Nate Silver gives 7 points at the minute, cautioning that it's early days but that if that sort of lead is maintained it will become unprecedented for Trump to pull it back.
There is even a poll showing a Clinton lead of 15 according to Nate Silver. The Fox poll might be an outlier, but maybe it isn't. A weighted average is likely the best approach, but the outliers are worth watching. [edit] Here's the poll with the 15% lead (PDF) They have it as: Clinton, 46% Trump, 31% Johnson, 7% Stein, 2% Undecided, 15%
I wouldn't say that. That are a lot of relatively well off older white dudes who are pissed off and backing him. Yes, part of it is they think demographics have changed way to fast as they look around and see nothong that looks like the 1950's America which they grew up on but another part of it is the safe, well paying blue collar jobs that used to sustain a lot of the middle class are gone now and Trump has dared to name trade policy as the culprit. Which is largely true, btw. I am still for free trade but we really have let China get away with murder, devaluing their currency in a predatory manner, using state owned and subsidized companies do drive the competition out of business, and once that competition does go out of business China gets even more predatory . Witness what happened with rare earth elements which a state owned and extremely heavily subsidized Chinese firm quickly captured 98% of world production then China quickly put export controls in place and told all electronics firms to start manufacturing in China or they wpuldn't get any REEs. Virtually all electronics use them. When Japan and China had a dispute shortly before this China blocled all REE exports to Japan so they are very happy to use state companies and subsidies to dominate markrts then deny foreign competition access to strategic raw materials when ever it suots their purpose. We really do have to punish such behavior and, if necissary, block Chinese products which are subsidized. Right now China is doing the same thing with steel world wide yet the west isn't fighting back. It is time that changed and China is either forced to play by the same rules or simply tariffed off the market.
Anyone with basic knowledge of a computer can check and see how Trump has been right there moving factory jobs overseas for his clothing line. He's just as much a hypocrite as Hilary is about being for the little guy on that end.
I agree. His supporters don't seem to care about such facts though and seem happy that someone is finally talking about the matter though. Hillary had an event a few days ago at one of the latest American factories making men's ties. Trump had said he made his ties in China because no one made them in the US and Hillary haranged him pretty well while standing in the factory holding up American made suit ties.
People vastly overstate the role of racism in Donald Trumps support. Sure, out of millions of people you are going to find some true racists but I think you need to look at his support in a more nuanced manner. 1) Trump was willing to make a real issue out of illegal immigration while in general the Republicans act absolutely terrified of it. Lots of his supporters have little to no problem with Hispanics per se. What they do have a problem with is people whose very presence is a violation of the law and the idea that American CITIZENS have to tip toe around the very subject to avoid making Hispanics angry. 2) Trump was treated with kid gloves by most of the other Republicans because they were all terrified that he would "spend 500 million dollars of his own money, run as a third party candidate (like Ross Perot) and make it impossible for the GOP nominee to win". By acting like they were afraid of Trump the other GOP candidates ended up giving him lots of undeserved stature and enabled him to establish himself. And in reality Trump has shown a lot of reluctance to spend his own money. 3) While Democrats have attacked the Republicans for "opposing President Obama at every turn", lots of Republican citizens believe the Republican leadership has rolled over for Obama for years. They voted the GOP in power SIX YEARS ago and haven't seen a major Obama initiative blocked. Of course there are good reasons for this. Mainly the Democratic minority in Congress acting as "blockers" for President Obama to prevent him from ever having to veto anything but that's a hard to explain position. Trump hasn't been afraid to confront Obama and for that matter the much despised Hillary Clinton who the GOP sees as "here we go again". The 1990s when it seemed nothing they did could touch Bill Clinton.
1) illegal immigrants are stealing no jobs that actual Americans eant. Unless there's a lin of white kids looking to pick strawberries that I've missed. 2) I think no one expected him to win either way, which is the biggest reason they ignored him. 3) sucks to be them, then.
QFT. Of all the positions Trump has flip flopped on, Mexican rapists and Muslim terrorism have stayed fairly consistent.
Ofcourse because when someone is slinging shit you wont get hit with the shit if you are behind the shit thrower.
Seems to me that the R's had 15 or 16 different candidates to select from, and trump came out to be the chosen one. How the hell did that happen? I guess the PEOPLE made their choice known and the establishment didn't like it. Maybe the RNC don't like the PEOPLE ?
1. You're just realizing this now? 2. They certainly don't care for the poor, unwashed masses, at any rate.
In general, the money men in the GOP preferred JEB Bush as people with money tend to prefer a well known, predictable candidate. GOP office holders preferred Walker as he had a history of electoral success in a swing state. Reaganites preferred Rubio as he had the whole “mini Reagan vibe”, was young, handsome, from a swing state, and as a topper had saved Nancy Reagan a few years earlier from a serious injury. Christian conservatives in general were partial to Ted Cruz for various reasons though he was (is) detested by current GOP office holders for trying to force them to take stands on controversial positions in Congress. So several key GOP groups did not have Donald Trump as anywhere near their first choice.
