The Red State Murder Problem - Why are murder rates 40% higher in Trump states?

You might not know this but California and New York State also have cities.

Some are even bigger than OKC and Omaha. (A hint, there is a reason you have have say state after New York when talking about the state.)

And yet those states have lower murder rates than Oklahoma and Nebraska.

Weird huh?

They do?!?!?

Twat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha,_Nebraska
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln,_Nebraska
Nebraska's area is just over 77,220 square miles (200,000 km2) with a population of over 1.9 million. Its capital is Lincoln, and its largest city is Omaha,




"big cities"

Fucktard. Was Nebraska the only state listed in the original post? No. Shut your cock socket and think before you speak.

The Watcher Of Worlds- What if.....UA owned his fuckuppery?

UA- Ooops, my bad, that was dumb. *Catches on roaring blue fire, and turns into a giant screaming bat skeleton*

Would these be real fuckups you can demonstrate with facts that exist in reality, or more strawmen from your diseased mental organ?

well, there's this...

the other one mentioned was Idaho, wasn't it?

there a hidden metropolis there that I'm unaware of?


no matter, all the points from rich kids with still married parents being murderous psychos to mid sized, mid west *ahem* "cities" being rape and murder resorts still check out. Bonus points for revealing yet another facet to your napoleon complex.

Spaceturkey/Anc slam-dunking on your ass repeatedly.


Yeah, yeah, blah, blah, mental organ, blah, whatever prevents the whole bat-skeleton thing, snookums.

Sorry.

I guess I’m just not that bright, because I can’t follow your logic.

If, as you say, cities cause crime shouldn’t states with a larger percentage of their population living in cities have higher murder rates?

But your feels aside, the data seems to show quite the exact opposite.

That in fact there is a negative correlation between marginal density and murder. [See data in the OP].

So yeah… Guess your spinning has effectively confused me.

What are you trying to say?

Lol, why would I use a match, boomer? Maybe I should break out a flint and start a spark with a machete while I'm at it?

what's really mindblowing is Toronto has a higher population than the entire state of Nebraska (and the GTA is about the size of Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Idaho combined), yet somehow still manages to have lower crime rates across the board despite packing all of these people (many from single parent households) into a 20 mile radius.

Is it that we're multicultural? Public healthcare? lack of guns?

Help me out here... why is it that there's up to a 50% higher rate of murder in an entire state that's got fewer people in it than the city I live in?

More data from the Third Way, the center left think tank behind the article.

Thread: https://twitter.com/ThirdWayKessler/status/1582741682113900544
A few facts you glossed over.

Fact 1) in 2020, Trump-voting states had murder rates 40% > than Biden-voting states (11,521 murders/140,533,769 pop vs 10,946/189,418,128) https://rb.gy/rmscyz 1/

Fact 2) In general, blue states have more blue cities than red states. That's what makes them blue. So the excuse that it's just blue cities messing up red states rings a bit hollow.

Fact 3) if Jackson MS were removed from MS murder calcs. MS would still have the highest murder rate in America.

Fact 4) if we eliminate Jackson, New Orleans, Louisville and Birmingham from their respective states, murder rates in MS, LA, KY and AL would still be in the top 5. If we get rid of St. Louis, MO moves down to 8th.

Fact 5) in 2020, Mississippi had 5 times the murder rate of NY. Kentucky 4 times the murder rate of NJ. South Carolina 2X the murder rate of CA. These Dem strongholds have lotsa blue cities

Fact 6) for 5 years running, Kern County has won the murder capital of CA award. The county seat, Bakersfield, is hours away from SF and LA and has a GOP county exec, GOP mayor and is blessed to call Kevin McCarthy my rep

Fact 7) sometimes these blue cities have red mayors. the murder rates NY, LA and SF are one-third that of Tulsa, Jacksonville and Stockton

Fact 8) Perhaps one reason for the red state murder problem? The 25 largest Dem run cities employ 75% more police per capita than the 25 largest GOP run cities

I'll conclude with one final thought. The main point @kyliemmurdock
and I made in this paper is that national crime reporting and narratives are lazy. Dozens of murders happen each day. Why report on this one? Because it fulfills are preexisting views.

One he doesn't address but should be common knowledge by now - gun laws in red states are very, very lax. A blue city with high crime in a red state is going to have far more guns and therefore far more murders. A blue city in a blue state usually has stronger gun control laws, and unsurprisingly both fewer firearms deaths in particular and homicides in general.

Again, the South has far, far more murders per capita than the NE, and there's a direct correlation between gun control and reduced homicides at the state and regional level.

Something about that still isn't passing the smell test.

If 80% of your state is concentrated in one city, you might be able to claim the remaining 20% has a higher murder rate, but it could still be a comparatively tiny number of actual dead bodies. It's dishonest not to acknowledge that.

Same with comparing individual states. How many more people live in New York than fucking Missouri? And speaking of New York, what's the murder rate if you subtract NYC?

And are we talking actual murders, or homicides, some of which are neither murders NOR a crime?

And the cute little lines about gun control. Are we meant to conclude that all of those were not only murders, but murders committed with firearms? I don't see the distinction made. An accidental omission, I'm sure.

