2024 Primary Elections.

Quick reaction:

I would have been skeptical that Biden would be president after 2016. Either Hillary would have won or he would have decided to retire from politics as VP. I think any part of the knock on her that isn't that she is blackity-blackity-black and has a hoo-ha can be worked on. Then again, the lesson of Hillary should be no one should be treated like they are entitled to be the candidate. I think it is a very different race for her if Biden wins vs Trump wins. Either of them is ineligible to run again, but it would be hard to see voters having 3 consecutive Democratic administrations. I think if Trump wins, his second term will be such a disaster that Harris could be a shoo-in as a bridge to the good ol' days of bland normalcy, much like Biden was.

I don't know anything about Andy Beshear other than his name and that he's the governor of a red state. I tend to doubt that he could win his own state in a presidential election, but maybe he could bring it along and others?

I like in the abstract Gretchen Whitmer.

I think that Gavin Newsom is a little too politician-y.

I thought that Josh Shapiro was the D.A. of Philly, but he's really the former state A.G. and now the governor. Good on him. I wonder if anti-Semitism is a bigger obstacle than many other isms at this point.

I think as smart and charming as Pete might be, he's got a ways to go and needs to have some more important post than Transportation Secretary and Mayor before he's a viable candidate for the big chair.

Went to school with Corey Booker, though he probably would have little to no recollection of me. I didn't really know him either, but he seemed nice. I'm very jealous that he was with Rosario Dawson. Don't think that he has a much better shot of being president than I do, but who knows.

Can't see Fetterman as president, but I suppose in the post-Trump era, anything is possible.

I also could see AOC making a run based on not just looks and name recognition but actual policies and the potential ability to mobilize young voters.

"if Trump wins..."

There will be no legit election in 2028. Unless MAYBE if he dies in office, depending on whether his VP is a true-believer Flynn type or a sycophant like Noem. Only a true believer would try to literally end democracy.

Last time I checked Trump left the White House in 2021 like every other president in history.

I just do not agree. I am not saying he won't try to do some shenanigans. However, if he does accomplish them we were never safe from being hijacked away from the constitution by the system created by the constitution. That ends up being more put on the others in charge who would allow such a thing to happen. It does seem the repugs will abandon anything for a fascist abusive fatherly overlord. They seem to have let him take their party when they could have booted him. I just do not think all the american people will just let that happen because Trump stops a ceremony.

The ceremonies are not the actual transfer of power when it comes to operations. He may create some confusion in who actually won, but there is 3 months + to recount and tell who won. If the whole federal government is just going to let it happen that he steals the election, then we are in a civil war because the people have rejected the rule of law.

Last I checked you are a fucking delusional moron, and you still are if this is what you think. Because he did not leave like any other president in US history.

Is Trump still president? I thought Joe Biden was president?

Are you stupid? I thought you could read and understand english?

That's patently untrue.

Trump didn’t leave the White House?

Trump didn't leave the White House like every other president in history.
The Wordforge thread we had at the time was accurate. He left kicking and screaming.

So there’s no reason to believe that he’s not going to leave again if re-elected.

And the Supreme Court is never going to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Ff think she

How many things did he do as President that you didn't believe he would do?

And Joe Biden isn't losing in the polls and the economy is great. Democrats keep saying all of these things are going to happen if Trump wins, but we already saw four years of Trump and he didn't do any of these things. They're accusing him of things they're doing.

Correct, he did leave like every other president in history. However, he left unwillingly, which is the distinction driving the likelihood of him not leaving in 2028 were he to win reelection in November.

Reminder that Biden's losing in the polls because by and large the only people that tend to respond to polls are older and less likely to be Democrat or support Democrats. Our generation, and younger, tend not to answer unknown phone numbers unless we're explicitly expecting them (and even then...). And Biden's supporters tend to be higher amongst Millenials on down, and I'd imagine a good chunk of Gen Xers as well.

That's what Project 2025 and Agenda 47 are for.

The "whole government" that exists in 2028 will be radically different than it is right now...
Or Trump will be dead...
Or the country will have already balkanized and speculating about a presidential election is moot...

