illarionov (born 1961) was senior policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin from 2000 to 2005. On December 21, 2005, Illarionov declared, "This year, Russia has become a different country. It is no longer a democratic country. It is no longer a free country." Illarionov was one of the first 34 signatories to the online anti-Putin manifesto "Putin must go," which was published on March 10, 2010. Illarionov has been a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for Security Policy since April 2021.
Click to expand...

Bailey · Sep 25, 2022

Between the stances of China and India and the rushed "referendums" I'm thinking that in the next few weeks we are going to see Russia declare their operation a success, claim all the captured territories as part of Russia and publicly offer a ceasefire to Ukraine.

Just giving up all that territory obviously isn't something Ukraine and its allies can tolerate, especially after the lesson with Crimea, but it result in some voices questioning how much support Ukraine should get, since the choice becomes not of which side to support in a war, but whether or not to support a war continuing.

Ancalagon · Sep 25, 2022

General Staff: Russia sends newly mobilized conscripts directly to frontline.

Conscripts do not undergo any military training before being sent to the war against Ukraine, Ukraine's General Staff said.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1574170287406567428?s=46&t=rDvBO_lJeg5CjN1AlK5Rxg

If true: Holy Fuck.

To piggyback off of @Bailey ‘s post above it really looks like he just wants to keep what he has until winter sets in. Then try and reorganize and reconstitute his military while hoping Europe freezes.

I imagine Ukraine might be thinking the same and could go ‘all in’ to grab as much as they can back while they can. They have apparently had some success in the last couple days north of Lyman, getting close to surrounding it.

I could see them ignoring heavily defended lines, instead taking back weakly defended areas and hoping the defended areas will either surrender or just fade away (as happened in Kharkiv). Those that don’t will have a rough winter.

Ancalagon · Sep 25, 2022

Tuckerfan said: ↑

Ex-Putin advisor on why he thinks Putin's invoked the draft.

Former adviser sees influence by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Putin's recent decisions

DW: What is your impression of the televised speech made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21?

Andrei Illarionov: We need to understand why he made that speech, why he made his decision on mobilization, on [so-called] "referendums" in the four occupied regions of Ukraine, why he once again started to threaten to use nuclear weapons. All these decisions were announced within the space of three days, between September 19 and 21. All these decisions go against the policy Putin has been pursuing thus far, and against his previously known plans.

For example, referendums were expected to be held either at the end of this year or next year. All of a sudden, the Kremlin has given orders that they be held right away, within the space of just a few days: from September 23 to 27. This is a sham even by Kremlin standards. This is a sham even by the standards of the so-called Crimea referendum in 2014. We need to find an explanation for all these decisions.

Do you think these decisions are a sign of panic in the Kremlin?

I don't see much panic over there. Panic because of what?

Because of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv?

It doesn't look like the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast is the cause of any changes in Putin's decisions and way of thinking. I have a different feeling. All those decisions were announced within the space of three days, between September 19 and 21. It means that those decisions were made by the Kremlin at least one or two days before that, meaning on September 17 and 18 . What happened on those dates?

It looks like the most important event was Mr. Putin's return to Moscow from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand. It seems that Putin had some conversations there that forced him to make all those decisions.

The only meaningful person who could have such a conversation with Putin is Chairman Xi. So Xi seems to have told Putin something that forced Putin to reverse his attitudes towards the war, to radically change his previous plans for "referendums," for mobilization and for nuclear blackmail.

Can you guess what Xi said to Putin?

We don't know. But based on some leaks and on their body language, I would not exclude the possibility that Xi suggested to his junior partner to finish his business against Ukraine as soon as possible — for example, before the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October — and not with Putin's defeat. The fact that Russia has been waging war for seven months and has not been victorious is an embarrassment to Xi and makes him look weak before the most important event in his life. But Xi cannot allow himself to look weak.

Returning to Putin's speech on Wednesday, what will partial mobilization in Russia mean for the course of the war and for Russia itself? Do you think that it is evidence of the failure of Putin's Russia in this war?

This decision is a clear sign of a radical change in the strategy Putin has been pursuing for several months. Before Samarkand, Putin was ready to continue a long-term war of attrition — for years if necessary. The decisions of the last few days mean that his strategy has been radically changed. These are not signs of his weakness or defeat; these are signs of his dependence on Xi.

How many soldiers will Russia be able to mobilize, arm, supply and put on the front line in Ukraine? Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is talking about 300,000, but the Russian army can allegedly count on more than 20 million reservists.

Officially, Russia has mobilization reserves of 18 million. Only 10% of this is 1.8 million, so figures like 1 million, which have appeared in some publications, or even the 300,000 announced by Shoigu, seem realistic. Those mobilized people certainly won't be equipped with the most perfect, high-quality, modern weapons, but there are enough outdated weapons for millions of mobilized personnel.

There have been reports of protests in many Russian cities. More than 1,300 people have been detained by the police. Do these protests have any chance of success? Will these new decisions increase resistance to war within the Russian population?

I don't think so.

Not at all?

Many people outside Russia keep forgetting that this is a totalitarian regime. No totalitarian regime has been removed, destroyed or even changed by peaceful protests. Not a single one in the history of humanity.

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine will soon present a proposal for the creation of a special tribunal to try Russia. Is that a good idea? Or is there a risk that it would make Putin dig in his heels even more?

I think it is a right step. But Putin himself does not care about such statements. He is much more attentive to voices not from New York, but from Beijing.

What is the chance that Putin will be finished in this way?

Sooner or later Putin will be defeated. We just don't know when and what the price will be.

Russian economist Andrei Illarionov (born 1961) was senior policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin from 2000 to 2005. On December 21, 2005, Illarionov declared, "This year, Russia has become a different country. It is no longer a democratic country. It is no longer a free country." Illarionov was one of the first 34 signatories to the online anti-Putin manifesto "Putin must go," which was published on March 10, 2010. Illarionov has been a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for Security Policy since April 2021.
Click to expand...

Click to expand...

This also seems plausible. China and India have both made it clear they want the war over.

Ancalagon · Sep 25, 2022

«We are not blind! Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia is on foreign soil. No to war!” Dagestan women protest Putin’s criminal mobilization. We thank them for their bravery and urge others to join. Do not let Putin pay for his failed military adventures with lives of your close ones.

https://twitter.com/ukraine/status/1574127821034848263?s=46&t=rDvBO_lJeg5CjN1AlK5Rxg

Putin has to start worrying about the rest of his empire. Is this war of conquest really worth it?

Ancalagon · Sep 26, 2022

The FSB reports that 261,000 men have fled Russia between Wednesday, when the “partial” mobilization was announced, and Saturday night.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1574121847641149440?s=46&t=rDvBO_lJeg5CjN1AlK5Rxg

Tuckerfan · Sep 26, 2022

People have apparently taken to burning draft offices in response to Putin.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1574295637092229121?s=46&t=RYTIclVG9B7EhBKSHyFJzw

Tuckerfan · Sep 26, 2022

13 people dead in a mass shooting at a Russian school. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1574336457422082050?s=46&t=qdjypzA8it0mpVrxXLCtKA

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