Even without the boilerplate Orange Man Bad jabs, this is clearly a cherrypicked selection of data with an overt political agenda, carefully presented in a way that leads to an unsupported conclusion while maintaining plausible deniability. Or rather, to contradict and undermine the very factual conclusion that most murders committed with firearms occur in a small number of very large, very blue cities with oppressive gun control laws already on the books. Wank material for liberal urban elitists who need a break from huffing their own farts (hi, Anc! ).

wow... you literally jsut made an apples to oranges comparison and still have the gall to accuse others of dishonesty?

look, we're measuring by rate per 100K people. That's the way these sort of stats work and with which you seemed willing to go along until facts worked against you.

so if Omaha has a rate of 6.9:100K in 2017 and NYC's was 3.5:100K, what is the conclusion? well, other than as you've told us, guns are a hell of a lot more certain to stop someone who's scared you (cross ref with aggravated assaults, maybe?)
if it's easier for you. Alaska and Mississipi had the about same rate of gun deaths at 24.4/24.2:100k in 2020. in actual numbers that's 179 vs 710


those other things are called "manslaughter", and can still carry a life sentence... (yes, I know you're trying to excuse your burglar murder fantasy... It's a safe bet that those aren't listed as murder stats unless there's a conviction. nice try tho)

That's a lot of mental yoga for a conclusion that's wrong. No crayons, but here:





now this nest part is interesting, as looking at NYC vs the state of NY, it appears the state rate is a lot higher.

Save your breath, we've been through this exact thing before. UA always falls back to claiming per capita figures are pointless and raw figures are where you should be looking.

Yes it's as dumb as it sounds.

Not a single answer to the issues I actually raised. Just half-assed strawmen.
Anybody else?

where's the strawman?

much like stats, words also have meanings behind them.

as a great man once said, "I do not think it means what you think it means.".

you haven't actually raised any issues, near as I or anyone else seems able to tell.

It makes a lot more sense once you realize that ‘crime‘ and ‘cities’ is actually just code for ‘non-whites’ and ‘places non-whites live’.

It’s why all the stats and facts posted about crime and urban areas don’t phase them. Because that isn’t actually what they are talking about/are afraid of.

You are not only bringing facts to a feelings fight but they are the ‘wrong’ facts for the fight.

UA's definition of strawman is facts that disprove his feelings. That is the way he always uses it. It is unfair for you to use things like facts on his crying pissbaby fit of ignorance. It is arguing with a 2 year old over unicorns being real. UA and people like @Lanzman really want guns to make the world safer, but every fact in the world shows that since their invention they have made violent killings and suicides so much easier and worse. The only improvement that might be out there is they might make violent death less painful over all because you do not die from long term infection as much?

The real problem is not them. The real problem is their outright lying is believed by some people because it is repeated so much, and their lies fall into expectations. You would expect NYC to be far more violent than the middle of nowhere in a red state. But if you think it through for five extra seconds it makes sense that statistically that ends up being wrong when you consider how many more people are in NYC and therefor you would need so many more gun deaths there for every single death in a much less dense rural alabama town.

If I am angry at someone in NYC and I want to shoot them there are always people around. It is not guns that deter me, but rather that I am goinjg to get identified and caught. If I am in the middle of some farm in AL I can get into a gunfight and no one is going to know. I have been shot at on an Alabama farm, but I have never seen a gun on NYC, Baltimore, Atlanta, Miami, and any other area I have wandered through. There was no one around for miles in AL.

There are things you have to think through for more than five seconds. Like the idea your gun will protect you the best. Guns are the fucking worst protection out there. The guntards only have lies and their feelings.

Blacks commit the most murders by far. Where are blacks mostly concentrated? The South. That's why there's more murders in red states. The Yankee states are mostly white, just ask @Diacanu. They don't want black people to live there unless they are liberal elites like the Obamas. You know, the ones that are, "light skinned, with no negro dialect" as Harry Reid once said.

And there it is…

We already know you are a racist so you no longer need to tell us without telling us. Everyone knew anc was talking about you, and some others, without mentioning you.

Yep there it is, the facts that you were talking about.

funny... here the murder capital is Deadpool's hometown that rhymes with "fun" (Regina, SK with 5.67 victims per 100 000 pop)

Winnipeg and Thunder Bay are the next best places to get killed.

I think there's about 30 Black people in all three of those place combined. "Afro-Caribbean Canadian" doesn't even register in Wpg's ethnic demographics.

wonder if there's a factor that drives crime other than race? Well, not really. But I am curious as to why a guy with a history degree wouldn't consider it as more relevant?

Your sheet is showing.

There's nothing racist about pointing out facts, FBI statistics in fact.

Said every phrenology adherent, confederate officer, and Emmett Till's killers.

I do wonder if such a stat takes into account white cops shooting unarmed and innocent black men.

Maybe it does, so let us see your work. legal murders are still murders.

The first part of BC's comment is absolute fact. The homicide rate among black communities is far higher. In 2018 for example there were equal numbers of blacks convicted of homicide as whites - despite them including hispanics in the 'white' category and black people only making up 14% of the population. It's not racist to note that the morgues are full of black people killed by other blacks. It's a hard truth that shouldn't be ignored.

The question is why - and that includes the fact that poverty is a direct contributor to crime and homicide rates, racist policies in the US have hugely impacted black communities by destroying wealth, that there is an antagonistic relationship with most law enforcement and POC, especially black people, due to racist laws. And that resources to help get people out of poverty are often impacted by racist interlocutors administering those policies."

So the rest of his statement is pretty problematic.

A stopped clock is still right twice a day. No one is questioning the fact. What people are questioning is his reasons for brining it up.