It's Good News Friday! (CLIMATE CHANGE)

Tuckerfan · Aug 20, 2023

California had a minor quake.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...in-l-a-as-tropical-storm-hilary-hits-aceaeda6

One state has wildfires, a tropical storm, and earthquakes all at once. It’s like something out of one of those shitty disaster movies.

Steal Your Face · Aug 20, 2023

Tuckerfan said: ↑

California had a minor quake.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...in-l-a-as-tropical-storm-hilary-hits-aceaeda6

One state has wildfires, a tropical storm, and earthquakes all at once. It’s like something out of one of those shitty disaster movies.
Click to expand...

How does climate change affect earthquakes?

Tuckerfan · Aug 20, 2023

Steal Your Face said: ↑

Tuckerfan said: ↑

California had a minor quake.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...in-l-a-as-tropical-storm-hilary-hits-aceaeda6

One state has wildfires, a tropical storm, and earthquakes all at once. It’s like something out of one of those shitty disaster movies.
Click to expand...

How does climate change affect earthquakes?
Click to expand...

Never said it did.

Tuckerfan · Aug 20, 2023

Bickendan · Aug 20, 2023

Wait, my spam folder's finally empty? Thank you, Hillary!

Tuckerfan · Aug 21, 2023

Tererune · Aug 21, 2023

Tuckerfan said: ↑

View attachment 69565
Click to expand...

That is so wrong. We all know that is just a rebranded australian.

The Original Faceman · Aug 21, 2023

We will rebuild!

Tuckerfan · Aug 23, 2023

I can't find it now, and it was a bit hard to understand since it was written for a trade publication, but it was an article about how these long periods of high heat are pointing out a problem with regulations that nobody knows how to fix (sorta). In places like AZ, apartment complexes are required to have a cooling system (could be AC, could be a swamp cooler, etc.) that keeps the air temp no hotter than 82 F, during the warmest parts of the year. Sounds reasonable, right? 82 F is hot enough so that if there's a minor issue with the AC, a tech doesn't have to show up immediately to fix it (or the residents have to evacuate until it can be fixed), and also "cool" enough that if it needs repair, but there's a long delay (because everybody's unit has died), then death isn't likely a result before it can be fixed.

One small problem. If you haven't noticed this happening by now, you will, sooner or later. The air in your place might be at 82 F but it still feels hot, because the heat that the building has absorbed is radiating to the interior, making it feel warmer than the simple air temp would indicate how warm the place is.

Now, how to fix this. In the short term, this means better AC units than one currently has. Newer ones work better, and put out colder air, so if your current unit working at full-capacity can barely keep the air temps in your place at 82 F, sticking in a new one will lower both your energy use and house-hold temps. Long term, if we don't do something about all the carbon in the air, we're fucking boned.

Tuckerfan · Aug 23, 2023

Hawaiian Officials Request DNA Samples From Relatives of People Missing in Maui Wildfires

Tuckerfan · Aug 24, 2023

Drought affecting Panama Canal threatens 40% of world's cargo ship traffic

Tuckerfan · Aug 24, 2023

https://x.com/proufos/status/1694709766415867958?s=46&t=iYW3foyqIA6Tn8VWwn3nwQ

Tuckerfan · Aug 25, 2023

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/us/louisiana-wildfires-merryville-evacuation/index.html

The Original Faceman · Aug 25, 2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/presidential-debate-shows-gop-candidates-165305222.html

But the GOP doesn't believe it's real.

Tuckerfan · Aug 25, 2023

Record-Low Ice Levels in Antarctica Killed Thousands of Penguin Chicks, Study Says

Demiurge · Aug 29, 2023

If warming reaches 2 degrees C new papers estimated 1 billion estimated human deaths by the end of the century.

If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/16/6074

Steal Your Face · Aug 30, 2023

"The wildfires in Hawaii are driven by climate change."

Nope, it's more to do with (as suspected) poor land management.

The Origin of the Hawaii Fires/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future
Click to expand...

The main culprit, dry invasive and non invasive grass.

Why did this event occur?

The origin of this disaster is now becoming clear: massive amounts of dry, dead fuel (mainly grass), strong downslope winds produced by strong trades interacting with local mountains, and human ignition, most probably from powerlines.

Dry grass and shrubs

Maui was a tinderbox ready to burn explosively. As noted in a number of articles and Hawaiian government websites, a large portion of Hawaii is covered by highly flammable, invasive, non-native grasses.

Flying into Maui in late June.

