Israel is Coming Apart at the Seams, It Seems

Was that the one where Hamas still wanted a seat at the table in Gaza afterwards? There was no way that could be accepted.

They also wanted the pick of the prisoners, which give then architect of the current war was exchanged in a previous hostage swap wasn't going to be met with anything other than cynicism.

Aim is for a long term peace, not Gaza getting flattened and Palestinians killed in their thousands every time Hamas gets an itch for mass murder.

Yes, that's the one. I'm not defending Hamas or their strategy - which is heedless to the needs of their own people, to put it mildly. Just highlighting that rescue or wellbeing of the hostages is clearly not the main priority of the Israeli government or the only thing required for this to end.

Unfortunately the prospect of a "long term peace" is dim. It's increasingly unclear how we get from here to there.

I'm a bit more optimistic, Netanyahu and his orthodox buddies are going to be shown the door, and I suspect the majority of Palestinians don't want a re-play of the last four months anytime soon.

Key is going to be getting the Palestinians accepting less agency in the short term in exchange for their own state, Israel dragging the West Bank settlers back to Israel voluntarily or in body bags, and re-accepting Palestinian workers - the West Bank's economy has been battered by the war. I say less agency, as both Hamas and the PA have overseen schools perpetuating Jew hatred and celebrating suicide bombers, there needs to be a grassroots Palestinian politics that better reflects Palestinian views rather than Tehran's.

He's in a bad place': Expert says Netanyahu 'emotionally shattered' by war.



Not nearly as bad of a place as this piece of shit deserves to be in.

You sound upset. Have you considered setting yourself on fire outside the closest Israeli embassy?

I don't possess the kind of courage necessary for something like that unfortunately.

I will say though, the fact that there are far more documented instances of IDF soldiers posing for photos with Palestinian women's lingerie than there are instances of IDF soldiers rescuing hostages is infuriating to say the least.

I said months ago that even if someone 100% supported "a free Palestine" they should still oppose the Hamas attacks because they did fuck all to make Palestine any more free. In the same vein, even if someone 100% supports "protecting Israel" or "destroying Hamas" or "bringing the hostages home alive," it's getting harder to defend what the IDF is doing in Gaza when they seem to be accomplishing fuck all towards any of those goals.

Hang on ...

I nay not share @RickDeckard's views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but surely we (with the possible exception of our resident Trump apologists) can all agree that Netanyahu is a piece of shit.

Hamas did Bibi a favor initially on October 7th because just prior to that attack he was rightfully being criticized over his actions dealing with the courts. I don’t remember the exact details, but I remember hearing about it and thinking it was fucked up so if your remarks were aimed at me, which I believe they were, you’ll get no argument from me about Bibi being a piece of shit in that regard. But for now, Israel probably needs a guy like him and not some tree huger. As a wise man once said, “you know it’s sad, but true.”

No, they need an actual statesman who doesn't need to remora on to the far right and ultra-orthodox crowd to maintain power and avoid going to court.

He risked Israel's security on getting their political landscape changed to avoid justice, and whilst he's not to blame for the attacks, he does have responsibility for Isreal being so unprepared, and is currently responsible for risking Israel's international relations, again, so he can hold on to power hoping he can somehow no longer have the majority of the electorate loathe him on a subatomic level by 2026.

The Israeli security and intelligence services have come to hate him with a passion, and who I think have a better perception of the kind of person Israel currently needs than you do.

There are numerous children in northern Gaza who have now died of starvation due to a deliberate Israeli policy of blocking aid from getting to them. People there are living off of animal feed and weeds. There are thousands more who will die, probably regardless of whether restrictions are lifted, given the state that their health currently is in.

This isn't just "sad". It is a crime of immense proportions. Every one of them has as much right to a life as you or I.

So fuck all the way off.

There's already enough talk from right-wing sources about what Trump plans to do to American Muslims if he gets re-elected that there's a huge and obvious distinction between the "lesser evil" (such a dumb phrase) of Biden and the genuine evil of Trump.

