Do we have a decent Brexit thread? No. Well, the fantasies of Tory right-wingers are being disabused as we speak. Contrary to their "£350 million per week extra for the NHS" claims, the British have caved in and apparently will pay a £50 billion exit fee. They've also caved on free movement of EU citizens and are in the process of caving on the Irish border issue. Yesterday was an absolutely farcical day, with agreement apparently being reached, and then Teresa May doing a u-turn at the last minute. This happened because the DUP (northern Irish unionists who are propping her government up) were unhappy with the commitments given regarding a continued alignment of regulation between Northern Ireland and the EU. Word this morning is that some in her own party are also unhappy. So, in conclusion, UKIP and the Tory right might just land us with Jeremy Corbyn as UK Prime Minister and/or something approaching a united Ireland.
A united Ireland... in the EU? indeed! We could accept an independent Scotland next and then just wait for England to come to its senses. As Verne had someone say to the British Ambassador in his Day in the Life futurology, "What remains for the Empire, you ask? Why, Gibraltar, gentlemen!"
Yeah, yesterday was actually funny in a depressing way. May's fucking stupid election is the gift that keeps on giving... Can't say I'm bothered about the £50 billion, we're on the hook for that if we stay in the EU anyway, so it's worth it to get rid of the turbulent autocrats and easy access to the Single Market, and money was always going to be a sticking point - the UK's departure blows a large hole in the EU's finances, and no other EU nation is going find their electorate eager to pick up the slack. The Ireland question has a whiff of EU games, the border question has been asked elsewhere and answered - Sweden/Norway - and offers a basis for a sane compromise without the EU trying a naked land grab. Although if the troubles flared up again in EU controlled territory then I'd point to antics of the French and Spanish in quashing ETA. The reality of a enforced reunification might not be as rosy as the fantasy. Personally I'd be cheered to dump NI these days. I might have had some sympathy for May, but she proved herself spineless when pushed by Hollande - fucking Francois Hollande! - and caved in over Hinckley. So she's probably trying to figure out how to cave into two opposite demands at the same time. I charitably suggest she retire to a room with a good lock, a loaded revolver, a bottle of whisky and a note apologising for being crap. Suspect we're heading towards a No Deal exit, which will trigger a raft of mini-deals so aircraft can keep flying in the relevant airspace and the like. None of the sides seem to be in a mood to compromise sensibly. I'm actually fine with that as, outside of services, we can go to WTO rules. It won't be harmless, but it's not economic suicide either, and it'll give the imbecilic #DespiteBrexit bunch some fresh descriptors for any successes. After around 6 months of reality sinking in to both sides I think we'd see a quick deal. I think it'll take that for both sides to quit the pride and pomposity and recognise a divorce need not be bitter. Politics is supposed to be the art of the possible, in which case I suggest putting the talks up for the Turner Prize. They certainly deserve a place next to a canvas full of elephant shit, although at least Ofili's work looks good.
I will say that it isn't often I commend the Irish government - but they've taken pains to present a united front on this. They have secured the backing of the rest of the EU and of all of the opposition political parties, so there is no-one going off on any tangent. It contrasts very favorably with the UK - where we see the DUP, Tory rebels, Labour, the Scottish and various other special interest groups all wanting different things and pulling in different directions. And an important point here is that the DUP do not represent Northern Ireland. There, the overall vote was to stay in the EU, and there is currently no devolved government since the DUP and Sinn Fein are still playing blame games about it. They're a small minority party in the UK parliament. The idea that they can hold everyone else to ransom is wrong. May should call their bluff and face them down.
Labour are looking to the next election - Corbyn and McDonnell don't give two hoots about the how, for them the important bit is being able to implement their ideology unimpeded by the likes of EU rules - they're not interested in getting behind the government on anything but a Brexit happening. They actively want it to go awry so Saint Jeremy of Corbyn can be wheeled in to fix everything with Magic Socialism. Unified, successful talks may provide a boost to a weak May that can be built upon. Then the ChekaMomentum can re-enact the Red Terrorpolitely ask their opponents to leave. And to be fair, this is how coalitions normally work to an extent - a very junior partner, using what leverage they have to be bothersome, in order to get handed some more sweeties in exchange for agreeing to fuck off. The DUP can't be that mithered over the solution agreed upon by May and the EU, after all a similar set up helps keep the lights on in their offices.
