Defiant Kurdish women have removed their hijabs, walk in streets of Bukan city, defying regime's mandatory hijab rules. Amid ongoing protests in Iran, many women in Iran have stopped observing rules described by activists as "gender apartheid". https://twitter.com/KhosroKalbasi/status/1582460769731432448?s=20&t=c5XAqPBUmSWrzkB5j41QSg
Me too, but why are you opposed to this states right to decide what rights women should have? Unless you've changed your tune on that and I didn't notice?
Because I’m not opposed to basic constitutional rights that don’t violate the non aggression principle. Abortion requires nuance.
Workers are striking in Iran over the crackdown. https://twitter.com/FridaGhitis/status/1583965070362832897?s=20&t=yCnM-r8ZwJPUY09gD9Ui-g
Somebody shot and killed two Iranian generals. https://twitter.com/asaadhannaa/status/1584941903191355392?s=46&t=aDbZAZsEerL0vl4UrduWdw
Leader of a nation historically known for meddling in the Mid-East and toppling foreign governments is the first to suggest that regime change in Iran would be a good thing. Wait, I'm being told that this is incorrect and that it's actually a guy made of beaver pelts and maple syrup saying this. https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1586654844298809344?s=20&t=WorFNwVVDsZ-wGD9BNO9Sg
Iran is bringing in troops from Baghdad to fight protesters. https://twitter.com/elliecohanim/status/1587615276966858757?s=46&t=110SxCukNPxa7pwBfLe_6g
VP Harris is using her platform to call for the UN to expel Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...and-the-un-commission-on-the-status-of-women/
Yeah, it's a thing they do. The argument is that by adding fuckstick countries to such commissions they can build trust in nations that might otherwise be dubious of the claims of abuse. After all, if the US says that a country doesn't respect human rights, folks are going to have questions about that, especially if the country we're talking about has a lot of natural resources we're interested in.
Did Iran hack Congress? https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1590918623052238849?s=20&t=V09bP6nWhOEbwsAigFu8gQ
It appears a general strike is breaking out all over Iran. The cities are dominated at night by the protesters. The college campuses are shut down. The workers at the Eshafan Steel Company have walked off the job. Bazaars are closing. This is a really interesting test. Can a peaceful protest overthrow an authoritarian regime? In the past only if the regime gave up. We'll see. https://imgur.com/gallery/ejm2yp8
This is actually a really big deal. The Bazaari (independent shop owners) are the Iranian version of ‘Middle Class’. They want stability more than anything. When they turned against the Shah that was the end. The regime has been buying them off by allowing them to smuggle and run a black market without cracking down. They have actually been making money under ‘Maximum Pressure’. So if, IF (and one report doesn’t cut it) the Bazaari turn against the regime this would be a big deal. [name of partner] (my Azari-Iranian partner) flew in for my birthday and I just asked and they said while it worth watching this is the three year anniversary of the 2019 fuel subsidy riots so not necessarily a Big Deal. They might just be warning the regime that they need to be taken care of. If the bazaars stay closed on day four then we might be seeing something.
Any government can be overthrown if enough people are dissatisfied enough to die to do it. The question is whether Iran is at that point. All we can do is watch and wait. ETA: now that the government is handing out death sentences, the question becomes whether this will extinguish the fire or fan the flames?
Dying to do it actually doesn't achieve anything. You need more than anything else organization, but you also need resources. The ultimate test will come when they call out the military. If the military refuses to quell the uprisings then it can be successful. If they hesitate to fire on their own people it can be the impetus to sweep the Mullahs out. If they join the protesters it's over - but then you will probably see a military coup and who knows if that ends up being any better. But Iran's military has more than enough firepower to suppress its population. Between tanks, self-propelled artillery and AFVs it may have as many as 12,000. Yes, they are mostly old and obsolescent, but they aren't going to be facing a Leopard or Abrams. They are likely going to be facing people with blankets and molotovs. Let's hope there's enough social pressure to force the theocracy out. But it seems pretty unlikely the Mullahs are going to go without a lot of blood. Religious fanaticism fairly well necessitates it. They believe they are righteous in the eyes of Allah. On the plus side, I imagine that Iran is going to be too busy with it's own problems to continue to aid the Russians against Ukraine.
Keep in mind that Iran has basically two parallel militaries. There is the IRCG (aka Sepah) along with its plainclothes militia (Basij) who are charged with defending the Islamic Republic. Then there is the regular military (Artesh) who is tasked with defending the country. The Sepah is smaller but much better funded/supplied/equipped/etc. So far they and the Basij have been handling the protests. What happens if the Artesh is needed and called up (do they deploy or stay in their barracks like they mostly did during the Revolution) will be telling.
It would be very hard to see the IRGC do anything other than support the theocracy. That's their role and they are hand picked for the task. The Basij very well could support a revolution, being comprised of the bulk of the population. In theory they have the largest number of troops available, but the worst equipment and only a small percentage of them are mobilized at any one time. The Artesh is really the key IMO. Their standing army is twice as big as the Islamic Republican Guard, and they have significant heavy equipment such as tanks and rocket systems. It wouldn't take much to kick this off to another civil war. I hope that a civil revolution institutes new norms, but if I had to wager right now I'd say this is another popular revolution that is going to fail when the tanks roll. I really hope I'm wrong.