Welcome to my world. Certainly wanted the message 'reverse Obama garbage, good God,' but horrified when it took the form of an exaggerating crude blowhard. I wish you guys luck with Corbyn. You'll forgive me some smirking if/when you descend there. I pray you won't, I'm anglophile.
My best guess would be we'd see the Tories scrape the confidence vote but get rid of May. If I had to place a bet Amber Rudd wouldn't be an unlikely replacement.
No it isn't. Apart from anything else, you do realise (wait, of course you don't) that it is entirely the intention to arrange a free trade deal but that that will take some time after the withdrawal?
I think that was a foregone conclusion really, the DUP were never going to cut themselves off from the only ticket to real power they've ever had and no amount of internal differences were going to convince many tory dissenters to knowingly risk a labour landslide. As it stands I'm in the unique position right now of preferring a toothless conservative cabinet than a capable labour one anyway given Corbyns longstanding history of euroscepticism. The real fear is May either resigns herself to a no deal or steps down and we get a hardliner like Rees Mogg. Hopefully the shifting opinion polls might lead to an ideological shift in favour of accommodation or (please! please! please!) a second referendum
I'd hoped that the votes over the last couple of days would have produced some sort of shift. But things are still drifting.
Why would they? May is thick as pigshit, and still thinks if she keeps dawdling Parliament will have no other option than to take the deal. That's the reason why she won't take no deal off the table, not because keeping it is sensible dealing, but so she can use it as a stick. We have reached a point where May put through a vote she knew she wouldn't win, followed by Corbyn doing the same. Pure theatrics, although at least May isn't really pretending otherwise - watching Corbyn act all pious makes me hope he has a cycling incident with an HGV. Corbyn has no interest in taking a lead, power is of little interest to him - his entire career has been to rage against power, having to wield it would force him out of his 70's angry student miasma. So all he'll ever do is frustrate, and keep trotting out his version of Brexit - the one the EU has repeatedly said will not happen, and I believe them on that as it would undermine the entire EU - in the knowledge he can take a leaf out of the Lib Dem book and promise unicorns in the knowledge it is incredibly unlikely he'll ever have to deliver on said promises. Give it a week and Parliament will have little choice but to take the reins, sidelining May and probably Corbyn. We've precious few adults in Parliament, years of managerial politics has left us with a hollow shell of people more appropriate for selling door-to-door insurance or used cars, but what few there are will try and take over, and likely succeed with Bercow's compliance. Problem there is a remain majority of them, so we can expect either a really soft Brexit or it being cancelled. And I'm really not sure what'll happen there. Maybe you'll just get simmering resentment that sees an uptick in the far right and far left, like across Europe, or maybe it'll be open season on MPs and prominent remainers. Either way, not good, and the remainers may wish to read up on pyrrhic victories. I think the next decade or so will get pretty ugly socially if remain wins the day. Right now I'd say it's 50/50 between no deal and no Brexit.
Problem is she won't be sidelined easily, IIRC she can't be removed from within her own party for another ten months or since the last "no confidence" vote. Whatever approach is taken will therefore be a question of undermining rather than eliminating, which is pretty much what's been happening all along anyway.
Oh she will. Bercow has already shown he's prepared to discard advice to change Parliamentary rules, and that is what is likely to happen. Enough backbenchers will simply remove the Government's control over the process, the plan was done a week or so back, it's when it gets implemented and how to manage the outfall - it isn't going to be a step anyone wants to take. If nothing material changes soon, she's going to be a PM with no power to influence the main order of business. And the daft cunt will still hang on. It'd be impressive if she was running a marathon, running a country it's just pathetic to watch.
Seems like you might be right about this. Said "adults" are going to automatically trigger a request to delay article 50 if something isn't in place. I love that the government is screaming blue murder about this while their idea is simply to try to ask Europe again for concessions. Obviously there's limited chance of her losing a confidence vote in parliament, but as a matter of practically when does being this powerless lead to a general election? One imagines that maybe if there a large number of resignations from the cabinet - what if Hammond (who clearly isn't happy about no deal) and a couple of other senior figures walked?
You don't think it will get socially ugly if we march straight into a catastrophic no-deal brexit and the realities start hitting home? I don't fancy being those border force workers in Benidorm in the summer when the flip flops and football tops brigade can't get through passport control without a 4 hour wait.....
Do me a favour, I'm genuinely not sure how to read this post. Given how thoughtful and insightful you've seemed in my short time here I'm rather hoping you aren't downplaying the significance of a car bomb in Northern Ireland? It won't stop there
EU has far more to lose from this. This would be a significant shortfall in their funding if it should come to pass, so you'll both suffer if it makes you feel any better, though the UK will probably fair a lot better than you seem to think it will. Point being that there is incentive to come to some kind of a deal that doesn't involve the UK becoming some kind of serf state that continues to send funding to the EU, must obey every law and regulation the EU passes, but gets no say in any part of that process. But, hey, having to stand in line to go to a football game, amirite?
Tonight Parliament voted against a no-deal Brexit and against giving itself the powers to stop a no-deal Brexit. They also voted to renegotiate the backstop, something they've been told endlessly by the EU isn't going to happen. That's all clear then.
Looks like either No Deal Brexit or Renegotiate. The EU should think about which one it would truly prefer.
"Renegotiate" is a senseless word unless someone proposes a different deal. So far, the UK has failed to come up with a deal that the UK itself finds acceptable.
You're not wrong. But it may be that those who are against Brexit are trying to prevent a deal from happening in the hopes of undoing Brexit (i.e., make Brexit so painful that it will be reconsidered). Instead, they may wind up with the scenario of a no-deal Brexit.
Apparently the new "deal", ahem plan, er proposal thingy which Juncker has already clearly stated won't even be discussed by the EU takes into account the desire to avoid "no deal", just not in a legally binding way. So that's hunky dory then. As a solid remainer I agree there's an element of hoping the scale of the imminent catastrophe encourages the possibility of a second referendum, but I wouldn't go so far as saying there's an intent there. Frankly most of us would rather this had simply never come about in the first instance....