If you think that somehow the institutions will stop him, they will have to start doing so immediately in 2025 and they have already been incredibly complacent in the fact of obvious radicalism already. So far we have seen, for example, a media indsutry with no stomach at all for telling their audience what the actual stakes are...a DOJ under a Democrat which can't get off it's dusty ass to meet the moment (consider Lev Parnas' testimony under oath today that he had been trying to get the DOJ to listen to home for FIVE YEARS and they were not interested...a Dem controlled Senate who can't be arsed to have the intelligence committee or the oversite committee to gently ask the question "why did the Crown Prince give Kushner two BILLION dollars within months of Trump's leaving Washington - among MANY other ripe target...SCOTUS deliberately running out the clock for him... the list goes on and on.

NOTHING that's happened in the last three years argues for the idea that the institutions are up to the challenge,

Should we change the name of this thread to General Election, or start a new one?

Anyway, about the dynamics of the actual election:

Here Are the Only Swing Voters You Need to Care About in 2024 – Mother Jones


But this titanic contest is likely to be determined by a tiny slice of the nation’s citizens—3 million or so voters. That’s less than 1 percent of the population. A repeat face-off between presumed nominees Biden and Trump holds potentially huge consequences for the nation. Will the executive branch be controlled by a deceptive demagogue with autocratic impulses who tried to overturn the last election? Will the US take the necessary steps to address the climate crisis? Will America continues to support Ukraine in its battle against Russia? Yet the mathematics of this election are rather simple and small.

Let’s run through the numbers. Since the best predictor of the future is the past, start with the 2020 race.
[SNIP]
All told, there were 30.6 million votes in Swinglandia in the previous presidential election. Add them up and here’s the split: 15.4 million for Biden, 15.2 million for Trump. Tight as a tick. Biden collectively won this bloc 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent. That was much closer than the national tally: 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent for Biden.

These states will probably be where the election, once again, is decided. If Biden is victorious in any four of them, he will win (absent any major surprise elsewhere). If he places first in three, he will have to do so in a combination that yields him at least 41 electoral votes. (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would do the trick for him, with three votes to spare.) If he only bags two of these seven states, he will be out of a job.

Trump needs to win an assortment of four of these states that provide 54 electoral votes (not all combos of four will do that). (You can do the math at home. Here are the states’ electoral votes: Arizona, 11; Georgia, 16; Michigan, 15; Nevada, 6; North Carolina, 16, Pennsylvania, 19; and Wisconsin, 10.)

In one way or another, these 30.6 million Americans hold the key to victory. But most of them are already spoken for—that is, they have made up their minds. This is hardly surprising, given Biden and Trump are known quantities. They’ve both inhabited the White House. They each have offered voters plenty of information and impressions on which to base a vote. Yet polls overall show that about 10 percent of voters are undecided at this point. That would indicate that about 3 million voters in Swinglandia are up for grabs. A slight tipping within this group of voters could determine who lands in the White House.

This is, of course, nuts.
-----------------------------------------------
Billions of dollars are being spent to influence the 2024 election. (Fourteen billion dollars were funneled into the 2020 election.) Yet 3 million folks across seven states will be the main deciders. And we can presume that many of them are on the fence because they are not deeply engaged with the nation’s political debate. Those Americans who intensely or moderately follow politics will likely have a preference in this race between familiar candidates who offer stark differences regarding policy and temperament (though not age). Voters who haven’t yet made up their minds are probably people who don’t interact much with the political realm.

This poses a challenge for the political pros: How do you reach these voters? They are probably not paying close attention to politics via the news media or social media. How do you make contact if you cannot hit them with ads or posts? How do you find the right doors to knock on, the right phone numbers to text or call? Moreover, if they are undecided at this point, after Trump’s four years in office (and his conduct afterward) and Biden’s three years (and his long stints as vice president and senator), it’s a good bet they won’t make up their minds until they must. That means weeks—or days—before the November election. Ads at this point—if they even are seen—might not be effective.

That's just delusional. Putting aside the fact that polling is more scientific than to allow simple weighting errors to invalidate it, the data shows both that young voters are almost evenly split right now and that Trump tends to do better than polling suggests, not worse.

I hope Trump wins the popular vote this time, but not the EC vote. I mean, when Trump lost fair and square he (allegedly) incited an insurrection. Imagine the bitch fit he'd throw if he only lost on a technicality? It would also be hilarious watching people on the right trying to argue that just this once, we should go with the popular vote.

