The 2020 Presidential General Election thread

If we're not going likely or feasible: A filibuster-proof majority in both houses. Make sure the party of corruption can no longer sabotage the country.

Also watched it. Brilliantly done, but Cohen should have let it play out some more...he interrupted Guliani in the middle of fondling himself.

I would judge the quality of a candidate based on their campaign. On paper Clinton was well qualified to be President - but in practice her candidacy was terrible.

It's basic, but still raised a smile - Biden's campaign said they've finally located Trump's COVID response website:

https://trumpcovidplan.com/

If you don't wanna click the link, see spoiler below:

Learn More

Obviously no way to prove it, but I think that if Hillary had won the 2008 nomination, chances are she would have beaten McCain/Palin. After 8 years of Bush, the Democrat would have had an advantage. We wouldn't have gotten to the point where some of the factors against her -- social media, Russian disinformation campaigns, voter suppression efforts, and e-mails/Benghazi -- would be as prevalent or even existed.

Along similar lines, if the 2016 match up was her versus any of the other Republicans vying for the nomination, she probably would have won. I think Trump did a job of attacking Clinton that none of the rest would have dared, and spoke with a bullhorn to people who the rest would have at best dogwhistled.

Only 6 texts yesterday from the Trump campaign and none so far today. I am disappoint.

They don't love you any more.

Perhaps it wasn't the best way to make friends with them when you said that in terms of being a model citizen, Trump is 7 points below Al Capone, and in terms of IQ he is 3 points below celery...

The line to vote at my early voting place today. I took the pics 45 minutes ago and I’m still not inside, despite the fact that the line is moving smoothly.

It took a total of two hours for me to vote and the line was almost completely gone by the time I got out.

Brian Williams throwing shade.

ATLANTA — An exclusive Channel 2 Action News/Landmark Communications poll shows President Donald Trump has expanded his lead in Georgia.

Oh, goodie. You guys might win GEORGIA.

@T.R is a chronic victim of confirmation bias. "Polls are meaningless unless they say what I want."

538 shows two polls added Friday: one shows Trump up 4 and the other shows Biden up 4. I am so over this shit....

This is a map of what happens if each candidate wins the states they're polling over 50% in. Blank = no one over 50%. This bodes well, but frankly not enough of them are high enough over 50% for comfort. It's true that Clinton didn't lose a single state she was polling over 50% in, but she did underperform her polling in 9 states (albeit the least red of which was TN).



So Trump needs to actually win over Biden voters between now and the election. He can't just rely on undecideds.

Frank Luntz has come out and said that if Trump against wins despite what the polls show, his profession will be finished. He might be right. Who is going to give any credibility to these "experts" if they are so far off the mark again?

Meanwhile thousands of people have voted early here at the AT&T Center where the Spurs play.



Florida is trash.

It was pretty even-handed as a rap battle.

Polls will always be with us. If for no other purpose than in-house use by politicians. That said, the constant horse-race reporting by the 24 hour "news" channels might be curtailed, which might not be a bad thing on the whole. The real problem is not with poll's accuracy,it's with the lack of understanding of how to interpret them. It takes a certain level of sophistication to understand (although not much, really) the concept of margin of error. However, considering that we (collectively) elected Donald Trump, I'm afraid that even that minimal level of sophistication is lacking.

Damn... just damn!

I would say that of the three ERBs about presidential races, the person I'd say won between the two of them won the actual presidency (not including Luncoln,of course). I'd give this one to Joe Biden, just because of the closing line.

Only 3 texts from the Trump campaign today. Interestingly, the last one showed up an hour and a half later than any other text I’ve gotten from them (almost midnight). That’s a good way to piss people off. Certainly puts a new spin on “booty call.”

Wait, just got another one.

And another one. Either there’s some kind of network problem and these texts have been delayed, or someone noticed that the numbers aren’t at all what they need them to be as is panicking.

I would surely love to see, on election night, instead of red and blue states, some network uses black and blue states. The collective pants-shitting could be considered a country-wide biohazard, however.

Each candidate has a 3.something-ish MOE, not the poll as a whole. So they’re entirely compatible with a truth between a 3.5 point advantage either way. Probably not 4 though. The more polls you average, the better your guess. Weight them for recency and pollster quality, and you have 538’s “polls only” forecast.

Is this the Trump Administration's version of Carter's infamous "sweater speech"?