Dry grass everywhere (looking north along the West Coast of Maui)Western Maui is typically wet in the winter and quite dry (and warm) during summer (see plot for a station near and north of Lahaina). Grass grows during the winter and then dies/cures during the summer, leaving brown desiccated grass. This is not climate change…this is the normal situation.
Click to expand...

It's a normal process to have dry grass in the summer time, California has it to. I've been to Maui in June, it's really hot and really dry, same with California. If you've ever been to Hawaii in the fall like I have, Oahu, it 's humid an rainy. It rains almost every morning, even if it's brief. Apparently last winter there was a lot of rainfall which resulted a lot more grass growing, which means more fuel to burn in the summer.

This year the winter was particularly wet, enhancing Maui grass volume, followed by a dry summer. A huge supply of dead fuel was ready to burn.

There has been a lot of talk in the media about drought and even “flash drought” driven by climate change (see Seattle Times headline below). This is all silly and irrelevant. The opposite of drought last winter resulted in lots of grass and even a normal summer would have resulted in the grass ready to burn now.

Also important is that the grasses are 1-10hr fuels that dry within hours under the proper conditions (low relative humidity, winds, sun). The conditions earlier this week were optimal for drying with warm, dry, downslope flow. The grasses could have been drenched a few days before and burned under such conditions. Climate change is irrelevant in this situation.
Click to expand...

Then you have strong trade winds that were predicted by the NOAA HRR model so the Hawaiian government could have prepared for this. These winds helped pushed the fire outward, apparently started by electrical cables.

The Winds

Lahaina was hit by powerful winds, with gusts exceeding 60 mph. Winds that provided oxygen to the fires, pushed the fire quickly forward, and downed powerlines, helping spark the fires.

There is a lot of talk about the winds coming from hurricane Dora, which passed 800 km to the south of Hawaii (see satellite image below).

The winds that hit Lahaina were NOT hurricane winds.

The winds that helped destroy Lahaina were caused by strong trade winds, produced mainly by enhanced high pressure to the north, interacting with Maui terrain to produce strong/dry downslope winds.

These were localized strong winds that amazingly were well predicted by the NOAA HRRR model and others.
Click to expand...

These were not hurricane winds as the media originally reported.

Hurricane Dora was a small storm that passed well south of Hawaii. The strong winds of the hurricane did not significantly affect Hawaii as some claim.

NOAA map of the path of strong winds from Hurricane Dora

During the last day UW Research Scientist David Ovens, a member of my research group, ran the WRF weather prediction model at high resolution for this case.

The results are stunning. Below is the 27h forecast of wind gusts at 8 PM PDT on Tuesday, Aug. 8th. Gusts to around 65 knots (75 mph) around Lahaina (color shading). Pressure is also shown as are the wind vectors. A life-threatening prediction.

Moderate winds approached the mountains of West Maui and then accelerated down the western slopes of the terrain. A stable near crest level assisted.

Strong winds were also observed over central Maui west of Haleakala volcano: more grassfires occurred there.

Let me repeat: these were NOT hurricane winds but local downslope wind accelerations, produced by the occurrence of perfect meteorological conditions, something I will review in a future blog.

An analog to such wind acceleration is the strong winds that can occur in Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend, Washington under strong easterly (from the east) flow.
Click to expand...

It also looks like NOAA and the state government waited too long to put out warnings.

We Can Make Sure This Never Happens Again

First, it is essential the actual causes of the fire be understood (extensive dry grass, strong local winds), not climate change and “flash droughts.” Only a science-based, rigorous understanding of the wildfire’s origins can lead to a better outcome in the future. Incorrect, politized explanations work directly against solving the problem.

Second, many more wind observations are needed. The weather observing network on Maui and particularly western Maui is totally inadequate, as shown by the map below.

Virtually no wind observations around Lahaina. Unbelievable. Weather observations are critical for understanding the wind threat, to warn the population. Wind observations foster decisions to de-energize powerlines to prevent ignitions.

California has learned this lesson and has installed thousands of weather observation sites. Hawaii needs hundreds.

Third, much better use of weather forecast models for warning and decision-making is required. As shown above, current weather prediction technology is so good that most localized wind threats can be forecast well in advance.

The National Weather Service waited way too long to put out a Red Flag Warning (9:26 AM on August 8th). And with the intense winds predicted by the NOAA HRRR model, MUCH more severe warnings should have been made. NOAA and the State of Hawaii need to work out a comprehensive plan for better warning of such dire threats to life and property.