Bonus points if Trump only loses the EC because of faithless electors.

After the Red Wave That Wasn’t in 2022 you’d think that all the major news agencies and the big time pundits would have taken a step back and said how and why did we get that one so wrong?

As some other posters pointed out back then, the Republican machine was flooding the zone with bullshit poll after bullshit poll to prop their team up. So now poll quality, yes poll quality, has become a thing with political aficionados and the “cross tabs” do matter a whole lot. But to hear one Republican pundit I follow tell it, if you’re looking at the cross tabs for answers you’ve already lost.

Same regular thread challenge. For anyone who insists Trump has no chance, any of the places taking bets for the 2024 election will give you good return if Biden wins/Trump loses.

Again, if that is the case, it is what the majority of the people want to happen. Human society tends to react like the functions of a organism. They do not react to do something until there is pain. The systems coast along and progressive action is very hard to achieve without any sort of emergency or threat. That is generally the way of most people since they want someone else to handle the responsibility of organizing and doing community things.

Until people wake up and recognize running the government is a responsibility we all must share, including the complacent lazy who do not want to do anything but vote, then this is how things will operate. There is no solution to the problem because there is no requirement to fix the problem baked into the system. No one is really authorized to do much about any of this, so when you say something needs to get done the only reason for someone to do it is they are required to do it and they are restricted from doing it without the authority of requirement.

Even if someone had a good idea and wanted to take control and do something, people will fight against them because who are they to do something. That means the only people who do anything have enough backing by the greedy forces that be to be able to do anything.

In shorter terms even a @Tuckerfan can understand the system is fucked because the system is designed to be fucked. There is no cure, there is only collapse because the system is designed to operate that way.

How are the people who are not counted because they do not respond counted without guesswork?

The idea that Trump is doing better than polling suggests is based on pure feelings. That does not mean the feelings are wrong, but the people with the feelings are the chicken littles because they get the most attention, and those people tend to pay the most attention to the loudest threat in the room. Maybe the herd is shifting towards Trump, or perhaps the cowardly reactionaries of the press that scream the loudest and get the most attention are in a bubble where they only see the most salient of idiots because they are the loudest and most obnoxious assholes?

Speaking of something closer than 2028

There Are Four Postelection Scenarios, and Not One Is Good | The New Republic

1. Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House.
2. Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Republicans win the House.
3. Trump loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.
4. Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College.

Biden wins the popular vote and Electoral College, and Democrats win the House.

This is the best-case scenario for Democrats, and probably the country, and it looks like a repeat of 2020. Trump and Republicans will allege fraud and rigged elections. They’ll try to block certification at the county, state, and federal levels, resulting in court cases that generally go nowhere. Trump followers will be incited to violence, which is likely to be more successfully put down than January 6, 2021 (which had the element of surprise and a supportive president). Even if the Senate is controlled by Republicans, there are still enough institutionalists who will vote to certify when Congress meets in joint session on January 6, 2025, to certify the results. Minority Leader Mike Johnson may try to stop the incoming Democratic majority from being seated on January 3, but he probably won’t be able to because the Constitution doesn’t allow for him to refuse to do that.

Thus, after chaos that looks a lot like 2020 (only more intense, widespread, and gaining more support from state-level Republicans), Biden gets sworn in on January 20, 2025, to govern a nation where over half the states don’t accept his legitimacy. Red states will flout federal authority at every turn, daring a crackdown, much as Texas has done over Eagle Pass and immigration. The Supreme Court won’t do much to thwart Christian nationalists, who are increasingly calling for “dual sovereignty” and implementation of “a Scripture-based system of government whereby Christ-ordained ‘civil magistrates’ exercise authority over the American public.” Even if the Supreme Court rules against states that resist the federal government, they are likely to dare the Biden administration to actually enforce those rulings. Right-wing violence, like that described by Stephen Marche and Barbara F. Walter, is likely. The result is a United States that is one country in name only.

(That's the best case, the rest are worse)

https://www.threads.net/@keithedwar...QGzgHDwAO1v-CvrhXj2A4dfNKGbr9COtcufJNVlVneoTw

Nobody’s family is going to agree with you on everything.

https://apnews.com/article/oath-kee...dams-montana-e0b46f25dfe319afe29617fd7325eb10

RFK Jr.'s ballot signatures could be invalid in Nevada without VP