Political Oddsmakers: McCain's VP Choice

Discussion in 'The Red Room' started by Whizzer, Apr 20, 2008.

  1. Whizzer

    Whizzer Fresh Meat

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  2. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    The only one there that adds significantly to the ticket is Condi. Tom Ridge and Mitt Romney have significant negatives, and the rest simply aren't national figures.

    Pawlenty would appeal to the Republic base, so I can see why he'd be considered. But he's too closely aligned with McCain - he's his campaign chairman.

    Well, we'll see. I've been surprised about these things before.
  3. Whizzer

    Whizzer Fresh Meat

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    I agree. But don't you feel Condi's close association with Bush makes her less electable and detracts from the ticket's electablility?

    What negatives does Romney bring? I thought he was the superior candidate for the GOP nomination, and the Presidency overall.
  4. marathon

    marathon Calm Down, Europe...

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    Romney isn't a Republican, he only played one on TV.

    As for Rice, her most interesting comments of 2008 were those in which she expanded on the race topic Obama had just addressed...her "birth defect" remarks. They were just as insightful as his.
  5. Scott Hamilton Robert E Ron Paul Lee

    Scott Hamilton Robert E Ron Paul Lee Straight Awesome

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    Pawlenty would be the best choice, imo. He is a competant, young man who has done a great job leading MN.
  6. evenflow

    evenflow Lofty Administrator

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    I propose that Romney only exists on TV.

    I've yet to see anyone disprove this assertion. :borg:
  7. marathon

    marathon Calm Down, Europe...

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    He's probably the only real way McCain has a chance at Minnesota. Unlike nearby Iowa and Wisconsin, where McCain beats Clinton handily (not Obama though - he handily defeats McCain in all three), both Democrats still win here in polls even as their civil war of pettiness rages.
  8. Aurora

    Aurora VincerĂ²!

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    Ridge and Rice are too close to Bush for comfort. Unless W makes an epic comeback and single handedly saves the world from a falling asteroid I simply can't see McCain to be stupid enough to connect himself to them. It's just not good business these days, and he's close enough to the ideology anyway.
  9. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Personally, no, though I understand that's the theory. The demographics help a bit though - people who want to see a black president will of course vote for Obama, but there are a few undecided that won't vote just along race though consider it that will get behind Rice as an actually qualified minority that would be in perfect position for a future run.

    Again, I agree, he was my horse. But he's got religion problems with the base, and personality problems. He'd make a good VP, but the whole 'Mormons are a cult' thing would be a negative. Unfortunate, but true.
  10. Liet

    Liet Dr. of Horribleness, Ph.D.

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    Rice is a non-starter. She's not a politician, nor has she shown any inclination to become a politician or, regardless of what you think of her policy skills, any particular political skill. She's also, in any event and as has been noted above, too closely tied to the Bush administration for McCain to choose her. Rice as VP is a media storyline because it fits into all kinds of narratives that the press likes to tell, but it's not rooted even the least bit in reality.

    Romney is the most likely choice, mostly because choosing a VP where people aren't going to start asking questions about whether the VP is truly qualified to be president is a way to neutralize McCain's age as a campaign issue, and if McCain decides that that's the most important factor in choosing a VP then Romney's the obvious choice. I wouldn't call Romney anywhere near odds on, but he's the only possible running mate where there's an obviously possible scenario that dictates his choice. I'd say Romney's 20-25%, the other top names, excluding Rice, being bandied about seriously are perhaps 5-10%, and the field is much more likely than 40-1 at this point, more like 40%.
  11. marathon

    marathon Calm Down, Europe...

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    Much like the nightmare ticket.
  12. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Of course it's her decision.

    However, we've often had non-politicians win the presidential seat, from Washington to Eisenhower.

    And at least she has experience in the executive branch, something that none of the current candidates, not even Hilary Clinton, can actually claim.

    From the sound of it she doesn't want the position, but I don't think she'd be the kiss of death if she was chosen.
  13. Elwood

    Elwood I know what I'm about, son.

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    I am pleased to announce that the McCain campaign has contacted me and and asked that I serve as his running mate. He wants to bring a real freedom lover to the ticket.

    In other news, I'll be asking Clinton Inc's barber to give Senator McCain a nice and close shave for his big speech at the Convention. :bergman:
  14. Liet

    Liet Dr. of Horribleness, Ph.D.

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    General Rice?

    She's not a politician, she's not a victorious war hero, she's never indicated that she wants to become a politician, and she's specifically indicated that she doesn't want to be VP. Even excluding considerations of race and sex she'd be monumentally unprecedented as a VP choice, and that doesn't even consider her close ties to the Bush administration which would hurt McCain far more than anything else about her could help his campaign. McCain will try his damndest to make this election not a referendum on Bush, and Rice is the single most loyal of all the Bushies in the administration and is identified pretty much exclusively with the Bush Administration in the minds of the public.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Nope. Secretary of State Rice. It's an inherently political position.