But even then, Netanyahu is a piece of shit and he knows the only thing keeping him in power and out of jail right now is this military campaign. How many other world leaders have made the most basic, reasonable statements only for Netanyahu to tell them to fuck off? How hard do you think Biden can really push Netanyahu at this point? You mentioned Reagan once threatening to cut off aid, but that's only a proper threat if Biden is still president next year.

Anyway, how many neo-Nazi administrations would you let run Ireland for the sake of "fixing the system" or "holding the left accountable?"

*I responded to this in the Israel thread because it's stupid to have this derailment in the "Trump is a dirty criminal" thread.

Most of this is predicated on your view that Biden is not really doing anything fundamentally wrong in this arena. So our conclusions are unlikely to align.
I put it to you that were you to accept that the guy is literally committing genocide, you might change your opinion.

There is still almost a year until the next Presidential term. American cash, weapons and diplomacy are decisive here. The idea that he has no leverage or is unable to exert it is absurd.
As for Trump, he hasn't got good form but his main quality is unpredictability. He's unlikely to allow Netanyahu to publically defy him as he has done Biden. And he's not really interested in empire-building in the same way that Biden is. So it's difficult to know if he'd be worse on this.

To be clear, Trump should be in prison and there is no way anyone should vote for him either. But if Joe Biden brings about another Trump presidency by torching his own reputation, then that's on him and his colleagues. Not on the people who won't vote for a genocidaire.

Oh, and just as I type - another news alert - dozens massacred by the IDF in northern Gaza while waiting for aid. So it goes.

Whilst a second Trump term will doubtlessly be a domestic disaster for the US, on the international stage it will be the reverse. As Rick says, his chaos makes people unsure as to what they can get away with - whereas with Biden, someone who instinctively wants to take the heat out of a situation and part of an Obama administration whose red lines were neither ruddy nor linear, you know you can go down the "frogboiler" route.

We'll probably roll into the 2028 election with four years of world peace, the US splintered into two, and Alaska sold back to Russia for lunar beachfront property and golfing rights to the whole of Russia for the newly created Trumpski Corp.

Of course that "peace" would just be a temporary consequence of Trump's glittering personality until someone more predictable gets into the White House, rather than an actual, valuable, peace that the orange buffoon had actively worked on.

Ha! Just realized 'RICK' could be the backronym of the current "axis of evil" - Russia, Iran, China and (north) Korea!

Sorry @RickDeckard , could not resist when it came to me!

Busted!

Oh fuck, I knew it. Oh well, not the first time I have ended up working for the evil empire.

I'm moving this to the more appropriate thread as well.

Firstly, a correction. Biden and his administration is not just "standing idle". They are direct participants in literal genocide. Those are weasel words designed to minimise their actions, and if you were sure of your lesser evil argument, you wouldn't need to do that.

Secondly, if you follow the conversation, a third alternative is not required. The argument being made is that at some point, both candidates are so bad that participating in a choice between them is abhorrent. The Himmler-Hitler analogy is obviously not perfect (so don't Godwin me!) but I doubt you'd participate in that choice between them on the grounds that one has a marginally less cruel approach to the Holocaust. So maybe that point has not been reached for you - but clearly it exists in principle and it has been reached for others.

Can't speak for 14th Doctor, but one does not need to have the view that Biden is not doing anything wrong here. One can have the view that Biden is doing something wrong, but that the wrong doesn't rise to the level of evil. Or one can even have the view that Biden is doing evil, but it is still less than Trump's evil. And if Biden's Israel policy is the main thing that causes him to fall in the evil category, it should be noted that Trump almost certainly would take the same approach or worse through a combination of wanting to retain Israel supporters, retain evangelical Christians, wanting to get the praise of Netanyahu, general incompetence in foreign policy.

I think that Trump would be a bigger disaster internationally than domestically in the short term. Thankfully, there are still some limits to what the president can do domestically. He is going to be bound at least somewhat by Democrats in Congress, by military officials who are not going to bend to his will, and career members of the civil service. There's also at least some chance that he is too incompetent, disorganized or indifferent to actually follow through on some domestic issues. Make no mistake: I do think things will get pretty bad in a Trump second term domestically and that there will be forms of long-term harm from it (stacking the judiciary with more people of questionable competence, purging people who don't toe his line, etc.), but I think it is plausible that Trump either will be checked or will lose interest in anything larger than staying out of jail and figuring out new grifts.