Powerline De-energization

Hawaii electric utilities should immediately make plans to turn off the power to threatened areas when strong winds are either observed or predicted. California and Northwest utilities have already begun this life and pre

The combination of rigorous science, more observations, better use of models, stronger and more aggressive warnings, and powerline de-energization can ensure that a tragedy like this week will never occur again in the Hawaiian Islands.
Click to expand...

So it looks like poor land management, such as controlled fires and clearing under brush, (this happens in California too), powerful, predicted trade winds and lack of government action are to blame for why these wildfires got out of control. There are also theories that real estate developers wanted the land to burn to get the poor people out and there are rumors that the police blocked escape routes, but I'll let you guys do your own research on that.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08...s-preventing-a-similar-tragedy-in-the-future/

Tuckerfan · Aug 31, 2023

Steal Your Face said: ↑

"The wildfires in Hawaii are driven by climate change."

Nope, it's more to do with (as suspected) poor land management.

The Origin of the Hawaii Fires/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future
Click to expand...

The main culprit, dry invasive and non invasive grass.

Why did this event occur?

The origin of this disaster is now becoming clear: massive amounts of dry, dead fuel (mainly grass), strong downslope winds produced by strong trades interacting with local mountains, and human ignition, most probably from powerlines.

Dry grass and shrubs

Maui was a tinderbox ready to burn explosively. As noted in a number of articles and Hawaiian government websites, a large portion of Hawaii is covered by highly flammable, invasive, non-native grasses.

Flying into Maui in late June.

Dry grass everywhere (looking north along the West Coast of Maui)Western Maui is typically wet in the winter and quite dry (and warm) during summer (see plot for a station near and north of Lahaina). Grass grows during the winter and then dies/cures during the summer, leaving brown desiccated grass. This is not climate change…this is the normal situation.
Click to expand...

It's a normal process to have dry grass in the summer time, California has it to. I've been to Maui in June, it's really hot and really dry, same with California. If you've ever been to Hawaii in the fall like I have, Oahu, it 's humid an rainy. It rains almost every morning, even if it's brief. Apparently last winter there was a lot of rainfall which resulted a lot more grass growing, which means more fuel to burn in the summer.

This year the winter was particularly wet, enhancing Maui grass volume, followed by a dry summer. A huge supply of dead fuel was ready to burn.

There has been a lot of talk in the media about drought and even “flash drought” driven by climate change (see Seattle Times headline below). This is all silly and irrelevant. The opposite of drought last winter resulted in lots of grass and even a normal summer would have resulted in the grass ready to burn now.

Also important is that the grasses are 1-10hr fuels that dry within hours under the proper conditions (low relative humidity, winds, sun). The conditions earlier this week were optimal for drying with warm, dry, downslope flow. The grasses could have been drenched a few days before and burned under such conditions. Climate change is irrelevant in this situation.
Click to expand...

Then you have strong trade winds that were predicted by the NOAA HRR model so the Hawaiian government could have prepared for this. These winds helped pushed the fire outward, apparently started by electrical cables.

The Winds

Lahaina was hit by powerful winds, with gusts exceeding 60 mph. Winds that provided oxygen to the fires, pushed the fire quickly forward, and downed powerlines, helping spark the fires.

There is a lot of talk about the winds coming from hurricane Dora, which passed 800 km to the south of Hawaii (see satellite image below).

The winds that hit Lahaina were NOT hurricane winds.

The winds that helped destroy Lahaina were caused by strong trade winds, produced mainly by enhanced high pressure to the north, interacting with Maui terrain to produce strong/dry downslope winds.

These were localized strong winds that amazingly were well predicted by the NOAA HRRR model and others.
Click to expand...

These were not hurricane winds as the media originally reported.

Hurricane Dora was a small storm that passed well south of Hawaii. The strong winds of the hurricane did not significantly affect Hawaii as some claim.

NOAA map of the path of strong winds from Hurricane Dora

During the last day UW Research Scientist David Ovens, a member of my research group, ran the WRF weather prediction model at high resolution for this case.

The results are stunning. Below is the 27h forecast of wind gusts at 8 PM PDT on Tuesday, Aug. 8th. Gusts to around 65 knots (75 mph) around Lahaina (color shading). Pressure is also shown as are the wind vectors. A life-threatening prediction.

Moderate winds approached the mountains of West Maui and then accelerated down the western slopes of the terrain. A stable near crest level assisted.

Strong winds were also observed over central Maui west of Haleakala volcano: more grassfires occurred there.

