AP Poll: Obama takes a 7-point lead over McCain

Obviously, not enough Democrats were sampled.

 

Fortunately, there is Supreme Court precedent to prevent that. I think it was back in the early 1800's, something about a migratory bird treaty (too lazy to wiki it) where SCOTUS determined that a treaty could be made if the Constitution had nothing to say on the subject, but that no treaty that directly contravened the Constitution could be made.

 

Huh. The agreggate at RealClearPolitics has the spread back below 7%.

 

The Liberal Media! poll of the day:

The latest AP Poll has it Obama 44 McCain 42 but you wouldn't know this from reading their "Poll: Voters souring on McCain, Obama stays steady" piece on it because those numbers aren't mentioned ONCE, they're buried in the Full Results PDF.

 

Fuck. This is the shit that kills me. I'm all set to vote Barr. But if I do and Obama wins by like 250 votes and barely wins the electoral college, I will have to figure out how to kick myself in the nuts.

 

[YT="Is this Volpone??"]wwnnr97jmaI[/YT]

 

Vote for Barr. You'll sleep better at night no matter who wins:

If McCain wins, you'll have a clean conscience. If Obama wins, you'll have hastened the revolution.

 

Now, due to advertising carpet-bombing, Obama has widened his 7 point lead to 5.9%.

 

Weird, Gallup daily is swinging more in Obama's favor each day.

 

The RCP Average is 6.9%, but as many of us noted in the other thread, the state by state polls matter quite a bit more.

 

IS THIS THREAD STILL GOING ON?

 

The state polls matter, but not as much as people think. The state numbers are dependent enough on each other that a 6.9% national lead is an effectively guaranteed win. The state polls tend to be smaller sample sizes and conducted less frequently than the national polls. Unless the national polls have the candidates within about two points of each other, the state polls aren't needed to determine who's really ahead.

That said, the state polling does look distinctly better for Obama than does the national polling. fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama with a 40% chance to win the election even when he loses the popular vote (464 wins in 1160 popular vote losses over 10,000 total simulations) and about an 8.5 times greater chance than McCain of both losing the popular vote and winning the election.

 

Me too. That's what it says on the front page, but when you click the link to see the actual data, it says 6.9. If you exclude the outliers (14% and 1%), you get 6.58 or something like that.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Seems to me pretty cut and dried. McCain has to win ALL the toss-up states and also steal Virginia and Colorado (or, mathematically, New Mexico) out of Obama's column.

Since I take it as a rule of thumb that most polls are skewed towards the Dems by about 4-5 points, I think that's doable, but if Virginia comes in for Obama (which I find a 16 point swing towards the Democrats too big to be accounted for by shifting demographics in only 4 years) I'll probably sit back from the edge of my seat for the rest of the night.

 

Even Rasmussen? Rasmussen has Obama up by 10 points in Virginia. They are not a polling agency that is prone to wild swings like many other pollsters, so for them to come up with such a dramatic number means that something is going on in the state. I think McCain's negative campaigning is backfiring on him. That's the only explanation for the dramatic surge for Obama in the state (which had been leaning towards Obama, but nothing like this shift). McCain has overplayed his hand and likely defeated himself in the state, and with that, the Presidency.

 

Well they've got to be. They say Obama's ahead.

 

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703/752/630799

 

Does anyone else notice a little despiration creeping in to our local lefties with these last few polls. I won't hold my breath for a McCain victory....but I think they are starting to feel a little Deja Vu

 

Well, maybe Shep just meant the polls that show Obama up by 13-14 points. You've got to admit that those are probably skewed 4-5 points, or maybe even a point or two more.

 

Including the Gallup Daily, which seems to have jumped almost 5-6 points in Obama's favor overnight.

 

When you see the sampling, it becomes obvious.

Plus, a lot use models every year that reflect anticipated events that don't end up happening (new registration turn out, for instance)

 

The way the media is covering it, we should just forget voting and just appoint obama as king.

 

Yes, that is my thought as well. Virginia should tell us whether it's going to be a big Obama win or another late election night.

 

Jim Webb won a Senate seat in 2006 in Virginia. In 2008 the Republican party was unable to find a serious candidate for Senator and has completely conceded the other Senate seat. Why would you find it questionable that, in a state where the Republicans can't even throw out a real competitor for a statewide U.S. Senate election--and their nominee, despite being a recent former governor, isn't even close to being a serious candidate--and where the African American population is higher than in most states, Obama would be holding a large lead?

 

NOW it is down to a 5.9% lead.

And interestingly enough, everyone is in the single-digits--except Pew Research. They're saying the spread is 15%. If you take them out, Obama's lead is under 4.8%. MoE is anywhere from 2-4%.

 

a. a "recent former governor" is not, by definition, "not a serious candidate"

b. It's well known that when you have either a popular incumbant or a very popular state figure running that some state parties concede the guy won't be beat. It doesn't mean that Mississippi doesn't have a "serious" Democrat that they choose not to challenge Thad Cochran, for instance.

c. Webb won (barely) on the back of a fictitious dirty politics bit of bullshit (with the willing assist of the media) and that is hardly a great example of "turning blue"

 

And Webb isn't exactly an ultraliberal Democrat. He was a Marine officer in Vietnam and was a Reagan staffer. Maybe not a DINO, but he's the sort of Democrat I'd seriously consider voting for.

 

How the hell does Pew Research get 15%?

 

The righties have more bizarre rationalizations than a hobbit has toe hairs...

I think Shep might take issue with your characterizing him as a leftie...