    Such as Secretary of State Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanon could attest. :)

    What's relevant is to this point she says she doesn't want the job.

    I certainly think the left hates anything associated with Bush. I tend to think the center would say that in a flawed administration, Condi Rice was one of the better things to come out of it.

    The right likes Condi a lot, and of course loyalty there is a considerable bonus.

    Here's an article that spells out the pluses, from Common Dreams of all places:

    http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/02/14/7059/

    Now, I don't think it's going to happen, but as I said earlier, if it somehow did, it wouldn't spell the deathknell for the McCain campaign.

    Rice makes Obama look pretty ineffectual. That would be to the Republican's advantage, even if her ties to Bush means she's not the ideal candidate.
  16. Volpone

    Volpone Zombie Hunter

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    :lol: Fuck that. Minnesota is DFL country. The Democrats could run Adolph Hitler's rotting corpse and still carry Minnesota.

    That said, I've mentioned somewhere, that if I were McCain, I'd sit tight on this one. I'd have a VP picked for if Hillary gets the ticket and another one, tailor-made for Obama. Maybe more if there was a chance to find out what running mates they'd go with. Then I'd sit tight until the Democratic candidate was announced. On the day that happened, I'd announce my running mate. That way, on a day that should be all about the Dems, you nicely steal their thunder: "Today, the Democrats picked their candidate for President, ... and in other news, John McCain announced his running mate..." You get the best ticket to run against the Dems and you get to steal any momentum their announcement might give.

    Of course I have no idea who I'd pick if Hillary or Obama clinches the Dem spot... :unsure:
  17. Xerafin

    Xerafin Unmoderated & off-center

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    McCain should pick someone older than himself, so that he seems young by comparison...is zombie Lincoln available? :lol:
    • Agree Agree x 1
  18. We Are Borg

    We Are Borg Republican Democrat

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    Whatever happened to Giuliani? :unsure:
  19. Paladin

    Paladin Overjoyed Man of Liberty

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    Romney would give the ticket a little youth appeal, but will he be any real help in pulling votes in NE away from the Democrats? Guiliani, while a solid candidate in his own right, brings nothing to placate Southerners or conservatives. Rice and Ridge are "tainted," and might do more harm than good.

    I think McCain's ideal running mate would be a Southerner, youngish (50 or so), with solid conservative credentials, and an executive track record (a governor). Sanford or Crist, methinks.
  20. Bulldog

    Bulldog Only Pawn in Game of Life

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    I have a better idea- someone else than McCain for the top of the ticket. :tasvir:
  21. Liet

    Liet Dr. of Horribleness, Ph.D.

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    He was always planning on losing all those early primaries. Expect a monumental comeback after Pennsylvania. :bergman:
  22. brudder1967

    brudder1967 this is who we are

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    Knowing McCain, he will pick a democrat as his V.P. candidate.

    :lol:
  23. Liet

    Liet Dr. of Horribleness, Ph.D.

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    Nah, though he may well pick Lieberman. Lieberman has stopped being a Democratic war hawk and has gone full blown Republican--he was, for example, part of the recent Obama-is-a-marxist bullshit, and he's been on the road campaigning for McCain. Lieberman's a really funny case. Lieberman was a mostly liberal Democrat who was a war hawk but who otherwise had almost nothing in common with the Republican party, but the whole Lamont episode really embittered him and he's been doing his best Zell Miller imitation ever since.
  24. KIRK1ADM

    KIRK1ADM Bored Being

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    brudder1967..
    Nobody would notice a difference. ;)
  25. Zombie

    Zombie dead and loving it

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    McCain needs to pick Condi! I demand that he help Obama win by picking her.

    Right now Obama is screwing up and my plans to vote for him in the general election will be for naught! :ua:

    McCain can not win. I don't care how bad Obama fucks up this country in four or eight years but I need him to win so we can be pushed further to the edge and either break up as a country or the more likely scenario: revolution.

    You libs on this board better start working out because we will be riding you like ponies very soon. :bergman:

    :ramen:
  26. Dr. Drake Ramoray

    Dr. Drake Ramoray 1 minute, 42.1 seconds baby!

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    C'mon people, it's a total no-brainer. J.C.Watts!
  27. Volpone

    Volpone Zombie Hunter

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    Oooh... Actually, it WOULD be interesting if McCain would run with Lieberman. :Oooo:
  28. Demiurge

    Demiurge Goodbye and Hello, as always.

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    Yeah, it would certainly paint him as more centrist than Obama, though it would piss off the Republican base.

    I'm for it, though I'm not sure we'll see it.
  29. Dr. Drake Ramoray

    Dr. Drake Ramoray 1 minute, 42.1 seconds baby!

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    That would make for train-wrecks all around, wouldn't it? :rofl: