The Fourth Biennial Wordforge Election Prediction Thread!

So by "crackers" you mean "crazy" right?

 

Hey bud.

Racist.

; )

 

gain

 

Aside from the presidential race, Republicans in the senate race are doing quite well too.

 

Looks as if Republicans are going to hold the Senate and the House and probably the White House.

 

Earlier today most people had predicted a close race with an ultimate Hillary victory, but not that big a deal compared with the "under-card" (probably the wrong word but you know what I mean) races that the average person doesn't pay much attention to. This would have been considered a victory in and of itself. But if they win the whole shebang..........incredible. Damn I should have bought more beer to chill out with, I'm too wound up to get to sleep when this ends.

 

Well, I need a drink. Or ten.

 

WAIT A MINUTE! This whole all-night election was just a ploy to sell more booze! Mission accomplished.

 

Did you guys see propagandist Nate Silver post heavy disclaimers earlier today? He knew the reputation was going suffer with all the false analysis. Sad.

He's a science denier.

 

This is a great day for the Republic.

 

Up to 46 electoral votes went to Hillary because Johnson was the spoiler.

 

It ain't over yet! There might not be closure because it takes forever for the remaining states to count their absentee votes. Fuck it - I have to get up for work so I guess I'll find out in the morning.
So anyone wonder how all the polls didn't predict this? One pundit's view was that many people would not admit they were going to vote for Trump because they didn't want to be put in the same "deplorable" basket as the racists, sexists, zenophobics and other terms associated (falsely) with Trump. So the Trump fans kept their mouths shut for the most part, because they didn't want to risk offending anyone. But there's nobody to point & laugh at you in the voting booth.

 

At this point Trump wins or we get civil war, because we know Democrats are busy printing out pre-marked ballots.

 

It's either Trump or more election fraud.

 

Well fuck...

 

Bow to our new, Cheeto colored grifter overlord, Mountain Dew Camacho.

 

It didn't exactly help, did it?

 

Give me another few days and I'll bring in my final estimate.

 

Did I win?

 

Speaking of predictions:

The Hill

Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands ofDonald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims — dismissed and mocked by the experts — turned out to be true.

“It’s going to put the polling industry out of business,” said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. “It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

Going into Election Day, a strong majority of pollsters and election modelers forecast that Democrat Hillary Clinton would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes.

The final University of Virginia Center for Politics model had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump, with Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states that she lost.

Liberals lashed out at data guru Nate Silver for giving Trump a 35 percent chance of victory heading into Election Day, claiming he was putting his thumb on the scale for Trump by making the race appear closer than it was.

Of the 11 national polls to be released in the final week of the race, only two — a Los Angeles Times/USC survey and one from IBD/TIPP — showed Trump with the lead.

The L.A. Times survey was criticized as “experimental” by industry experts for polling the same pool of people and for the way it weighted black voters.

But for the second consecutive presidential cycle, the L.A. Times and IBD/TIPP surveys were among the most accurate, making them the gold standard going forward.

The rest of the polls showed Clinton with leads of between 2 and 6 points, boosting the Democrat to a 3.3-point national lead in the RealClearPolitics average.

And the battleground data was just as biased against Trump.

There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.

Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.

Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.

Election modelers declined to flip either state into Trump’s column, even as the Clinton campaign rushed furiously to defend those states in the final days of the election.

And Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4 points, despite polls showing a toss-up there. ​

Lots more at the link.

 

Who won?

 

The LA Times tracking poll, IBD/TPP, and one other outlier.

 

grumpycat.jpg

 

The fucked up thing is that the only big name Democrat who has been calling it for Trump for months was.....shudder....Michael Fucking Moore!

 

I'll run the numbers soon ... because Louisiana has two House runoffs and a Senate runoff, I'll run them with both extremes and see if they will make a difference (One of the House runoffs won't, because it's two Republicans.)

However, the House is making me a little crazy, because it seems like everyone has a slightly different number. The NYT has three seats unaccounted for and Google has four, and aside from the Louisiana ones, I can't tell which seats they're considering undecided.

 

OK, seriously, where the fuck are the missing House seats? Fox still has four seats unresolved, the NYT has three ... two of them are the Louisiana runoffs ... the NYT has two California districts on its map that are in the "leading" color, but that's two, not the one (not counting Louisiana) that they show still outstanding on the top line ...

 

All right, it does look like Fox's uncalled ones are the California 7th and California 49th. Off to check local news sites, I guess...