Let me repeat: these were NOT hurricane winds but local downslope wind accelerations, produced by the occurrence of perfect meteorological conditions, something I will review in a future blog.

An analog to such wind acceleration is the strong winds that can occur in Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend, Washington under strong easterly (from the east) flow.
Click to expand...

It also looks like NOAA and the state government waited too long to put out warnings.

We Can Make Sure This Never Happens Again

First, it is essential the actual causes of the fire be understood (extensive dry grass, strong local winds), not climate change and “flash droughts.” Only a science-based, rigorous understanding of the wildfire’s origins can lead to a better outcome in the future. Incorrect, politized explanations work directly against solving the problem.

Second, many more wind observations are needed. The weather observing network on Maui and particularly western Maui is totally inadequate, as shown by the map below.

Virtually no wind observations around Lahaina. Unbelievable. Weather observations are critical for understanding the wind threat, to warn the population. Wind observations foster decisions to de-energize powerlines to prevent ignitions.

California has learned this lesson and has installed thousands of weather observation sites. Hawaii needs hundreds.

Third, much better use of weather forecast models for warning and decision-making is required. As shown above, current weather prediction technology is so good that most localized wind threats can be forecast well in advance.

The National Weather Service waited way too long to put out a Red Flag Warning (9:26 AM on August 8th). And with the intense winds predicted by the NOAA HRRR model, MUCH more severe warnings should have been made. NOAA and the State of Hawaii need to work out a comprehensive plan for better warning of such dire threats to life and property.

Powerline De-energization

Hawaii electric utilities should immediately make plans to turn off the power to threatened areas when strong winds are either observed or predicted. California and Northwest utilities have already begun this life and pre

The combination of rigorous science, more observations, better use of models, stronger and more aggressive warnings, and powerline de-energization can ensure that a tragedy like this week will never occur again in the Hawaiian Islands.
Click to expand...

So it looks like poor land management, such as controlled fires and clearing under brush, (this happens in California too), powerful, predicted trade winds and lack of government action are to blame for why these wildfires got out of control. There are also theories that real estate developers wanted the land to burn to get the poor people out and there are rumors that the police blocked escape routes, but I'll let you guys do your own research on that.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08...s-preventing-a-similar-tragedy-in-the-future/
Click to expand...

Okay, now give us the names of the climatologists who said that the wildfires were 100% caused by global warming. Not news stories quoting reporters or politicians, or even wankers like us, here. But actual climatologists who said that nothing but global warming was responsible for the fires. The folks who said that it might have played a factor, but ones who said it was the only factor.

Tuckerfan · Sep 1, 2023

Greece's wildfires are declared as EU's largest on record

Bickendan · Sep 1, 2023

Hope they're not fighting Greece fires with water...

Tuckerfan · Sep 2, 2023

https://futurism.com/the-byte/exxon-predicts-climate-efforts-fail

We Are Borg · Sep 2, 2023

Demiurge said: ↑

estimated 1 billion estimated human deaths by the end of the century.
Click to expand...

So you're saying there's an upside to climate change?

matthunter · Sep 2, 2023

We Are Borg said: ↑

Demiurge said: ↑

estimated 1 billion estimated human deaths by the end of the century.
Click to expand...

So you're saying there's an upside to climate change?
Click to expand...

Not as much as the death of 1 human billionaire would be.

We Are Borg · Sep 2, 2023

matthunter said: ↑

We Are Borg said: ↑

Demiurge said: ↑

estimated 1 billion estimated human deaths by the end of the century.
Click to expand...

So you're saying there's an upside to climate change?
Click to expand...

Not as much as the death of 1 human billionaire would be.
Click to expand...

Why not both?

Tuckerfan · Sep 4, 2023

https://x.com/tveitdal/status/1698640928632684714?s=46&t=iYW3foyqIA6Tn8VWwn3nwQ

Tuckerfan · Sep 4, 2023

https://x.com/solar_chase/status/1698691804026032500?s=46&t=iYW3foyqIA6Tn8VWwn3nwQ

Tuckerfan · Sep 6, 2023

This Has Officially Been the Hottest Summer Ever Recorded

Tuckerfan · Sep 6, 2023

Biden cancels Trump drilling leases in Alaska's largest wildlife refuge

Tuckerfan · Sep 9, 2023

https://x.com/99blackbaloons/status/1700394375371424144?s=46&t=iYW3foyqIA6Tn8VWwn3nwQ

Tuckerfan · Sep 14, 2023

Drought worsened, expected to intensify across Hawaii

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