Not clear what you're referring to as a similar setup. How can they not be miffed? The prospect is that Northern Ireland will be forced to shadow the laws and regulations of the Republic of Ireland while the rest of the UK goes off in another direction. That's contrary to their very raison d'être. EDIT: Although unconfirmed rumour is that Foster was kept informed during the talks and was okay with things. Problems only occurred when the rest of her gang got wind of the detail. Meaning that the future of the UK and Europe are presently in the hands of Sammy Wilson.
Northern Ireland and the Republic share a single electricity market, so they have former for tolerating unity with the ROI when practical. I'm not sure the UK rules will diverge from the EU that much as we'll still be major trading partners, and it's not like we don't manage with slightly different legal systems in the UK already (Scotland and NI), it could easily be spun as making NI vital to the Union by having it as the vital spur in the EU or somesuch. And as you said, NI voted Remain overall, so would have left the DUP being able to say they delivered Brexit into Leave ears, and to say they practically kept the NI inside the EU into Remain ears. Real cake and eat it scenario.
I'm curious what happens to May now - if she suggested, as is reported, that the whole UK would align its rules with the EU, I'm not sure who is dumber - May, for offering, or the EU for believing it'd be possible in the long term. Of course the EU may have seen a chance to indulge in its favourite sport of can kicking. Make a deal now, make another one when that one falls apart a couple of years down the line. And so on. Why have a resolution when you can keep playing? In May's case, that's going to be seen as a rank betrayal. Between her own party and the Murdoch press, she's going to face a battle to hang on and will find few allies anywhere. Politically, given all the talk that no one wants to back down on, it's starting to look a little like the standoff at the end of Reservoir Dogs.
Sure it could. I mean, this could be very beneficial and you could have the entire City of London relocating to Belfast. But they're stupid, can't resist a row and are so tunnel-visioned and paranoid about "the union" that anything else is irrelevant to them.
I honestly expect no deal, which is what the EU wants in order to punish the UK, but on the upside without a deal the EU does not get any cash. Let them suffer through big cuts, demands for more cash from remaining members, and then see how popular the autocrats are.
I wouldn't be too happy if I were you as Ireland will actually have worse job loses than the UK (as a percentage of total employment) because so much of its exports are sold in the UK market. In short, no, you won't get reunification but the grandstanding by certain politicians is going to harm your economy worse than the UK gets harmed.
So how many promises of the Brexiters have to be broken before the people and/or parliament get another say? Or is it like African Democracy: One Man, One Vote, One Time? In Washington (state) it is two years that a law put in place by an Initiative to the People or repealed by a Referendum to the People must stand as is. After that the leg can modify it. Which seems reasonable. Why should one electorate at one time get to make a decision that is forever binding?
This is nothing more than the EU refusing to make a deal. Fine, no deal and move on. No promises broken.
Any deal has to treat all of the UK equally and, no, no deal has been made. If Ireland uses its veto then it will be the big loser because then the UK will simply say "Well, we tried but they were unreasonable" and then 2.5% of all the people employed in Ireland will probably lose their job. No deal literally hits Ireland worse than any other nation; worse then the UK itself.
https://www.economist.com/news/euro...ries-wants-be-kind-britain-ireland-may-suffer Your government is grandstanding and it is going to bite them in the ass when the UK simply say "no deal".
Precisely the same number as if the result had gone the other way, then someone went and invented a what-if machine and showed that all the proclamations of impending doom were shown to be the lies that they proved to be. So, y'know, none. Of course the ideal would be that there wouldn't be any lies at all, but we all know that isn't how politics work.
No, it's a sign the EU wants a deal, they just want it on their terms and for the UK to act like it's in the EU as much as possible whilst remaining out. It's a like a divorce where you pretend to stay together for the kids, unable to properly move on with new relationships, but instead resorting to furtive fly-by-nights. ROI has played its hand, the EU has supported it, May tried to fold and the DUP stuck a gun to her head before she could. I have to admit I'm genuinely flummoxed by what is going to end up happening. I still suspect a No Deal, but it's plain that May under pressure to accept some form of deal no matter how bad from some elements in her party, and other elements view any deal as a bad deal. It's curious to see how the EU will respond to the DUP's roadblock, if they're that inclined to wanting a deal, are they willing to throw ROI under a bus? If not, can they strong-arm May? One day this will make a great satirical movie. I suggest Pee-Wee Herman in a wig for Theresa May.