However, bad actors internationally know that they can get away with all manner of bullshit if they basically play to his ego. Trump doesn't seem to understand anything about foreign affairs or America's role. He's certainly willing to pull back from places where America has a vested interest in helping, and a willingness o pull back from commitments made just because they were made by Obama, which will presumably extend to Biden. I think it's likely in a Trump second term we stop aid to Ukraine altogether. I think it would be likely in a Trump second term that the U.S. supports Israel in whatever it wants to do even more.

https://www.vox.com/policy/24072983/biden-trump-palestinians-israel-gaza-policy-different

I still do not get why people think Trump is going to support Isreal this time around? He does not need them anymore, and there is more money to be gotten by going with the oil producing countries in the area.

Yes, Trump says he is pro-Isreal for the votes, but I do not see that being anything but a statement he thinks will get him votes. Once the election is done he is going to expect a huge payout from Isreal for his support. There is going to be a bidding war for america's participation. He might just sell lots of weapons to everyone and stay out of it.

On the other side weakling Joe is really in trouble and needs to do something to shore up the anti-genocide people. I am thinking either way Isreal's days of living off of america's teet are over. The only way aid for Isreal continues is if Biden hands it to them and then wins the election. That is a huge toss up.

Trump will not need Israel for votes assuming he is re-elected. But Trump's motivating forces are pretty straightforward: money, power and praise. Netanyahu will butter him up, as happened during his first term, and Trump will roll over like a dog getting its belly scratched in that sweet spot. Trump will also use his support of Israel to fundraise off of evangelical Christians who see a strong and united Israel as a necessary precedent to the Second Coming.

Awfully bold of you to assume there would even be an election in 2028 after another Trump term

But you and Rick are right: Trump does what he damn well pleases and no one can predict a damn thing out of him. I don't think his push to put our embassy in Jerusalem means anything promising about his support of Bibi, but if he tries talking shit, Trump probably won't hesitate to hit him back.

Yep, all of this

He dare not ever leave the presidency for his shit-quaking fear of going to jail.

We could always send him to jail BEFORE the election!

Could have been Rwanda, Indonesia, Chile, and Kenya...

And I repeat, If Gaza is a wash (and it's not because Trump indeed would be worse, but for the sake of argument) then you base your choice on everything else they would do/not do.

The presidents job encompasses WAY more than deciding what to do about Israeli fascists.

"I still do not get why people think Trump is going to support Isreal this time around?"

Transactional. Has to keep the Christianist zealots happy.

Playing to his ego is the thing though, Trump is a thin-skinned narcissist who like to be perceived to be in control, offend him, and you need to apologize, bend the knee and kiss the ring. Go against him and he'll rail and rally at you.

And whilst he'd no doubt give Netanyahu his blessing to do whatever he liked, other flashpoints are likely to quieten down, I can't see the Houthis, or any of the Iranian proxies, being as active with Trump about as they don't know what will trigger an overwhelming response.

Known quantities you can take close to the edge, more chaotic agents you don't know where that edge is. When Putin said he favoured Biden, he may have been playing a little, but not by much. Biden is someone Putin can deal with, Trump not so much. Sure, you've got all the claims of kompromat, but honestly, look at the Stormy Daniels case - Trump can brazen anything you throw at him. You could have live action video of him bumming babies at Camp Epstein, and he'd just play it at a rally and tell everyone how sad it is that that his opponents have to deepfake such things... He's not a man with a concept of shame. Some language must have a word for it, a concept adjacent to 'admirable', but with absolutely no positive connotations or approval whatsoever. He's whatever that is.

That, in over three years, he isn't already in jail and barred from running is insane.

Closest thing to a real life Joker imaginable, and he's not only been given the Presidency once, but has every chance of getting it again after an intertrumpnum where he's just gotten more nuts. Where are the Zombie Founding Fathers when you need them?