So to summarise. Your view is that "no deal" will hurt Ireland badly - yet they are refusing to make one despite having the actual text of one that they are pretending was agreed.
Dave Davies just confirmed the government have not conducted a single economic impact assesment on Brexit. If you know anything about economic impact assesments and the UK envoronment you know that this admission is mind blowing!
Yeah, that doesn't look good. I mean economic models are a load of bollocks, but as fictions go they're comfortable and expected ones that show some thought is being put into things.
Thing is, we need to have economic impact assesments for pretty much any kind of public spend on infrastructure. The gov generally dont let you just piss money up a wall. Evem though thats what seems to happen. This however looks to be a complete cluster fuck driven by politicians who have no understanding of process and are just trying to ram a solution through. The whole thing is nonsense. While i accept there are plenty people who wanted brexit for various reasons, some of these folks have enouhg sense and thought it all through (e.g you). And thats fine. I accept differing opinions and the democratic process. May however has a duty not to damage the country. She and the rest of the cabinet really should lay out the implications of Brexit (if they know them) and let the country see what we are about to get into. No one got that in June 16. If we know it now, lay the facts out. Daily Mail readers are already in uproar that we cant have a European City of culture, just wait until they find they have to stand in the long queue at the airport when they go to Benidorm.
We've not had a generation of politicians with experience of life without the EU safety blanket since the mid-90's, and a civil service actively hostile to Brexit, so I guess this one of those things we should've seen coming. The Sir Humphrey's have little desire to toss in a floatation device if a Minister finds the water too deep, and the Ministers are entirely unprepared for this as the expectation was the nation Would See Sense and listen to all portents of doom being emitted by such trustworthy souls as, ahem, George Osborne. This is the problem, we have no idea of the implications until a deal is reached. There should be a spectrum of scenarios with the implications attached, but the battles between Remainers trying their different flavours of leaving to minimise Brexit at all costs, and the Leavers pushing their different flavours at any cost means no one has actually done anything. They've been too busy squabbling amongst themselves. Parliament should've been a war footing with an aim to get the best deal, instead it's been on a civil war footing. Customs, for example. If we can maintain a roughly similar set-up to now, happy days, if not there needs to be a pile of new staff and the software either updating, or we stop being dicks and bring in the software most other places use which can actually handle trade deals without the expensive, time-consuming IT fuck up we'll get when the software is updated. Oh, I'm going to enjoy those. My next few holidays in Europe will off the beaten track...
Until you know what the post Brexit deals or dynamics really are I doubt that is even possible to do. Any numbers someone comes up with will all be guess work and subject to claims that they are unrealistic or politically motivated.
yea, still surprised this didn't work out like farage said it would. or boris still says it will. i do object to the word 'exit fee' though. it's not. it's what has been agreed upon years ago in common projects (or at least part of it). it's nor s9me arbitraty sum the EU forces out of poor old UK. i can only see two sane ways out of this. a. take it back. changed circumstances, ask again. 2/3rds like in any other civilized country but legally binding this time. b. a swiss/norwegian model. everything else equals total damage.
Seriously. You might as well interview the Blood Cult of Kal'Mokra for all the sense you'd get out of them either. I don't even let my dog shit on the Daily Mail in case he catches something. And he's kind of their target demographic - completely white, fairly daft and barks at strangers. Also fond of ideas from millions of years ago.
If someone is going to say something is happening at X then they jave to atleast looked at X or else they are talking out of their ass. I go out of my way to seek out as many diverse view points as possible. You should try it some time instead of staying in an echo chamber.
Who cares? It wasn't legally spelled out in the exit terms of treaty and if we are going to divy up debts then we also have to divy up assets which the EU has steadfastly refused to do. This whole process has been nothing but a dishonest scam from the beginning.
